Resumen Objetivo: cuantificar la incertidumbre asociada con la estimación del valor actual del ciclo económico. Metodología: se emplea el filtro de Baxter y King en una serie de tiempo ampliada con proyecciones, asumiendo caminata aleatoria, y se construyen intervalos de confianza para el ciclo de manera analítica y con bootstrap. Limitaciones: la calidad de los intervalos de confianza se deteriora en presencia de cambio estructural en la serie de tiempo. Originalidad: la originalidad subyace en proponer una metodología para determinar la fase actual del ciclo económico de manera conjunta con una cuantificación de la incertidumbre respecto a tal medición. Conclusión: para Costa Rica, el método propuesto conduce a estimaciones del ciclo económico menos sensibles a nuevos datos que lo obtenido con el filtro de Hodrick y Prescott, y simulaciones muestran que los intervalos de confianza propuestos proveen la confianza nominal especificada.

Abstract Objetive: To quantify the uncertainty associated to the estimation of the current value of the business cycle. Methodology: The Baxter and King filter is applied to an time series expanded with forecasts, assuming a random walk, and confidence intervals are build for the cyclical component both analytically and using bootstrap. Limitations: The quality of the confidence 1 intervals deteriorates when there is a structural break in the time series. Originality: The original contribution of this article is a proposed methodology to jointly determined the current phase of the business cycle and the uncertainty associated with such measurement. Conclusions: For Costa Rica, the proposed method provides estimations of the business cycle that are less sensitive to new data points than the Hodrick and Prescott filter, and simulations show that the proposed confidence intervals provide the specified nominal confidence.

Resumen El Lean Startup proporciona un enfoque iterativo y basado en hipótesis para la creación de negocios y el desarrollo de productos, promoviendo la toma de decisiones basada en datos al involucrar a los potenciales usuarios y clientes desde el principio. A pesar del creciente interés académico, la discusión sobre la utilidad y los beneficios del Lean Startup continúa. Con el objetivo de contribuir a la comprensión de cómo las organizaciones incorporan los principios del Lean Startup, se realiza una revisión sistemática de la literatura para identificar los sectores en los que se ha analizado su aplicación, los modelos de adaptación seguidos por las organizaciones, y los factores clave para su adopción en organizaciones establecidas. Estos hallazgos contribuyen a avanzar en el conocimiento sobre la adopción de los principios, herramientas y técnicas del Lean Startup en las organizaciones, y facilitan el progreso en el debate académico en torno a su utilidad y aplicación en diversos contextos organizacionales.

Abstract Lean Startup provides an iterative, hypothesis-driven approach to business creation and product development, promoting data-driven decision-making by involving potential users and customers during the development cycle. Despite increased academic attention, the debate on the benefits of Lean Startup is open. To contribute to the understanding of how organisations incorporate Lean Startup principles, this study conducts a systematic literature review and identifies the industries in which its application has been analysed, the adaptation models followed by organisations, and the key drivers for its adoption in new and established organisations. The study's findings contribute to advancing knowledge on the adoption of Lean Startup principles, tools, and techniques in organisations. The results also help to the academic debate surrounding the usefulness and application of Lean Startup principles across different organisational contexts.

Abstract: This paper explores the aggregate income risk offormal workers in Argentina, using a longitudinal database that contains information on approximately half a million formal employees in the private sector for a span of twenty years. We estimate quantile regression models to measure the sensitivity of real wages to the business cycle along the conditional and unconditional labor earnings distribution, thus capturing the asymmetry of aggregate economic impacts on wages. The main result is that income risk decreases along the conditional and unconditional labor earnings distribution, showing that individuals located at the lower part of the distribution are more exposed to the fortunes of the aggregate economy. In addition, low-income individuals suffer a stronger fall in wages when economy declines than the increase that their experiment when business cycle is in its expansion phase, which, in a very volatile economy like Argentina, implies a deterioration over time of their remuneration.

Resumen: Este trabajo explora el riesgo agregado de ingresos de los trabajadores formales de Argentina, utilizando una base de datos longitudinal que contiene información de aproximadamente medio millón de empleados formales del sector privado para un período de veinte años. Estimamos modelos de regresión por cuantiles para medir la sensibilidad de las remuneraciones al ciclo económico a lo largo de la distribución condicional y no condicional de los salarios, capturando la asimetría de los impactos de la actividad económica en las remuneraciones. El resultado principal es que el riesgo de ingresos decrece a lo largo de la distribución condicional y no condicional de los salarios, mostrando que los individuos ubicados en la parte inferior de la distribución están más expuestos a los vaivenes de la economía agregada. Además, los individuos de bajos ingresos sufren una caída en los salarios cuando la actividad declina mayor que el incremento que experimentan cuando el ciclo económico está en su fase expansiva, lo que, en una economía muy volátil como la de Argentina, implica un deterioro de sus remuneraciones a lo largo del tiempo.

ABSTRACT: This paper identified the intangible aspects (IA) that generate impacts in companies of the agricultural sector in the different stages of the companies life cycle. This paper is based on a systematic review methodology to identify intangibles in the agricultural sector. Studies on the life cycle of companies were analyzed to classify the impact of intangible aspects according to the reality of companies. Identify the intangible aspects that impact the agricultural sector through a review of the scientific literature. How intangible aspects affect each stage of the life cycle of companies in the sector shows that they have a different impact depending on the period in which the company is located. Although, much of the previous literature has suggested that intangible aspects have positive effects on a variety of performance variables, there are no scientific studies that specifically address the importance of these intangible aspects in the life cycle of companies in the agricultural sector. ABSTRACT IA (IA located Although variables

RESUMO: O objetivo deste trabalho é identificar os aspectos intangíveis (AI) que geram impactos nas empresas do sector agrícola nas diferentes fases do ciclo de vida das empresas. Para isso, utilizamos a metodologia de revisão sistemática para identificar os intangíveis no setor agrícola. Foram analisados estudos sobre o ciclo de vida das empresas para classificar o impacto dos aspectos intangíveis de acordo com a realidade das empresas. A forma como os aspectos intangíveis afetam cada fase do ciclo de vida das empresas do setor mostra que estes apresentam um impacto diferente consoante o período em que a empresa se encontra. Embora grande parte da literatura anterior tenha sugerido que os aspectos intangíveis têm efeitos positivos em diferentes variáveis de desempenho, não existem estudos científicos que abordem especificamente a importância destes aspectos intangíveis no ciclo de vida das empresas do setor agrícola. RESUMO AI (AI isso encontra desempenho

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic imposed many market changes, driven partially by new consumer needs. In the electronic commerce field, changes occurred in parallel to an upsurge in demand, directly impacting logistics service quality. Within that context, this paper seeks a way of assessing the quality of e-commerce logistics, based on end-customer perceptions at the close of the purchasing cycle. The objective is thus to develop a mathematical model based on the artificial intelligence precepts that can interpret qualitative expressions captured through a questionnaire. Such values form partial indexes and the E-Commerce Logistics Quality Index (IQLE). After processing 180 records, it was noted that three of the seven analyzed attributes scored below 5.0, denoting some concern, but also opening up opportunities for improvement and the development of marketing solutions. COVID19 COVID 19 COVID-1 needs field demand context ecommerce e endcustomer end customer cycle questionnaire ECommerce E Commerce IQLE. IQLE . (IQLE) 18 records 50 5 0 5.0 concern solutions COVID1 1 COVID- (IQLE 5.

RESUMO É fato que com a pandemia da COVID-19 ocorreram muitas mudanças de mercado, em parte, impulsionadas pelas novas necessidades dos consumidores. No âmbito do comércio eletrônico, as mudanças aconteceram em paralelo com o aumento rápido de demanda, impactando diretamente na qualidade do serviço logístico prestado. É nesse contexto que este artigo busca desenvolver uma forma de avaliar a qualidade da logística do e-commerce, baseando-se na percepção do cliente final ao final do ciclo do pedido. Para tanto, objetiva-se desenvolver um modelo matemático, baseando-se nos preceitos da inteligência artificial, que possa interpretar expressões qualitativas, capturadas por intermédio de questionário, transformando-as em valores quantitativos, passíveis de análise no mundo real. Tais valores formam índices parciais e o IQLE (Índice da Qualidade da Logística do E-commerce). Após o processamento de 180 registros, observou-se que dos sete atributos analisados, três deles redundaram em nota abaixo de 5,0, denotando certa preocupação, mas oportunidade de melhora e desenvolvimento de soluções mercadológicas. COVID19 COVID 19 COVID-1 mercado parte consumidores eletrônico demanda prestado ecommerce, ecommerce commerce, commerce e-commerce baseandose baseando se pedido tanto objetivase objetiva matemático artificial qualitativas questionário transformandoas transformando quantitativos real Índice Ecommerce. Ecommerce E . E-commerce) 18 registros observouse observou analisados 50 5 0 5,0 preocupação mercadológicas COVID1 1 COVID- E-commerce 5,

ABSTRACT Objective: comprehend the challenges and solutions faced by a non-technological and non-profit organization, acting within a coopetitive environment, in the construction of a multisided platform business model. Method: utilizing a qualitative case study approach, we investigated FEBRAFAR, a multisided platform of drugstore retailers, manufacturers, and service providers. Data collection and analysis was based on the following categories: (a) the methods through which the platform generates value for its diverse customer segments, (b) the intricate contours of its value configuration endeavor, and (c) its strategies for value appropriation to ensure both sustainability and growth. Results: the challenges in establishing an efficiently functioning multisided platform business model included: getting resources; member's attraction; and resistance to adopting best management practices. The solutions contained the development of value creation techniques for its varied customer segments by reducing transactional friction with customers and suppliers, a comprehensive value configuration process, and value appropriation that promote sustainability and growth to these drugstore chains. Conclusion: the paper shows how FEBRAFAR got the solution of value creation and appropriation of the platform business model by orchestrating the interactions of competing entities within the stakeholder ecosystem that engage in collaboration. By establishing clear rules and interaction protocols, a multisided platform can facilitate coordination among competing entities, thereby enabling collaborative value co-creation for all involved stakeholders. This finding contributes to the broader understanding of strategic management in multisided platforms, particularly in non-technology contexts. Objective nontechnological non technological nonprofit profit organization environment Method approach retailers manufacturers providers categories (a b (b endeavor c (c Results included resources members member s attraction practices suppliers process chains Conclusion collaboration protocols cocreation co stakeholders platforms nontechnology technology contexts

Resumen Cuando afectan a un considerable número de víctimas, los procesos de remediación en contextos posteriores a desastres enfrentan obstáculos relacionados con la evaluación y medición exacta de las pérdidas individuales. Casos recientes han importado el concepto de “justicia posible”, aplicado también al Fondo de Compensación de las Víctimas del 11 de Septiembre y en contextos de justicia de transición. Mientras que, por un lado, la consecución de la reparación integral puede ser difícil, demorada y a veces imposible, por otro lado, el recurso a la “justicia posible” puede servir como un marco teórico para legitimar reparaciones insuficientes y el mantenimiento del abuso de derechos. El artículo examina el uso del paradigma de “justicia posible” y la aplicabilidad de los Principios Rectores de las Naciones Unidas sobre Empresas y Derechos Humanos (UNGPs) en casos de desastre para responsabilizar a las empresas por la compensación de daños por pérdidas individuales. Se sostiene que cualquier parametrización, cuando es aceptada, debe ser rigurosa, basada en métodos sólidos y transparentes para evaluar las pérdidas de las personas y comunidades afectadas. Las necesidades de los afectados y el conocimiento tradicional deben guiar el proceso, con valores mínimos establecidos que no impidan ajustes individuales cuando sea posible. Además, los procedimientos deben estar abiertos a revisión siempre que surjan nuevos datos sobre los impactos del desastre o sobre las necesidades de las partes afectadas, especialmente teniendo en cuenta las pérdidas actuales y futuras. víctimas posible, posible , 1 transición lado difícil imposible derechos UNGPs (UNGPs parametrización aceptada rigurosa afectadas proceso Además futuras

Resumo Ao afetar um número considerável de vítimas, os processos de reparação em contextos pós-desastre enfrentam obstáculos relacionados à avaliação e mensuração precisa da extensão das perdas individuais. Casos recentes têm importado o conceito de “justiça possível”, também aplicado ao Fundo de Compensação das Vítimas de 11 de Setembro e em contextos de justiça de transição. Enquanto, de um lado, a consecução da reparação integral possa ser difícil, demorada e por vezes impossível, de outro lado, o recurso à “justiça possível” pode servir como um arcabouço teórico para legitimar reparações insuficientes e a manutenção do abuso de direitos. O artigo examina o uso do paradigma de “justiça possível” e a aplicabilidade dos Princípios Orientadores das Nações Unidas sobre Empresas e Direitos Humanos (UNGPs) em casos de desastre para responsabilizar as empresas pela compensação de danos por perdas individuais. Conclui-se que qualquer parametrização, quando aceita, deve ser rigorosa, baseada em métodos sólidos e transparentes para avaliar as perdas das pessoas e das comunidades afetadas. As necessidades dos atingidos e o conhecimento tradicional devem guiar o processo, com valores mínimos estabelecidos que não impeçam ajustes individuais quando possível. Além disso, os procedimentos devem estar abertos à revisão sempre que novos dados surgirem sobre os impactos do desastre ou sobre as necessidades das partes afetadas, principalmente considerando as perdas atuais e futuras. vítimas pósdesastre pós possível, possível , 1 transição Enquanto lado difícil impossível direitos UNGPs (UNGPs Concluise Conclui se parametrização aceita rigorosa afetadas processo disso futuras

Abstract When affecting a considerable number of victims, post-disaster remedy processes face significant obstacles related to assessing and measuring the exact extent of individual losses. Recent cases have adopted the concept of “rough justice”, a method also applied to the September 11th Victim Compensation Fund and in transitional justice contexts. While achieving full compensation may be difficult, time-consuming, and sometimes impossible, resorting to “rough justice” can serve as a theoretical framework to legitimize insufficient reparations and the perpetuation of rights abuses. The article examines the application of the “rough justice” paradigm and assesses the relevance of the United Nations Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights (UNGPs) in disaster cases. It focuses on holding companies accountable for compensating damages incurred by individuals. The conclusion emphasizes the necessity for any accepted parametrization to be rigorous, based on solid and transparent methods for assessing the losses of affected individuals and communities. The process should be guided by the needs of those affected and incorporate traditional knowledge, establishing minimum values while allowing for individual adjustments when possible. Furthermore, procedures should be open to review whenever new data arises regarding the impacts of the disaster or the evolving needs of the affected parties, especially considering ongoing and future losses. victims postdisaster post rough justice, , th contexts difficult timeconsuming, timeconsuming time consuming, consuming time-consuming impossible abuses UNGPs (UNGPs rigorous communities knowledge possible Furthermore parties

PURPOSE: This study aims to investigate the impacts of digital transformation on enterprise innovation resilience, with a focus on understanding how digital transformation influences innovation resilience across different stages during the life cycle of an enterprise DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Data were collected from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2012 to 2022. Industries with unique financial reporting characteristics, special treatment (ST) samples, and samples with missing data are excluded to obtain a final dataset of 18 304 observations. A regression model is employed to examine the dual effect of digital transformation on enterprise innovation resilience FINDINGS/RESULTS: The findings reveal a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between digital transformation and enterprise innovation resilience. For companies at different lifecycle stages, digital transformation significantly enhances innovation resilience during the growth phase. However, for mature and declining companies, digital transformation still exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with innovation resilience, albeit with a relatively lower empowerment effect during the decline phase PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Enterprises are advised to leverage the positive effects of digital transformation on innovation resilience while avoiding the pitfalls of excessive digitisation. Flexibility in adapting digital transformation strategies according to the enterprise lifecycle stage is recommended. Furthermore, enterprises should prioritise the coordinated development of various factors contributing to innovation resilience ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This study extends the examination of innovation resilience from macro-industry to micro-enterprise levels and provides insights into the dynamics of digital transformation effects on innovation resilience across different lifecycle stages. Additionally, it highlights the importance of considering multiple pathways through which digital transformation influences innovation resilience

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar o comportamento da distribuição de dividendos das empresas brasileiras de capital aberto de acordo com os efeitos dos ciclos econômicos, comparando as fases de recuperação, expansão, recessão e contração (Schumpeter, 1935) com as fases de expansão e recessão conforme o National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Originalidade/valor: O método de classificação das fases dos ciclos econômicos de acordo com Schumpeter (1935) apresenta maiores detalhes em relação ao método NBER. As quatro fases apresentam características diferentes e não são observadas quando usadas apenas as duas fases do modelo do NBER. Design/metodologia/abordagem: Para atingir o objetivo da pesquisa, foram coletadas informações de 243 empresas de capital aberto listadas na Bolsa de Valores Brasileira entre os anos 1997 e 2021. Os dados foram obtidos na base de dados da Refinitiv, e utilizaram-se os modelos de regressão de dados em painel com efeitos aleatórios para analisar duas hipóteses definidas neste estudo. As hipóteses afirmam que o comportamento da relação entre o pagamento de dividendos e as fases dos ciclos econômicos de baixa (alta) do NBER é diferente em relação às fases de recessão e contração (recuperação e expansão) conforme Schumpeter. Resultados: Os resultados indicaram não rejeição das hipóteses, reforçando a importância da análise das quatro fases dos ciclos econômicos e de forma complementar por investidores, analistas, gestores e demais usuários ao analisar o pagamento de dividendos por companhias abertas nos diferentes níveis de atividade econômica do país. Objetivo recuperação Schumpeter, (Schumpeter 1935 . (NBER) Originalidade/valor Originalidadevalor Originalidade valor (1935 Design/metodologia/abordagem Designmetodologiaabordagem Design metodologia abordagem pesquisa 24 199 2021 Refinitiv utilizaramse utilizaram se estudo alta (alta Resultados investidores analistas país 193 (NBER (193 2 19 202 (19 1 20 (1 (

ABSTRACT Purpose: To analyze the behavior of the dividend distribution of publicly traded Brazilian companies according to the effects of the business cycles, comparing the stages of recovery, expansion, recession, and contraction (Schumpeter, 1935) with the stages of expansion and recession according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Originality/value: According to Schumpeter (1935), classifying the stages of the business cycle presents greater details to the NBER method because the four stages show different characteristics that are not observed when only the two stages of the NBER model are used. Design/methodology/approach: Information was collected from 243 publicly traded companies listed on the Brazilian Stock Exchange between 1997 and 2021 to achieve the research objective. Data were obtained from the Refinitiv database, using panel data regression models with random effects to analyze two hypotheses defined in this study. The hypotheses state that the behavior of the relationship between the payment of dividends and the stages of the NBER’s bearish (high) business cycles is different from the recession and contraction stages (recovery and expansion), according to Schumpeter. Findings: The results indicated the non-rejection of the hypotheses, reinforcing the importance of the analysis of the four stages of the business cycles and complementary form by investors, analysts, managers, and other users when analyzing the payment of dividends by publicly held companies at the different levels of economic activity in the country. Purpose recovery Schumpeter, (Schumpeter 1935 NBER. . (NBER) Originality/value Originalityvalue Originality value 1935, , (1935) used Design/methodology/approach Designmethodologyapproach Design methodology approach 24 199 202 objective database study NBERs s high (high expansion) Findings nonrejection non rejection investors analysts managers country 193 (NBER (1935 2 19 20 (193 1 (19 (1 (

Résumé Dans le cadre du deuxième cycle du Programme pour l'évaluation internationale des compétences des adultes (PIAAC), un petit groupe de pays européens, dont le Portugal, a ajouté à la recherche réalisée à travers l’« Enquête internationale sur les compétences des adultes », l’élément principal de l’étude, un processus d'enquête supplémentaire, destiné aux employeurs et orienté vers la production de donnés additionnels sur les demandes de compétences des entreprises, dans des contextes économiques, comme l’actuel, souvent caractérisés par des déséquilibres entre l’offre et la demande de qualifications et de compétences. Cet article présente succinctement le but, la méthodologie et les principaux détails techniques de l’application du « Module d’Employeurs » du PIAAC au Portugal et discute de façon préliminaire quelques résultats de cette enquête, cherchant ainsi à susciter l’approfondissement de l’utilisation des données récemment mis à disposition du publique.

Resumen En el marco del segundo ciclo del Programa para la Evaluación Internacional de las Competencias de los Adultos (PIAAC), un pequeño grupo de países europeos, entre ellos Portugal, decidió añadir a la recogida de datos realizada a través de la “Encuesta de Competencias de los Adultos”, la componente principal del Programa, una otra encuesta, dirigida a los empleadores y orientada a la producción de información sobre las respectivas demandas de competencias, en contextos empresariales, como el actual, a menudo caracterizados por desequilibrios entre la oferta y la demanda de cualificaciones y competencias. Este artículo presenta de manera sucinta el propósito, la metodología y los principales detalles técnicos de la aplicación del “Módulo de Empleadores” de PIAAC en Portugal y discute preliminarmente algunos de los resultados obtenidos, buscando así lanzar pistas para futuras investigaciones a llevar a cabo utilizando los datos recientemente hechos disponibles.

Abstract Currently in its second cycle, the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) includes, besides its main component, the “Survey of Adult Skills”, an “Employer Module on Skill Gaps” containing several questions designed to measure the imbalances between the supply and the demand for the skills needed in workplaces. A small group of European countries, which Portugal integrated, added this additional inquiry to the data collection process that was developed within the “Survey of Adult Skills”. The aim was to enlarge the available information on employers’ perspectives on skill gaps and how they relate to companies’ business strategies, and hiring, training and human resource practices. This article presents the goals, methodology and main technical features of the implementation of PIAAC’s “Employer Module” in Portugal, and discusses in preliminary terms some of its results, thus seeking to instigate further research carried out using the data that was recently made available.

Resumo No âmbito do segundo ciclo do Programa Internacional para a Avaliação das Competências dos Adultos (PIAAC), um pequeno grupo de países europeus, que Portugal integrou, decidiu juntar à recolha de dados realizada através do “Inquérito às Competências dos Adultos”, principal componente do Programa, um processo adicional de inquirição, direcionado para emp regadores e orientado para a produção de informação sobre as respetivas demandas por competências, em contextos de atuação empresarial, como os atuais, frequentemente pautados por desequilíbrios entre oferta e procura de qualificações e de competências. O presente artigo apresenta de forma sucinta o propósito, metodologia e principais detalhes técnicos da aplicação do “Módulo de Empregadores” do PIAAC no nosso país e discute preliminarmente alguns dos resultados obtidos, procurando desse modo lançar pistas de aprofundamento da investigação a realizar com recurso aos dados entretanto disponibilizados.

Abstract The business system lacks a tool to guide the implementation of good practices in the path of evolutionary improvement of the management of physical restrictions. This research aims to design a maturity model for this management. For this, the maturity models are integrated with the management cycle, there is a model composed of three phases: Planning, Design and Execution, allowing the identification of these levels in an organization in terms of the management of physical restrictions, in addition to a group of reports and analysis of the results that serve as a guide in its strategic projection. restrictions cycle phases Planning Execution projection

Resumen: El sistema empresarial necesita herramientas que guíen la implementación de buenas prácticas en el mejoramiento de la gestión de restricciones físicas. El objetivo de esta investigación es diseñar un modelo de madurez para esta gestión. Para esto, se integran los modelos de madurez con el ciclo de gestión, modelo compuesto por tres fases: planeación, diseño y ejecución, permitiendo la identificación de estos niveles en una organización en cuanto a la gestión de restricciones físicas, además de un grupo de informes y análisis de los resultados que sirven de guía en su proyección estratégica. Resumen físicas esto fases planeación ejecución estratégica

Resumen Objetivo: Determinar la existencia del Ciclo Político Económico (CPE) en México para el periodo 1980-2021 mediante un método matemático de la física, el cual no ha sido utilizado en el campo de la economía política. Metodología: Se estudian las variables de crecimiento económico e inflación en México a través de la teoría del CPE empleando un análisis con series de Fourier, lo cual permite aproximar el comportamiento de una función cíclica. Resultados: Se ha comprobado la presencia del CPE en las últimas cuatro décadas en México, donde ha existido una diferencia considerable en los datos del último año de gobierno respecto a la aproximación realizada mediante series de Fourier. Limitaciones: Si bien, existen otros métodos que incorporan el componente aleatorio de una serie temporal dentro de la estimación, el análisis con series de Fourier puede ser considerado como determinista. Sin embargo, esto se ha convertido en un elemento explicativo dentro de la aplicación de series de Fourier en el campo de la economía. Originalidad: Es la primera vez que se realiza una aproximación del CPE con series de Fourier en México, ya que la metodología tradicional para estimar el CPE consiste en modelos autorregresivos con variables dicotómicas electorales. Por esta razón el presente ensayo puede considerarse como un estudio dentro de la econofísica. Conclusiones: Se concluye que, la aproximación del crecimiento económico y la inflación bajo la teoría del CPE llevada a cabo con series de Fourier de una iteración, permite identificar una tendencia determinista y un componente estocástico, con lo cual no solo se confirma la existencia del CPE, sino se determina la intensificación del mismo en el último año de gobierno.

Abstract Objective: Determine the existence of the Political Business Cycle (PBC) in Mexico for the 1980-2021 period through a mathematical method of physics, which has not been used in the field of political economy. Methodology: Economic growth and inflation in Mexico are studied through the PBC theory using a Fourier series analysis, which allows us to study the behavior of a cyclical function. Results: The presence of the PBC has been confirmed during the last four decades in Mexico, where a considerable difference was found in the data of the last year of government as compared to the approximation made by Fourier series. Limitations: Although there are other methods that incorporate the random component of a time series within the estimation, the Fourier series analysis is deterministic. However, this has become an explanatory element within the application of Fourier series in the field of economics. Originality: It is the first time that an approximation of the PBC through Fourier series has been carried out in Mexico, since the traditional methodology to estimate the PBC consists of autoregressive models with electoral dummy variables. Therefore, this paper might be considered as a pioneering econophysics study. Conclusion: It is concluded that the approximation of economic growth and inflation under the PBC theory carried out with Fourier series of one iteration, allows to identify a deterministic trend and a stochastic component, which not only confirms the existence of the PBC, but also leads to determine its intensification during the last year of government.

ABSTRACT We have analyzed the association between firms' life cycle stages (LCSs) and their debt maturity (DM). This paper deepens the discussion on capital structure from the perspective of the LCSs' dynamic effect associated with DM. The sample was composed by secondary data from 370 (non-financial) Brazilian listed companies in the period from 2010 to 2019, gathered quarterly. The data were analyzed through descriptive statistics, tests of differences between means and regression analysis from panel data. The results showed that the DM presents no association with LCS, following an inverted U-shape. It has been observed that the maturity stage had a positive effect on the DM, however, as companies move towards the shake-out and decline stages, DM experiences successive reductions. The findings are relevant for providing insights for future research. In addition, they have the potential to contribute to managers, board members, credit committees, capital providers in general, risk management process, and resource allocation. firms LCSs (LCSs . (DM) 37 nonfinancial non financial (non-financial 201 2019 quarterly statistics LCS Ushape. Ushape U shape. shape U-shape however shakeout shake out reductions research addition managers members committees general process allocation (DM 3 20 2

RESUMO Este trabalho analisou a associação entre os Estágios do Ciclo de Vida da Firma (ECVs) e a Maturidade da Dívida (MD). O estudo aprofunda as discussões sobre estrutura de capital a partir da análise do efeito dinâmico dos ECVs associados à MD das empresas brasileiras. A amostra foi composta por dados trimestrais de 370 empresas (não financeiras) brasileiras listadas no período de 2010 a 2019. Os dados foram analisados por meio da estatística descritiva, testes de diferenças entre as médias e análise de regressão com dados em painel. Os resultados demonstraram uma MD associação com os ECVs, seguindo um formato de U invertido. Observou-se que o estágio de Maturidade afeta positivamente a MD, contudo, à medida que as empresas transitam em direção ao estágio de Turbulência e Declínio, a MD sofre reduções sucessivas. Os achados são relevantes por proporcionarem insights para pesquisas futuras e apresentarem potencial de contribuição para gestores, conselheiros de administração, comitês de crédito e provedores de capital em geral na análise de crédito das empresas, gestão de riscos e concessão de recursos. (ECVs MD. . (MD) 37 não financeiras 201 2019 descritiva painel invertido Observouse Observou se contudo Declínio sucessivas gestores administração recursos (MD 3 20 2

Abstract The article aims to find the relationship between the ideology of the political parties and economic growth in Mexico at the subnational level, considering the Political Business Cycle (PBC) under a partisan approach. A linear regression analysis with panel data has been used, where autoregressive models have been estimated considering the data of each State of Mexico for the period 1990-2020, the left-right spectrum has been employed to locate the position of the political ideology and the gross domestic product per capita to quantify the economic growth. Empirical evidence has been found that proves the existence of the CPE in its opportunist modality and only partial evidence of the CPE in its partisan approach in Mexico, which has shown a partial systematic behavior but not cyclical.

Resumen La presente investigación tiene como objetivo encontrar la relación existente entre la ideología de los partidos políticos y el crecimiento económico en México a nivel subnacional, considerando la teoría del Ciclo Político Económico (CPE) en su enfoque partidista. Para ello, se ha utilizado un análisis de regresión lineal, donde se han estimado modelos autorregresivos, empleando datos por Entidad Federativa para el periodo 1990-2020, por lo cual se ha utilizado el espectro izquierda-derecha para ubicar el posicionamiento ideológico y el producto interno bruto para cuantificar el crecimiento económico. En el estudio, se ha encontrado evidencia empírica que prueba la existencia del CPE en su modalidad oportunista y solamente indicios del CPE en su enfoque partidista, ya que la ideología del partido político no ha incidido cíclicamente en la economía, pero sí ha tenido un efecto sistemático, aunque de forma parcial.

ABSTRACT Keynes and Hayek are usually perceived in the history of economic thought as intellectual rivals. Although it is true that in terms of policy recommendations, they have not always seen eye to eye, there are numerous theoretical elements that the two economists tend to share. This is especially true if one follows Axel Leijonhufvud (1976) in considering that Keynes’s fundamental theoretical work is the Treatise and not the General Theory. In the early 1930s, following the works of Wicksell (1989), both explained business cycles as caused by a discrepancy between savings and investment. They considered that in the modern economy the interest rate cannot speedily adjust these two magnitudes. To a certain extent, Keynes and Hayek even agreed on the dynamic sequence of prices in a “normal” depression. By the time the General Theory came out, liquidity preference obscured most of the commonalities between the two economists. Although Hayek introduced liquidity preference as a short run friction in his 1941 Pure Theory of Capital, he could not accept it as a fundamental determinant of the interest rate. However, in the 1970s Hayek began to believe that “normal” Hayekian crises could further degenerate into Keynesian depressions. By focusing on Keynes’s theoretical development prior to the elaboration of the General Theory in parallel with Hayek’s evolution throughout his life, we argue that a selective reading of their works could lead to a theoretical model in which Keynesian and Hayekian scenarios are specific cases of a more general theory. rivals recommendations share 1976 (1976 Keyness s 1930s 1989, 1989 , (1989) investment magnitudes extent normal “normal depression out 194 Capital However depressions Hayeks life theory 197 (197 198 (1989 19 (19 (198 1 (1 (

RESUMO Keynes e Hayek são geralmente vistos na história do pensamento econômico como rivais intelectuais. Embora seja verdade que, em termos de recomendações de políticas, elas nem sempre concordam, há vários elementos teóricos que os dois economistas tendem a compartilhar. Isso é especialmente verdadeiro se seguirmos Axel Leijonhufvud (1976) ao considerar que o trabalho teórico fundamental de Keynes é o Tratado e não a Teoria Geral. No início dos anos 1930, seguindo os trabalhos de Wicksell (1989), ambos explicaram os ciclos de negócios como causados por uma discrepância entre poupança e investimento. Eles consideraram que na economia moderna a taxa de juros não pode ajustar rapidamente essas duas magnitudes. Até certo ponto, Keynes e Hayek chegaram a concordar com a sequência dinâmica de preços em uma depressão “normal”. Quando a Teoria Geral foi publicada, a preferência pela liquidez obscureceu a maioria das semelhanças entre os dois economistas. Embora Hayek tenha introduzido a preferência pela liquidez como um atrito de curto prazo em sua Teoria Pura do Capital de 1941, ele não podia aceitá-la como um determinante fundamental da taxa de juros. No entanto, na década de 1970, Hayek começou a acreditar que as crises “normais” de Hayek poderiam degenerar ainda mais em depressões keynesianas. Ao focar no desenvolvimento teórico de Keynes antes da elaboração da Teoria Geral em paralelo com a evolução de Hayek ao longo de sua vida, argumentamos que uma leitura seletiva de suas obras poderia levar a um modelo teórico em que os cenários keynesiano e hayekiano são casos específicos de uma teoria geral. intelectuais políticas concordam compartilhar 1976 (1976 1930 1989, 1989 , (1989) investimento magnitudes ponto normal. normal . “normal” publicada 1941 aceitála aceitá la entanto 1970 normais “normais keynesianas vida geral 197 (197 193 198 (1989 “normal 194 19 (19 (198 1 (1 (