ABSTRACT This study analyzes how different institutional actors influenced the adoption of accounting standards based on the IPSAS in Portugal. There is a need to understand how social structures of signification, legitimation, and domination are activated by different institutional actors in the process of adopting accounting standards, particularly in a context of financial crisis. The study of the Portuguese case is particularly relevant due to the fact that the process of adopting new accounting standards based on the IPSAS took place in the context of a financial crisis related to the sovereign debt problem. Knowledge of the process of adopting accounting standards based on the IPSAS in Portugal can be useful for current and future agents of accounting changes in other countries. This research adopted a retrospective case study methodology, supported by documentary sources and semi-structured interviews as data collection and evidence generation methods. The main contribution of this study is to show the relevance of the balanced use of different social structures (signification, legitimation, and domination) in accounting change processes, as well as to show the strengthening of the power of institutional actors at the economic and political level vis-à-vis other institutional actors in contexts of financial crisis. signification legitimation problem countries methodology semistructured semi structured methods (signification processes visàvis vis à

Resumo Este estudo analisa como diferentes atores institucionais influenciaram a adoção de normas contábeis baseadas nas IPSAS em Portugal. Há necessidade de se compreenderem os acionamentos de estruturas sociais de significação, de legitimação e de dominação por diferentes atores institucionais em processos de adoção de normas contábeis, nomeadamente em contextos de crise financeira. O estudo do caso português é particularmente relevante devido ao fato de o processo de adoção de novas normas contábeis baseadas nas IPSAS ocorrer num contexto de crise financeira relacionada com a problemática das dívidas soberanas. O conhecimento do processo de adoção de normas contábeis baseadas nas IPSAS em Portugal pode ser útil para atuais e futuros agentes de mudança contábil em outros países. Esta pesquisa adotou uma metodologia de estudo de caso retrospectivo, suportada nos métodos documental e de entrevistas semiestruturadas, como métodos de coleta de dados e de geração de evidências. Este estudo contribui principalmente para mostrar a relevância do uso balanceado de diferentes estruturas sociais (significação, legitimação e dominação) em processos de mudança contábil, assim como para mostrar o reforço do poder de atores institucionais do nível econômico e político diante dos demais atores institucionais em contextos de crise financeira. significação soberanas países retrospectivo semiestruturadas evidências (significação

Abstract The objective of the study is to determine if a policy of preference for the domestic public debt market influences the development of the respective financial system. Using panel data techniques, I tested the causal relationship between the domestic marketing of public debt securities and eight indicators of financial development. For this, I used static regression models with fixed effects computed by ordinary least squares (OLS) or dynamic regression models with fixed effects computed by the generalized method of moments (GMM) in differences, depending on each case. I also used random effects models controlled by fixed effects calculated by two-stage least squares (2SLS). By rejecting the null hypothesis that the literature has been assuming as true, it was confirmed that the traditional theories of financial development were incomplete. Although the research shows that the preference for the domestic public debt securities market influences financial development -and therefore economic development-it does not explain why it hasn’t been given greater importance in less developed countries. The formulation of that answer would be more related to the fields of study in which ethics and politics move.

Resumen El objetivo del estudio es determinar si una política de preferencia por el mercado de deuda pública interna influye en el desarrollo del sistema financiero respectivo. Mediante técnicas de datos de panel, se contrastó la relación de causalidad entre el mercado interno de valores de deuda pública y ocho indicadores de desarrollo financiero. Para ello, se utilizaron modelos de regresión estática con efectos fijos computados por mínimos cuadrados ordinarios (MCO) o modelos de regresión dinámica con efectos fijos computados mediante el método generalizado de momentos (MGM) en diferencias, según era pertinente. También se usaron modelos de efectos aleatorios controlados por efectos fijos calculados por mínimos cuadrados en dos etapas (MC2E). Al rechazarse la hipótesis nula que la literatura ha asumido como cierta, se confirmó que las teorías del desarrollo financiero tradicionales estaban incompletas. Si bien la investigación muestra que la preferencia por el mercado de valores de deuda pública interna influye en el desarrollo financiero, y, por lo tanto, en el desarrollo económico, no explica por qué en países menos desarrollados no se le da una mayor importancia. La formulación de esa respuesta estaría más relacionada con campos de estudio que incluyan la ética y la política.

Resumen La Argentina atravesó un largo conflicto con los acreedores afectados por la cesación de pagos de 2001. Un grupo reducido, especializado en litigar a largos plazos, logró afectar no solo el acceso del país al mercado de capitales sino la dinámica política nacional. Se analizan aquí las coaliciones políticas que se conformaron en torno al conflicto del Estado argentino con los llamados “fondos buitre”, y los principales argumentos e ideas en torno al problema de deuda soberana. Para ello, se analizan los debates en el Congreso por la Ley de Pago Soberano de 2014 y su posterior derogación bajo la Ley de Cancelación de Deuda en Cesación de Pago de 2016. Se mapea de esta forma las principales posiciones políticas y discursos en el marco de un importante giro en el tratamiento del conflicto. Se argumenta que ambas leyes fueron claves en la configuración de las fuerzas políticas en disputa.

Abstract Argentina went through a long conflict with creditors affected by 2001 debt default. A small group, specialized in long-term litigation, managed to affect not only the country's access to the capital market but also the dynamics of the national political arena. This paper analyzes the political coalitions that were formed around the Argentine State's conflict with the so-called "vulture funds", and the main arguments and ideas surrounding the sovereign debt problem. To this end, we proceed to analyze the debates in Congress over the 2014 Sovereign Payment Law and its subsequent repeal under the 2016 Debt Cancellation in Cessation of Payment Law. It thus maps the main political positions and discourses in the context of an important shift in the treatment of the conflict. It is argued that both laws were key in shaping the contending political forces.

Abstract In 10 years of crises in the European Union (EU), the responses given to the financial recession of 2008 and to the economic consequences of the pandemic of COVID-19 in 2020 are different: from austerity we have moved to solidarity. This change in EU direction was possible because member states, who decide the path of policy in the EU, agreed to jointly issue debt to finance the post-crisis recovery from COVID-19, a solution rejected in the 2008 financial crisis. This research aims to understand why this happened, looking at “What has changed in 10 years of EU crises for joint debt issuance in the EU to go from being rejected by member states to being seen as a ‘star’ policy”. Using existing literature on the policy-making process in the two crises, media content and public opinion studies, I argue in this essay that, in the response to the COVID-19 crisis in contrast to the previous recession, weighed a number of factors such as the change in the behaviour of member states during the negotiations with the revival of the Franco-German axis in favour of joint measures; the impacts of the pandemic that motivated more solidarity among the 27; the need to resolve consequences of the previous recession; the results of the years of austerity that generated social unrest, Euroscepticism and politicisation; the prevention of worsening the democratic deficit in the EU; and also the influence of the media to common decision-making. The innovation I bring lies in the analysis of the response to this unknown phenomenon, the pandemic crisis, by 27 sovereign states abdicating their exclusive competence in the budgetary area to move forward with the issuing of joint supranational debt, in a common interest in responding to the economic consequences that contrasts with the intergovernmental response given to the previous recession. Since it has been successful in economic terms and it has been accepted by public opinion, this is now a ‘star’ policy in the EU.

Resumo Em 10 anos de crises na União Europeia (UE), as respostas dadas à recessão financeira de 2008 e às consequências económicas da pandemia de COVID-19 em 2020 são diferentes: da austeridade passou-se à solidariedade. Esta mudança de rumo comunitário foi possível porque os Estados-mem- bros, a quem cabe decidir o trajeto das políticas na UE, concordaram com a emissão conjunta de dívi- da para financiar a recuperação pós-crise da COVID-19, uma solução rejeitada na crise financeira de 2008. Esta investigação visa compreender porque é que isso aconteceu, atentando em “O que mudou em 10 anos de crises na UE para a emissão de dívida conjunta na UE deixar de ser rejeitada pelos Estados-membros para ser vista como uma política ‘estrela’”. Recorrendo à literatura existente sobre o processo de decisão política nas duas crises, a conteúdos mediáticos e a estudos de opinião pública, argumento neste ensaio que, na resposta dada à crise da COVID-19 em contraste com a da anterior recessão, pesaram fatores como a mudança de comportamento dos Estados-membros durante as negociações com o reavivar do eixo franco-alemão em prol de medidas conjuntas; os impactos da pandemia que motivaram mais solidariedade entre os 27; a necessidade de resolver consequências da anterior recessão; os resultados dos anos de austeridade que geraram agitação social, euroceticismo e politização; a prevenção de agravamento do défice democrático na UE; e ainda a influência dos meios de comunicação social à tomada de decisões comuns. A inovação que trago reside na análise da res- posta a este fenómeno desconhecido, a crise pandémica, por parte de 27 Estados soberanos que abdi- cam da sua competência exclusiva na área orçamental para avançar com emissão de dívida conjunta de cariz supranacional, num interesse comum de responder às consequências económicas que con- trasta com a resposta intergovernamental dada à anterior recessão. Por ter sido bem-sucedida em ter- mos económicos e por ter sido aceite pela opinião pública, esta é hoje uma política ‘estrela’ na UE.

Abstract After several decades of economic integration and enlargement, divergence has been increasing in the European Union (EU), with weaker member states and regions falling behind their stronger counterparts. This paper argues that the structural causes of this increasing divide are explained in terms of the divergent trajectories of interdependent economies with different productive capabilities. In the process of European integration, the Southern peripheral countries were exposed to macroeconomic policies and shocks that, although apparently neutral, generated different effects and ever increasing regional disparities. Since the formation of the EU’s Economic and Monetary Union in 1992, events representing important milestones in the process of divergence include China’s accession to the World Trade Organization, the eastward orientation of German industry, and the 2008 financial and sovereign debt crises and the ensuing austerity. In the final part, the paper evaluates whether new divides are likely to emerge in the new global context triggered now by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war.

Résumé Après plusieurs décennies d’intégration économique et d’élargissement, les divergences se sont creusées au sein de l’Union européenne, les régions et les États-membres les plus faibles accusant un retard par rapport à leurs homologues plus forts. L’article soutient que les causes structurelles de cette fracture croissante s’expliquent en termes de trajectoires divergentes d’économies interdépendantes aux capacités productives différentes. Dans le processus d’intégration européenne, les pays périphériques du Sud ont été exposés à des politiques et à des chocs macroéconomiques qui, bien qu’apparemment neutres, ont généré des effets divers et des disparités régionales croissantes. Depuis la formation de l’Union économique et monétaire en 1992, certains évènements représentent des jalons importants dans le processus de divergence, comme l’adhésion de la Chine à l’Organisation mondiale du commerce, l’orientation de l’industrie allemande vers l’Est, la crise financière et de la dette souveraine de 2008 et l’austérité qui s’en est suivie. Dans la dernière partie, l’article évalue si de nouvelles divisions sont susceptibles d’émerger dans le nouveau contexte mondial déclenché par la pandémie de COVID-19 et la guerre Russie-Ukraine.

Resumo Após várias décadas de integração e alargamento económico, as divergências têm vindo a aumentar na União Europeia, com as regiões e os Estados-Membros mais fracos a ficarem atrás dos seus homólogos mais fortes. O artigo argumenta que as causas estruturais desta divisão crescente são explicadas em termos de trajetórias divergentes de economias interdependentes com diferentes capacidades produtivas. No processo de integração europeia, os países periféricos do Sul foram expostos a políticas e choques macroeconómicos que, embora aparentemente neutros, geraram efeitos diversos e crescentes disparidades regionais. Desde a formação da União Económica e Monetária em 1992, alguns acontecimentos representaram marcos importantes no processo de divergência, como a adesão da China à Organização Mundial do Comércio, a orientação da indústria alemã para Leste, a crise financeira e da dívida soberana de 2008 e a subsequente austeridade. Na parte final, o artigo avalia se é provável que novas divisões surjam no novo contexto global desencadeado desta vez pela pandemia de COVID-19 e pela guerra Rússia-Ucrânia.

ABSTRACT This study analyzed the effects of sovereign rating and corporate governance (CG) on the capital structure of Latin American companies. A multilevel regression model was used for 823 companies listed on major Latin American stock exchanges over the period 2004-2018. The results showed that firm level is the most responsible factor for the variation in companies’ capital structure, while country level had the greatest influence on the variation in long-term debt. In the absence of CG mechanisms, sovereign rating is one of the factors not controlled by managers that can explain the capital structure of Latin American companies, which reduce their debt levels to protect themselves in the face of their countries’ sovereign rating variations. The results indicated that, despite having an audit committee and keeping independent members on the committee, firms choose to reduce their debt levels to protect themselves against the constant variations of their countries’ sovereign rating. The results also showed that CG mechanisms do not act in isolation when it comes to reducing agency problems. This research is one of the first studies to provide evidence on the implications of sovereign ratings and CG on the capital structure of firms in Latin America. (CG 82 20042018. 20042018 2004 2018. 2018 2004-2018 longterm long term countries problems America 8 2004201 200 201 2004-201 200420 20 2004-20 20042 2 2004-2 2004-

Resumo Os fundos abutres atacam Estados endividados, quando suas populações mais vulneráveis sofrem em primeira mão os efeitos da crise. Suas ações contra a Argentina serviram de marco para que o Conselho de Direitos Humanos se envolvesse plenamente no debate sobre questões financeiras que até então eram quase monopolizadas pelo Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI). Este artigo analisa o diagnóstico e as soluções propostas para o problema desses fundos pelo referido Conselho entre 2014-2015, a fim de mostrar empiricamente as potencialidades e dificuldades da perspectiva dos direitos humanos para penetrar no campo financeiro. Para isso, o trabalho dá conta das condições que possibilitaram a atuação desse Conselho no caso específico e, ao mesmo tempo, da reação que tal atuação despertou por parte dos agentes dominantes desse campo. Argumenta-se que a efetividade do “poder de veto” desses agentes dominantes a iniciativas alternativas à atual ordem financeira, como a analisada, repousa em boa medida no alto grau de concentração material do mercado de dívida soberana em que esses fundos atuam. endividados crise FMI. FMI . (FMI) 20142015, 20142015 2014 2015, 2015 2014-2015 financeiro isso tempo Argumentase Argumenta poder veto financeira analisada atuam (FMI 2014201 201 2014-201 201420 20 2014-20 20142 2 2014-2 2014-

Abstract Vulture funds attack indebted States, when their most vulnerable populations suffer in first-hand the effects of the crisis. The actions of such funds against Argentina, served as the context for the Human Rights Council (HR) fully involving in key financial debates; debates that until then were quasi-monopolized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The article analyzes the Council diagnosis and its solutions proposed to the vulture funds problem in the 2014-2015 period, in order to empirically show the potentialities and difficulties of the Human Rights approach for penetrating in the financial field. For these purposes, the paper exhibits the conditions that made possible the actions of the Council in the specific case and, in turn, the reactions that such actions aroused by part of the dominant agents of the financial field. It is argued that the effectiveness of the “veto power” of these dominant agents to the Human Rights alternative initiatives largely rests on the high degree of concentration of the sovereign debt market in which these funds operate. States firsthand first hand crisis Argentina HR (HR quasimonopolized quasi monopolized IMF. IMF . (IMF) 20142015 2014 2015 2014-201 period field purposes turn veto power operate (IMF 2014201 201 2014-20 201420 20 2014-2 20142 2 2014-

Resumen Los fondos buitre atacan los Estados endeudados cuando sus poblaciones más vulnerables sufren en carne propia los efectos de la crisis. Su accionar contra Argentina, sirvió de marco para que el Consejo de Derechos Humanos (DD. HH.) se involucre de lleno en el debate de cuestiones financieras hasta entonces cuasi-monopolizadas por el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI). Este artículo analiza el diagnóstico y las soluciones propuestas a la problemática de estos fondos por parte de dicho Consejo entre 2014-2015 con el objeto de mostrar empíricamente las potencialidades y dificultades del enfoque de DD. HH. para penetrar en el campo financiero. A estos efectos, el trabajo da cuenta de las condiciones que posibilitaron la actuación de este órgano en el caso concreto y, a su vez, de la reacción que suscitó tal actuación por parte de los agentes dominantes de este campo. Se argumenta que la efectividad del “poder de veto” de estos agentes a iniciativas alternativas al orden financiero vigente, como la analizada, descansa, en buena medida, en el alto grado de concentración material del mercado de deuda soberana en el que estos fondos se desenvuelven. crisis Argentina DD (DD HH cuasimonopolizadas cuasi monopolizadas FMI. FMI . (FMI) 20142015 2014 2015 2014-201 vez poder veto vigente analizada descansa medida desenvuelven (FMI 2014201 201 2014-20 201420 20 2014-2 20142 2 2014-

RESUMEN Este estudio investiga la estructura de vencimientos de la deuda de 275 empresas brasileñas no financieras que cotizan en bolsa desde 2010 hasta 2019. Los hallazgos revelan que estas empresas no distribuyen los vencimientos de sus deudas al renovarlas, a diferencia de lo observado por Choi et al. (2018) en empresas estadounidenses. Incluso después del shock de refinanciación tras la pérdida de la calificación de inversión de la deuda soberana brasileña en 2015, estas empresas no aumentaron la distribución de vencimientos de su deuda. Al utilizar la pérdida de la calificación de inversión de Brasil como un "experimento cuasi natural" en el modelo de shock exógeno, los autores evalúan la gestión de la deuda corporativa. Los resultados indican que las empresas brasileñas pueden enfrentar considerables riesgos de refinanciación de deuda debido a la concentración de vencimientos en rangos de madurez específicos durante futuros shocks de crédito. El control adecuado de las estructuras de financiamiento es crucial para asegurar que las empresas sigan siendo resilientes y no tengan que rechazar inversiones rentables o activos de alta calidad durante las crisis financieras. Esta investigación tiene implicaciones significativas para la práctica corporativa y los riesgos asociados a la financiación de proyectos rentables, especialmente en países con mercados de capital menos eficientes 27 201 2019 renovarlas 2018 (2018 estadounidenses 2015 experimento natural exógeno crédito 2 20 (201 (20 (2 (

ABSTRACT This study investigates the maturity structure of listed non-financial Brazilian companies from 2010 to 2019 and reveals that these companies do not spread their debt maturities upon renewal, unlike the results observed by Choi et al. (2018) for US firms. Even after the rollover shock in 2015 where the Brazilian sovereign debt’s investment were downgraded, these firms did not increase the maturity spread of their debt. In addition, the research evaluated corporate debt management by utilizing Brazil’s downgrade as a “quasi-natural experiment” in the exogenous shock model. The results indicate that Brazilian companies may face considerable debt rollover risks due to the concentration of maturities in specific maturity ranges during future credit shocks. Proper control of financing structures is crucial to ensure that companies remain resilient and do not have to turn down profitable investments or high-quality assets during financial crises. This research has significant implications for corporate practice and the associated risks of financing profitable projects, particularly in countries with less efficient capital markets. nonfinancial non 201 renewal al 2018 (2018 debts s downgraded addition Brazils Brazil quasinatural quasi natural experiment model shocks highquality high quality crises projects markets 20 (201 2 (20 (2 (

RESUMO Este estudo investiga a estrutura de vencimento da dívida de 275 empresas abertas não financeiras brasileiras de 2010 a 2019. Os resultados mostram que essas empresas não dispersam seus vencimentos de dívida na renovação, ao contrário do observado por Choi et al. (2018) para empresas dos Estados Unidos. Mesmo após o choque de rolagem da dívida depois da perda do grau de investimento da dívida soberana brasileira em 2015, essas empresas não aumentaram a dispersão de vencimentos. Ao utilizar a perda do grau de investimento do Brasil como um "experimento quase-natural" no modelo de choque de crédito, o presente estudo avalia a gestão da dívida corporativa. Os resultados indicam que as empresas brasileiras podem enfrentar consideráveis riscos de rolagem da dívida devido à concentração de vencimentos em faixas específicas durante futuros choques de crédito. O controle adequado das estruturas de financiamento é crucial para garantir que as empresas permaneçam resilientes e não precisem recusar investimentos lucrativos ou ativos de alta qualidade durante crises financeiras. Esta pesquisa tem implicações significativas para a prática corporativa e os riscos associados ao financiamento de projetos lucrativos, particularmente em países com mercados de capitais menos eficientes. 27 201 2019 renovação al 2018 (2018 Unidos 2015 experimento quasenatural quase natural quase-natural crédito eficientes 2 20 (201 (20 (2 (

To contribute to economic growth and development, a stock market, as an important economic indicator, should reflect the macroeconomic fundamentals of a country. How political and economic developments are reflected in the returns of companies listed on a stock market indicates the risk profile of specific companies and the stock exchange. The objective of this article is to provide a historical perspective on how political and economic developments were reflected in the returns of the Johannesburg stock exchange (the JSE Ltd.) in the period 2000-2010. The history of the JSE for this period can be divided into three stages: the stage before the global financial crisis (GFC), the GFC stage, and the post-GFC stage. During the pre-GFC stage, the JSE recovered from the Asian crisis of 1998, and the global boom in information and technology stocks led to a surge in technology stocks and indices on the JSE. When the dotcom bubble burst in March 2000, a sharp decline in share prices on the JSE followed. The aftermath of the 11 September 2001 attack in the United States led to a temporary decline in JSE stock prices, but they had recovered - in international markets as well - by May 2002. The JSE responded to local political events, such as the introduction of black economic empowerment legislation and the National Credit Act, and to international political events, such as the formation of the Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) economic block. The commodity super cycle (2003-2008), low domestic interest rates and higher economic growth rates than in 2002 contributed to the continuous bull run in share prices on the JSE during this stage (2003-2008). The global financial crisis, regarded as the worst crisis since the Great Depression of 1929, had a severe impact on all economies globally and resulted in a worldwide recession. In South Africa, the effect of falling commodity prices had macroeconomic consequences in terms of employment levels, commodity exports, foreign fixed investment and the exchange rate. The risk premium for South Africa also increased, resulting in an outflow of foreign investor funds, a drop in the JSE stock market index, and a depreciating currency. The FTSE/ JSE All Share Index fell by 46% from an all-time high in May 2008 to a low in November 2008, before recovering by 39% in August 2009. Recovery in South African financial markets occurred relatively quickly, though, with the All Share Index rebounding by 30% during 2009. The resilience of the South African financial sector meant that South Africa largely escaped the most damaging effects of the global financial crisis. The global recession in 2009 and uncertainty regarding recovery in the global market resulted in the implementation of strong stimulating monetary and fiscal policy measures globally. Large fiscal deficits led to an escalation of government debts, while low interest rates and quantitative easing in developed countries resulted in a substantial inflow of funds to the South African share market in 2009 and the bond market in 2010. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index improved by 63% in 2009 and 2010, tracking international equity markets and higher commodity prices. Non-resident investors returned, particularly from 2009 onwards, as sentiment improved and risk appetite recovered. The momentum on the stock market was interrupted by the European debt crisis. The European sovereign debt crisis, which started in Greece in 2010 and spilled over to other European countries, prompted the European Union and the International Monetary Fund to establish an emergency facility. Despite the nervousness resulting from the European crisis, share prices on the JSE trended higher, tracking global equity markets and commodity prices. The current study concludes that the JSE reflected macroeconomic conditions, political changes and global events during the period 2000-2010. The JSE responded positively to higher commodity prices and improved economic and political prospects, but also reflected its growing vulnerability to contagious international events andfinancial crises, such as the dotcom bubble and the global financial crisis.

Om tot ekonomiese groei en ontwikkeling by te dra, moet 'n aandelemark, as 'n toonaange-wende ekonomiese aanwyser, die makroekonomiese grondbeginsels van 'n land weerspieel. Die weerspieeling van politieke en ekonomiese ontwikkelings in opbrengste van genoteerde maatskappye dui op die risikoprofiel van maatskappye en die aandelebeurs. Die doel van hierdie artikel is om 'n historiese perspektief te verskaf oor die wyse waarop politieke en ekonomiese ontwikkelings gedurende die tydperk 2000-2010 in die opbrengste van die Johannesburgse aandelebeurs (die JSE Bpk.) weerspieël word. Die geskiedenis van die JSE gedurende hierdie tydperk kan in drie fases verdeel word: die fase voor die globale finansiële krisis (GFK), die GFK-fase, en die post-GFK-fase. In die studie is tot die gevolgtrekking gekom dat die JSE makroëkonomiese toestande, politieke veranderinge en wêreldgebeure gedurende die tydperk 2000-2010 weerspieël het. Die JSE het positief gereageer op hoër kommoditeitspryse en op 'n verbetering in ekonomiese en politieke vooruitsigte, maar het ook sy toenemende kwesbaarheid getoon vir aansteeklike internasionale gebeure en finansiële krisisse, soos die GFK en toe die dotcom-borrel gebars het.

Resumo Nós acrescentamos à discussão sobre a transmissão dos ciclos de negócios, modelando a sincronização dos ciclos dos índices do setor bancário mundial, levando em consideração o comportamento variante no tempo e frequência específica das variáveis. Com base na coerência múltipla, coerência parcial, diferença de fase parcial e ganho parcial, encontramos regiões de coerência forte e significativa entre os parceiros do NAFTA e no núcleo europeu: França, Alemanha e Reino Unido. Em relação a esses blocos comerciais, também encontramos forte desempenho no período 2010-2012 em todas as frequências, período caracterizado pela crise da dívida soberana em alguns países europeu.

Abstract We add to the discussion on the transmission of business cycles, by modeling worldwide banking sector indices cycle synchronization, accounting for the time-varying and frequency-specific behavior of the variables. Based on the multiple coherence, partial coherence, partial phase-difference, and partial gain, we find regions of strong and significant coherency between NAFTA partners, and in the European core: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Concerning such trade blocs, we also find strong performance in the period 2010-2012 in all frequencies, a period characterized by the sovereign debt crisis in some European countries.

Résumé : Au cours de la période 2004-2019, les plus grands pays de l’Union européenne ont traversé deux phases de grandes difficultés qui ont défavorisé électoralement les partis majoritaires. En premier lieu, la crise de la dette souveraine et de l’euro de 2009-2012, et l’application qui en découla, de politiques d’austérité sévères. En deuxième lieu, les effets politiques de la crise des réfugiés et des migrants en 2015-2016. Ces problèmes supranationaux ont obligé la Commission européenne à convenir de mesures qui, en principe, devraient être appliquées par les gouvernements nationaux. Cela a provoqué des conflits internes, qui ont joué, lors des élections, contre les dirigeants nationaux et leurs partis, ce qui a dégagé un espace électoral important occupé par d’autres partis. Par conséquent, le format de leurs systèmes de partis a été modifié.

Abstract: Over the 2004-2019 period, the largest countries in the European Union experienced two phases of major electoral difficulties that proved unfavorable to the majority parties. Firstly, the sovereign debt crisis and the euro crisis of 2009-2012, and the subsequent application of severe austerity policies. Secondly, the political ramifications of the refugee and migrant crisis in 2015-2016. These problems of supranational scope required the European Commission to agree on measures that, in principle, should be applied by national governments. This caused internal conflicts, which let to reverses in the elections at the cost of the national rulers and their parties, clearing a significant electoral space that was occupied by other parties and resulting in changes to the makeup of their party systems.

Resumen: En el periodo 2004-2019, los mayores países de la Unión Europea atravesaron dos fases de grandes dificultades que electoralmente desfavorecieron a los partidos mayoritarios. En primer lugar, la crisis de la deuda soberana y del euro, de 2009-2012, y la consecuente aplicación de severas políticas de austeridad. En segundo lugar, los efectos políticos de la crisis de refugiados y migrantes en 2015-2016. Estos problemas de alcance supranacional requirieron que la Comisión Europea acordara medidas que, en principio, debían ser aplicadas por los gobiernos nacionales. Ello ocasionó conflictos internos, los cuales se revirtieron en las elecciones en contra de los gobernantes nacionales y sus partidos, lo que despejó un significativo espacio electoral que fue ocupado por otros partidos. En consecuencia, el formato de sus sistemas de partidos se alteró.

Abstract Purpose: This study examines the effect of the informational content of local credit rating announcements in emerging markets on the liquidity of their bond markets. This study analyses the liquidity of bonds in various emerging bond markets using a sample of nine countries: Argentina, Mexico, Peru, Hungary, Poland, Spain, Turkey, Hong Kong and Greece. The sample includes daily data on sovereign bonds that go from July 2009 to July 2017. The main focus is on the period before and after the sovereign debt crisis. This study notes that the bond liquidity is affected due to the sign of the rating granted by the rating agencies for each country. Design/methodology/approach: This study aims to question the sources of liquidity problem of sovereign bonds issued by the emerging countries. The study’s database consists of daily data of all nine emerging countries for the period from July 2009 to July 2017. Panel data were collected from the Datastream database. Findings: This study first directly tests the information content of bond ratings announcements and their effect on bond market liquidity. Next, the impact of rating changes on sovereign bond liquidity around the rating announcements is studied. Rating changes can affect sovereign bond's price, trading and liquidity around the announcement date. In particular the rating changes that move the bonds out of the investment grade category can elicit selling pressure or even fire sale of the fallen angels. Originality/value: This research aims to present data on the prices of sovereign bonds that react to changes in credit rating by studying the price movements around the announcement of changes in credit rating. The literature is very rich in studies on credit rating changes on stocks and corporate bonds, but this study is perhaps the first attempt on sovereign bonds.

BACKGROUND: South Africa's fiscal position has deteriorated considerably over the last 10 years, with debt levels reaching historical highs in the post-apartheid period. National Treasury's intentions for fiscal consolidation have again drawn attention to the fiscal multiplier literature AIM: The aim in the study is to calculate the size of fiscal expenditure multipliers over the period 2009 to 2019, taking into account the specific economic conditions and the funding choices of government SETTING: In the study fiscal policy is considered at a time when the debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio was rising rapidly METHODS: We use an econometric model to calculate the fiscal multipliers over the past decade. Our estimates take account of the specific fiscal conditions for each year, in particular the changing relationship between debt and the sovereign risk premia as well as the impact of tax increases RESULTS: The model suggests that the fiscal multiplier declined from 1.5 in 2010 to around zero in 2019 as the debt levels became progressively more unsustainable and large tax increases muted the aggregate demand effects from higher government expenditure CONCLUSION: The low fiscal multipliers suggest that fiscal consolidation will be less costly in terms of growth forgone than generally perceived JEL CLASSIFICATION: C50, E62, H62, H63

Recurring debt crises and innovations in the sovereign debt landscape over the past couple of decades have rekindled interest in the nature and forms of sovereign debt. There are multiple outlets for contracting loans, all with different policies, principles and procedures. For instance, resource-backed loans have provided an additional option for resource-rich countries in Africa and Latin America to support their quest for infrastructural development. However, these and other innovations in sovereign financing may affect the dominant understanding and dynamics of sovereign debt governance. The silence of the literature on the place of development in the conceptualisation of sovereign debt is striking. Therefore, using doctrinal methodology, this article proposes a reconceptualization of sovereign debt to reflect these innovations, gaps, and emerging trends. It is argued that sovereign financing needs a theoretical underpinning linked to the objective of development. This article proposes a distinction between development-driven and non-development-driven sovereign debt. It is argued that a development-based conception of sovereign debt would make the recurring legitimacy issues surrounding the character of the sovereign relevant and more reflective of contemporary changes in the practice of sovereign financing.