Resumo Este artigo apresenta uma metodologia empírica para analisar a propagação de choques agregados entre regiões. Embora focando especificamente no caso do Brasil e do Ceará, a metodologia proposta pode ser facilmente adaptada para examinar outras regiões também. Desenvolvemos um modelo dinâmico, chamado SAMBA+REG, que complementa o modelo DSGE do Banco Central do Brasil (SAMBA) ao incorporar elementos regionais. Esse arcabouço teórico nos permite explorar como choques agregados impactam uma região específica. Realizamos simulações de choques fiscais e monetários, e os resultados estão alinhados com a literatura existente. O SAMBA+REG não apenas facilita a avaliação dos efeitos das políticas econômicas do governo central em uma economia regional, mas também oferece insights sobre várias estratégias para os governos estaduais responderem de forma eficaz a essas políticas. Ceará dinâmico SAMBAREG SAMBA REG (SAMBA regionais específica monetários existente regional

Abstract This article presents an empirical methodology for analyzing the propagation of aggregate shocks across regions. While focusing on the specific case of Brazil and Ceará, the proposed methodology can be easily adapted to examine other regions as well. We develop a dynamic model, termed SAMBA+REG, which complements the Central Bank of Brazil’s dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (SAMBA) by incorporating regional elements. This theoretical framework allows us to explore how aggregate shocks impact a specific region. We conduct simulations using fiscal and monetary shocks and the results align with the existing literature. SAMBA+REG not only facilitates the evaluation of the effects of central government economic policies on a regional economy, but also offers insights into various strategies for state governments to respond effectively to these policies. Ceará well SAMBAREG SAMBA REG Brazils s (SAMBA elements region literature economy

RESUMEN El producto, la productividad factorial, el empleo de la fuerza de trabajo, además de la formación bruta de capital de la economía mexicana han mostrado lentos ritmos de crecimiento durante las últimas décadas. Mientras, las políticas económicas han procurado mantener el equilibrio fiscal, relegando el crecimiento y, más aún, el desarrollo. La inversión pública no ha sido protagonista en la dinámica económica y la inversión privada no ha procurado serlo. Por lo tanto, como lo demuestran diversos estudios, el sector productivo mantiene en buena medida las características adquiridas durante la etapa de industrialización y no ha habido factores que corrijan sus mayores fallas estructurales. Ello a pesar del rápido crecimiento de las exportaciones manufactureras y la integración con la economía de Estados Unidos, metas que ha querido alcanzar la estrategia postindustrial de largo plazo. Este trabajo explora el comportamiento de la formación bruta de capital en un horizonte largo, desde una perspectiva multisectorial enfatizando el análisis del sector manufacturero, puesto que el veloz crecimiento de sus exportaciones es el elemento que caracteriza a la evolución económica de las últimas décadas.

ABSTRACT Mexico’s output, factorial productivity, employment and gross capital formation have grown slowly during the last few decades. Economic policies have emphasized keeping the fiscal balance, leaving aside growth and -even more- development. Public investment has not determined the system’s dynamics: Private investment has been sluggish. As many papers show, the productive sector maintains many features that correspond to the industrialisation period, while there are no factors to solve its main structural failures. All that after a long period of fast growth of manufacturing exports and the efforts to integrate the economy with that of the US. Such have been the goals of the long-term strategy. This paper explores the behaviour of gross capital formation over a long-time horizon from a multisectoral perspective, emphasising the study of the manufacturing industry since the expanding manufacturing exports characterise the economic evolution in the last few decades.

Resumen El trabajo muestra que los procesos de liberalización y la expansión del sector financiero han cambiado profundamente la vida económica, social y política de la economía mundial. Han surgido fenómenos nuevos, por ejemplo, la supremacía de las autoridades monetarias sobre las fiscales y la transformación de los gobiernos nacionales en acreedores de los bancos centrales. Estos cambios han generado consecuencias negativas, como la inestabilidad financiera, el aumento del número de crisis, el bajo crecimiento y la desigualdad distributiva. El artículo aclara la necesidad de modificar aspectos relevantes de la política económica. Se argumenta que atribuir a las autoridades monetarias el papel de líderes en la coordinación de las políticas económicas perjudica el crecimiento y la equidad distributiva. Se alega que debe devolverse discrecionalidad a la política fiscal y que la intervención pública tiene que guiar la evolución de la estructura productiva. A fin de cumplir lo primero, deben mejorarse la calidad de las políticas públicas y los niveles de confianza entre las diferentes instituciones de la política económica nacional y entre los operadores de los mercados financieros y las autoridades de gobierno.

Abstract The paper shows that the liberalization processes and the expansion of the financial sector have changed profoundly the economic, social, and political life of the world economy. New phenomena have arisen, such as the supremacy of the monetary authorities over the fiscal ones and the transformation of national governments into creditors of the central banks. These changes have generated negative consequences, like financial instability, an increase in the number of crises, low growth, and distributive inequality. The article clarifies the need to modify relevant aspects of economic policy. It argues that attributing the role of leaders to the monetary authorities in the coordination of economic policies harms growth and distributive equity. The work claims that discretion should be returned to fiscal policy and that public intervention should guide the evolution of the productive structure. To restore discretion to fiscal policy, the quality of public policies and the levels of trust between the different institutions of national economic policy and between financial market operators and government authorities must be improved.

Abstract The great social, political and economic changes that make up the current situation of the current Brazilian historical period show the rupture with the democratic order established since the Federal Constitution of 1988. In this sense, the characteristics developed in this essay allow to indicate the possible rupture of the Democratic State model, opening up for the advancement of the Post-Democratic State. In this scenario, the present work presents Constitutional Amendment nº 95/2016 as the necessary legal legitimation for the establishment of the Post-Democratic order in Brazil, having set new paradigms for budget management and fiscal policy, especially with repercussions in the field of social rights and public policies, notably in their essential nucleus, which are rights to education and health. From this statement, considerations were made in the search to answer the problematic proposal: what are the main characteristics that allow us to affirm that Constitutional Amendment No. 95/2016 constituted a kind of “legal legitimation” to the advancement of the Post-Democratic State in Brazil? The result previously found is that Constitutional Amendment nº 95/2016 is configured as the legal legitimation for the advancement of the Post-Democratic State, preventing the increase in the field of public policies and the consequent promotion of social control, essential factors for the construction of an emancipatory policy for the exercise of citizenship, designed by the Federal Constitution of 1988. The method of approach is deductive, an analytical procedure, using the technique of direct documentation through bibliographic research.

Resumo As grandes mutações sociais, políticas e econômicas que perfazem a conjuntura da atual quadra histórica brasileira evidenciam a ruptura com a ordem democrática instaurada a partir da Constituição Federal de 1988. É neste sentido que as características desenvolvidas neste ensaio permitem indicar a possível ruptura do modelo Democrático de Estado, dando-se abertura para o avanço do Estado Pós-Democrático. Neste cenário, o presente trabalho apresenta a Emenda Constitucional nº 95/2016 como a legitimação jurídica necessária para a instauração da ordem Pós-Democrática no Brasil, tendo fixado novos paradigmas para a gestão orçamentária e a política fiscal, especialmente com reflexos no campo dos direitos sociais e políticas públicas, notadamente em seu núcleo essencial, que são direitos à educação e à saúde. A partir dessa afirmação, teceram-se considerações na busca de responder a problemática proposta: quais as principais características que permitem afirmar que a Emenda Constitucional n° 95/2016 constituiu uma espécie de “legitimação jurídica” ao avanço do Estado Pós-Democrático no Brasil? O resultado previamente encontrado é de que a Emenda Constitucional nº 95/2016 configura-se como a legitimação jurídica ao avanço do Estado Pós-Democrático, inviabilizando o incremento no campo das políticas públicas e o consequente fomento ao controle social, fatores essenciais para a construção de uma política emancipatória para o exercício da cidadania, projetada pela Constituição Federal de 1988. O método de abordagem é dedutivo, procedimento analítico, utilizando-se da técnica de documentação direta através de pesquisa bibliográfica.

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Considering the published evidence on the impact of recent economic crises and the implementation of fiscal austerity policies in Brazil on various health indicators, this study aims to analyze how the trend and socio-spatial inequality of infant mortality behaved in the municipality of São Paulo from 2006 to 2019. METHODS This is an ecological study with a temporal trend analysis that was developed in municipality of São Paulo, using three residence area strata differentiated according to their social vulnerability following the 2010 São Paulo Social Vulnerability Index. Infant mortality rate, as well as neonatal, and post-neonatal mortality rates, were calculated for each social vulnerability stratum, each year in the period, and for the first and last three triennia. Temporal trends were analyzed by the Prais-Winsten regression model and inequality magnitude, by rate ratios. RESULTS We found a decline in infant mortality rate and its components from 2006 to 2015, greater in the stratum with low social vulnerability and in the post-neonatal period when compared to the neonatal one. This decline ended in 2015, stagnating in the next period (2016–2019). Our analysis of infant mortality inequality across social vulnerability stratum showed a significant increase from the initial to the final triennia in the analyzed period; rate ratios increased from 1.36 to 1.48 in the high stratum (compared to the low social vulnerability stratum), and from 1.19 to 1.32 between the medium and low social vulnerability strata. CONCLUSIONS The observed stagnation of infant mortality rate decline in 2015 and the increase in socio-spatial inequality point to the urgent need to reformulate current public policies to reverse this situation and reduce inequalities in the risk of infant death.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Considerando as evidências publicadas sobre o impacto de crises econômicas e da implementação de políticas de austeridade fiscal em vários indicadores de saúde, e a ocorrência recente desses eventos no Brasil, o objetivo deste estudo foi analisar o comportamento da tendência e da desigualdade socioespacial da mortalidade infantil no município de São Paulo, entre 2006 e 2019. MÉTODOS Trata-se de estudo ecológico de análise de tendência temporal, desenvolvido no município de São Paulo e em três estratos de áreas de residência, diferenciadas segundo nível de vulnerabilidade social, a partir do Índice Paulista de Vulnerabilidade Social de 2010. Calcularam-se as taxas de mortalidade infantil, neonatal e pós-neonatal para cada um dos estratos de vulnerabilidade social, para cada ano do período e para o primeiro e o último triênios. A tendência temporal foi analisada com o modelo de regressão de Prais-Winsten e a magnitude da desigualdade avaliada pelas razões de taxas. RESULTADOS O declínio das taxas de mortalidade infantil e de seus componentes, observado entre 2006 e 2015, que foi mais elevado no estrato de baixa vulnerabilidade social e no período pós-neonatal em comparação ao neonatal, foi interrompido em 2015, com estagnação das taxas no período subsequente (2016–2019). A análise da desigualdade da mortalidade infantil entre os estratos de vulnerabilidade social revelou aumento significativo entre os triênios inicial e final do período analisado; as razões de taxas cresceram de 1,36 para 1,48 entre o estrato de alta em relação ao de baixa vulnerabilidade social e de 1,19 para 1,32 entre o de média e de baixa vulnerabilidade social. CONCLUSÕES O estancamento do declínio da taxas de mortalidade infantil em 2015 e o aumento da desigualdade socioespacial observados apontam para a necessidade premente de reformulação das políticas públicas vigentes para reversão desse quadro, visando reduzir a iniquidade presente no risco de morte infantil.

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Considering the published evidence on the impact of recent economic crises and the implementation of fiscal austerity policies in Brazil on various health indicators, this study aims to analyze how the trend and socio-spatial inequality of infant mortality behaved in the municipality of São Paulo from 2006 to 2019. METHODS This is an ecological study with a temporal trend analysis that was developed in municipality of São Paulo, using three residence area strata differentiated according to their social vulnerability following the 2010 São Paulo Social Vulnerability Index. Infant mortality rate, as well as neonatal, and post-neonatal mortality rates, were calculated for each social vulnerability stratum, each year in the period, and for the first and last three triennia. Temporal trends were analyzed by the Prais-Winsten regression model and inequality magnitude, by rate ratios. RESULTS We found a decline in infant mortality rate and its components from 2006 to 2015, greater in the stratum with low social vulnerability and in the post-neonatal period when compared to the neonatal one. This decline ended in 2015, stagnating in the next period (2016–2019). Our analysis of infant mortality inequality across social vulnerability stratum showed a significant increase from the initial to the final triennia in the analyzed period; rate ratios increased from 1.36 to 1.48 in the high stratum (compared to the low social vulnerability stratum), and from 1.19 to 1.32 between the medium and low social vulnerability strata. CONCLUSIONS The observed stagnation of infant mortality rate decline in 2015 and the increase in socio-spatial inequality point to the urgent need to reformulate current public policies to reverse this situation and reduce inequalities in the risk of infant death.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Considerando as evidências publicadas sobre o impacto de crises econômicas e da implementação de políticas de austeridade fiscal em vários indicadores de saúde, e a ocorrência recente desses eventos no Brasil, o objetivo deste estudo foi analisar o comportamento da tendência e da desigualdade socioespacial da mortalidade infantil no município de São Paulo, entre 2006 e 2019. MÉTODOS Trata-se de estudo ecológico de análise de tendência temporal, desenvolvido no município de São Paulo e em três estratos de áreas de residência, diferenciadas segundo nível de vulnerabilidade social, a partir do Índice Paulista de Vulnerabilidade Social de 2010. Calcularam-se as taxas de mortalidade infantil, neonatal e pós-neonatal para cada um dos estratos de vulnerabilidade social, para cada ano do período e para o primeiro e o último triênios. A tendência temporal foi analisada com o modelo de regressão de Prais-Winsten e a magnitude da desigualdade avaliada pelas razões de taxas. RESULTADOS O declínio das taxas de mortalidade infantil e de seus componentes, observado entre 2006 e 2015, que foi mais elevado no estrato de baixa vulnerabilidade social e no período pós-neonatal em comparação ao neonatal, foi interrompido em 2015, com estagnação das taxas no período subsequente (2016–2019). A análise da desigualdade da mortalidade infantil entre os estratos de vulnerabilidade social revelou aumento significativo entre os triênios inicial e final do período analisado; as razões de taxas cresceram de 1,36 para 1,48 entre o estrato de alta em relação ao de baixa vulnerabilidade social e de 1,19 para 1,32 entre o de média e de baixa vulnerabilidade social. CONCLUSÕES O estancamento do declínio da taxas de mortalidade infantil em 2015 e o aumento da desigualdade socioespacial observados apontam para a necessidade premente de reformulação das políticas públicas vigentes para reversão desse quadro, visando reduzir a iniquidade presente no risco de morte infantil.

Resumen La crisis sanitaria ha traído consigo mayores efectos a la economía mundial que la Gran Recesión;1 puesto que la Covid-19 perturba a todos los sectores de la economía mundial y a todas las regiones del orbe, restringe el movimiento y promueve el distanciamiento social. Como consecuencia de ello, se ven afectadas las cadenas de valor global, ocasionando una caída del comercio global de 32% o más para finales de 2020, así como la contracción económica global; de ahí que distintas organizaciones internacionales, con experiencia en el desarrollo de políticas económicas y de medidas fiscales y monetarias, hayan emitido una serie de recomendaciones para los gobiernos nacionales, con el fin de contrarrestar, de manera inmediata, los efectos negativos derivados por la Covid-19. En el presente trabajo se exponen las repercusiones económicas de la crisis sanitaria en el mundo y las recomendaciones y/o directrices de los organismos internacionales para impulsar la pronta recuperación de la economía mundial en todos los ámbitos, las cuales señalan cómo deben ser las medidas fiscales y monetarias frente a la Covid-19. Por último, en el marco de lo que ha sido posible de predecir, la crisis sanitaria trae a colación el fortalecimiento de un nuevo ordenamiento mundial caracterizado por la armonización de políticas fiscales emitidas por las instituciones globales, es decir, un orden jurídico nutrido por normas conocidas como soft law, que es dirigido por organismos globales.

Résumé La crise sanitaire a produit des conséquences plus significatives pour l’économie mondiale que la Grande Récession;2 étant donné que la Covid-19 altère tous les secteurs de l’économie mondiale et toutes les régions de l’orbe, ainsi qu’elle restreint le mouvement et favorise la distanciation sociale, les chaînes de valeur mondiale sont affectées, provoquant la chute du commerce international jusqu’à 32% ou plus d’ici à la fin de l’année 2020, ainsi que la contraction économique mondiale. Par conséquent, plusieurs organisations internationaux, expérimentées dans le développement de la politique économique et les mesures fiscales et monétaires, ont émis une série de recommandations pour les gouvernements nationaux, afin de combattre immédiatement les effets négatifs liés à la Covid-19. Enfin, dans ce document, on montre les répercussions économiques de la crise sanitaire dans le monde et les recommandations et/ou lignes directrices des organisations internationaux pour stimuler rapidement la restauration de l’économie mondiale, lesquelles indiquent comment les mesures fiscales et monétaires doivent être face à la Covid-19. Dans le cadre de ce qui a été possible de prévoir, la crise sanitaire amène le renforcement d’un nouvel ordre mondial caractérisé par l’harmonisation des politiques fiscales émises par les institutions globales. Notamment, un ordre juridique nourri par les normes appelées soft law, et dirigées par des organisations mondiales.

Abstract The sanitary crisis has brought greater effect to the world economy than the Great Recession; Covid-19 disrupts all sectors of the world economy and all regions of the orb, restricts movement and promotes social distancing. As a result, global value chains are affected, causing global trade to fall by up to 32% or more by the end of 2020, and global economic contraction. This implies that different international organizations with experience in the development of economic policy, fiscal and monetary measurements have expressed a series of recommendations for the national governments in order to resist, in an immediate way, the negative effects derived for Covid-19. In this paper, it is presented the economic impact of the health crisis on the world, and the recommendations and/or guidelines of the international organizations to promote the rapid recovery of the world economy, in all areas, which point to what taxation should look like in relation to Covid-19. Finally, within the framework of what it has been possible to predict, the sanitary crisis brings to collation the strengthening of a new world arranging characterized by the harmonization of fiscal politics expressed by the global institutions. That is, a legal order nurtured by standards known as soft law and led by global organisms.

Abstract The health crisis generated by the accelerated spread on the planet of the SARS-CoV2 virus-the source of the COVID-19 disease-has had an inevitable negative impact on health systems and simultaneously on the dynamics of the global, regional, and national economies. The structural problems of the Mexican economy and the narrowness of the fiscal space did not arise with the pandemic, they were configured during the last three decades with the implementation of the economic model that privileged market-oriented policies and the withdrawal of state intervention in the economy, in search of a supposed efficiency in the allocation of resources and productive factors. This article analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 disease on the economy and public finances of Mexico, within a perspective that raises the previous existence of structural weaknesses in the economy to generate greater dynamism in production, income, productive investment, job creation, and labor productivity. The health and economic crises represent an opportunity to promote a new economic model that transcends the policies of neoliberal roots, through the design and implementation of an economic policy for the transformation and diversification of production, industrial development, innovation, science, and technology. A new economic model that goes beyond the pandemic, for the development of productive and technological capacities in which economic policy is not an end for macroeconomic stability, but a means to achieve the central objective of social welfare of the population.

Resumen La crisis sanitaria generada por la acelerada propagación en el planeta del virus SARS-CoV2 -fuente de la enfermedad covid-19- ha tenido un impacto negativo inevitable en los sistemas de salud y, simultáneamente, en la dinámica de las economías global, regional y nacional. Los problemas estructurales de la economía mexicana y la estrechez del espacio fiscal no surgieron con la pandemia, se fueron configurando durante las últimas tres décadas mediante la implementación del modelo económico que privilegió las políticas orientadas al mercado y el retiro de la intervención del Estado en la economía, en busca de una supuesta eficiencia en la asignación de los recursos y los factores productivos. En este artículo se analiza el impacto de la covid-19 en la economía y la hacienda pública de México, desde una perspectiva que plantea la existencia previa de las debilidades estructurales de la economía, a fin de buscar mayor dinamismo de la producción, el ingreso, la inversión productiva, la generación de empleo y la productividad laboral. También se plantea que las crisis de salud y económica representan una oportunidad para impulsar un nuevo modelo económico que trascienda las políticas económicas de raíz neoliberal, mediante el diseño y la instrumentación de una política para la transformación y la diversificación productivas, el desarrollo industrial, la innovación, la ciencia y la tecnología. Se busca un nuevo modelo económico que vaya más allá de la pandemia para el desarrollo de capacidades productivas y tecnológicas en el que la política económica no sea un fin para la estabilidad macroeconómica, sino un medio para alcanzar el objetivo central de bienestar social de la población.

Resumen La centralidad del sector agropecuario en la generación de divisas en Argentina ha transformado a las políticas públicas sectoriales en una de las claves para la comprensión de la evolución del desempeño económico. Este artículo analiza el recorrido del sector agroexportador bajo las transformaciones recientes en las políticas económicas en el siglo XXI. Para ello se presenta un breve repaso de la historia y transformaciones recientes en el desarrollo agropecuario y se pasa revista de las principales políticas sectoriales llevadas a cabo por los gobiernos bajo examen, para lo cual se investigan aspectos normativos, resultados productivos, efectos fiscales y sobre la balanza de pagos, concentración de la propiedad y la inserción de estas fracciones de clase en el bloque en el poder. JEL: F13; 012; 018; P16.

Abstract The centrality of the agribusiness sector in the generation of currency in Argentina has transformed public policy for the sector into one of the keys to understanding the evolution of economic performance. This article analyzes the trajectory of the agro-export sector considering recent transformations of economic policy in the twenty-first century. Thus, a brief review of recent history and transformation in the development of agribusiness is given, and main sector policies undertaken by the governments under analysis are discussed. In order to do so, research is carried out on normative aspects, production results, fiscal and balance of payment effects, concentration of property and the insertion of these class fractions in the block in power. JEL: F13; Q12; Q18; P16.

ABSTRACT: The present article analyzes the macroeconomic risks identified in the annual consultations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued between 2017 and 2019 on Mexico, which indicated weakness in the national economy to face external shocks. Three documents from the IMF are compared to detect changes during a key period in the country, due to the political and economic alternation of 2018. The risks presented in 2019 by the IMF are then validated with the official reports of the Mexican economic authorities (Banxico, SHCP) and with similar documents from other international organizations (OCDE, World Bank and BBVA), looking for similarities and differences between them. The main findings indicate the existence of signs of Mexican economic weakness, as well as the existence of convergences (low growth, low levels of investment and consumption, and uncertainty about the new fiscal policies) and some divergences (the approach of each organization). Finally, due to the global health and economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, recent reports agree that there is an environment of intrinsic uncertainty present in any economic crisis, as they do not know the start, end and magnitude of the impact that the event will have on the Mexican economy.

RESUMEN: El presente artículo analiza los riesgos macroeconómicos identificados en las consultas anuales del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) emitidas entre 2017 y 2019 sobre México, las cuales indicaban debilidad en la economía nacional para hacer frente a perturbaciones externas. Se comparan tres documentos del FMI para detectar los cambios durante un periodo importante, debido a la alternancia política y económica de 2018. Después se validan los riesgos presentados en 2019 por el FMI con los reportes oficiales de las autoridades económicas mexicanas (Banxico, SHCP) y con documentos similares de organizaciones internacionales (OCDE, Banco Mundial y BBVA) buscando similitudes y diferencias entre ellos. Los hallazgos principales indican la existencia de señales sobre la debilidad económica mexicana, así como la existencia de convergencias (bajos niveles de crecimiento, inversión y de consumo e incertidumbre por las nuevas políticas fiscales) y divergencias (el enfoque de cada organización). Finalmente, debido a la crisis sanitaria y económica mundial por la pandemia COVID-19, reportes recientes coinciden que existe un entorno de incertidumbre intrínseca presente en cualquier crisis económica al no saber el inicio, fin y magnitud del impacto que el evento tendrá sobre la economía mexicana.

Abstract In this paper the impact of remittances on a recipient economy’s supply and demand sides is analyzed considering a static model with flexible prices. It is shown that remittances affect both the effectiveness of economic policies and their multipliers. This effect is also shown to depend on the degree of Central Bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. This allows us to define different macroeconomic scenarios, each with different economic policy implications.

Resumen En este trabajo analizamos cómo impactan las remesas en la economía de un país receptor por el lado de la oferta y el de la demanda, insertándolas en un modelo estático neokeynesiano con precios flexibles. Demostramos que las remesas también repercuten en la efectividad de las políticas económicas y de sus multiplicadores dependiendo del grado de intervención del Banco Central en el mercado de divisas. Eso nos permite definir distintos escenarios macroeconómicos, cada uno con sus propias implicaciones de política económica.

Abstract Introduction: The crisis considered as the "Great Confinement" caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 disease has had a multidimensional impact on humanity, on a health, social, economic, and political level. One of the main effects has been reflected in an economic crisis unparalleled in human history. In the economic history of the human being, each crisis of a wide magnitude has demonstrated a relationship between sociodemographic and economic factors and the growth of the informal economy, such as the level of earnings, scholarship, search of an extra job sex and levels of inequality and poverty. Method: Database was obtained from harmonized surveys made available by INEGI and SHCP, from where both quantitative and categorical data were identified that correspond to the structuralist and institutionalist dimension of informality. Based on that, we applied a Logit model to determine the probability of a person to belong to the informal sector of the economy, and a Probit model to identify reiterated variables of the model as well. Results: Statistically representative variables to determine the probability to belong to the informal sector, with a global percentage of 72.5 %, are the years of school, age, economic inequality, percentage of poverty in each state, the degree of spending in fiscal obligations, the level of fiscal compensations due to belonging to RIF, the type of occupation, sex and the level of minimal wages earned. Discussion or Conclusion: Considering the findings of the research, it is possible to infer that the people with higher risk of falling in the informality and continuing in it, show a characteristic profile that can be considered as a valid base to design effective public policies to reduce informality. The present research contributes trough the identification of a model that describes the profile of an individual with a higher probability of integrate to the informal sector of the economy, considering both sociodemographic and market structure factors, considering the effect of the pandemics in the current economic conditions.

Resumen Introducción: La crisis denominada como el “Gran confinamiento” causada por el brote de la enfermedad COVID-19 ha tenido un impacto multidimensional en la humanidad, a nivel sanitario, social, económico y político. Uno de los principales efectos se ha visto reflejado en una crisis económica sin paralelo en la historia de la humanidad. En la historia económica del ser humano, cada crisis de amplia magnitud ha mostrado una relación entre factores sociodemográficos y económicos con el crecimiento de la economía informal, tales como el nivel de ingreso, la escolaridad, la búsqueda de otro empleo, el sexo, y los niveles de desigualdad y de pobreza. Método: La base de datos se obtuvo de diversas encuestas armonizadas de INEGI y SHCP; en ellas, se identificaron datos de naturaleza cuantitativa y categórica, que corresponden a las dimensiones estructuralista e institucionalista de la informalidad. Con base en ello, se aplicó un modelo Logit para determinar la probabilidad de que una persona pertenezca al sector informal de la economía, así como un modelo Probit para identificar variables reiteradas del modelo. Resultados: Las variables que son estadísticamente significativas para determinar la probabilidad de pertenencia al sector informal de la economía, con un porcentaje global equivalente al 72.5 %, son: años de escolaridad, edad, desigualdad económica, porcentaje de pobreza por entidad federativa, grado de gasto por obligaciones fiscales, nivel de compensación fiscal por la pertenencia al RIF, tipo de ocupación, sexo y nivel de salarios mínimos percibidos. Discusión o Conclusión: Considerando los hallazgos de la investigación, es posible inferir que aquellas personas con mayor riesgo de caer en la informalidad, y de continuar en ella, muestran un perfil característico que puede considerarse como una base válida para el diseño de políticas públicas efectivas para reducir la informalidad. La presente investigación contribuye al campo, mediante la identificación de un modelo que describe el perfil de una persona con mayor probabilidad de integrarse al sector informal de la economía, considerando tanto las características sociodemográficas del individuo como la estructura del mercado, tomando en cuenta el efecto de la pandemia en las condiciones económicas actuales.

RESUMO A pandemia do Covid-19 está produzindo uma depressão econômica que poderia ser substancialmente reduzida se o Estado em cada país, além de fazer os gastos necessários na saúde, compensasse as empresas e famílias que estão perdendo com as políticas de distanciamento social e confinamento. Os governos, no entanto, limitam seus gastos para não aumentar a dívida pública. Mas existe a possibilidade de os bancos centrais comprarem novos títulos dos tesouros dos próprios países para financiar tais gastos. Considerando as várias restrições econômicas enfrentadas pelos formuladores de políticas, essa política não entrará em conflito com a restrição de inflação. O dinheiro é uma variável endógena que não causa, mas apenas sanciona a inflação em curso. O financiamento monetário entra parcialmente em conflito com a restrição fiscal, mas evita o aumento da dívida pública. E não traz as más consequências da indisciplina fiscal - demanda excessiva que, sucessivamente, causa aumento das importações e déficits em conta-corrente que apreciam a moeda nacional, aceleração ou inflação e crises de balanço de pagamentos. O financiamento monetário do Covid-19 não causará nenhum desses três males.

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic is producing an economic depression that could be substantially reduced if the state in each country, besides making the required health spending, compensates the companies and households that are losing with the social distance and lockdown policies. Governments limit their expenditures to not increase the public debt. There is, however, the possibility of the central banks buying new securities from the respective treasury to finance such exceptional expending. Considering the several economic constraints that policymakers face, this policy will not conflict with the inflation constraint. Money is an endogenous variable that does not cause, but just validates a going inflation. It conflicts partially with the fiscal constraint but avoids the increase of the public debt. And in this case there are no bad consequences of fiscal indiscipline - excess demand that, successively, causes increase in imports and current account deficits that, successively, appreciate the national currency, accelerate inflation, and lead to currency crises. Monetary financing of the COVID-19 will not cause any of these three evils.

RESUMEN. Este artículo analiza, desde la teoría de la regulación francesa, los modelos de tributación en Latinoamérica y su incidencia en los modos de acumulación y la desigualdad. Para ello se estudian las estructuras tributarias de Argentina, Colombia y México. Luego se analizan tanto las formas institucionales como también los modos de regulación y su relación con los regímenes de acumulación. De allí se muestra que los Estados, dada su adhesión a un régimen internacional, no son los únicos actores en el diseño de sus políticas tributarias. Dado el interés en las transformaciones económicas globales y sus consecuentes modelos reguladores en el último siglo, este artículo aporta un marco de análisis para comprender la forma en que se establecen los modelos de tributación en Latinoamérica, sus razones y sus problemas.

ABSTRACT. This article analyzes the Latin American taxation models, from the perspective of French regulation theory, and their impact on modes of accumulation and inequality. To this end, it studies the tax structures of Argentina, Colombia, and Mexico. It then analyzes both the institutional forms and modes of regulation and their relationship with accumulation regimes. It concludes that the States are not the only actors involved in the design of their tax policies, given their adherence to an international regime. Based on the interest in global economic transformations and their consequent regulatory models in the last century, this article provides a framework of analysis to understand how taxation models are established in Latin America, their motives, and problems.

Abstract Although legal autonomy remains a pending issue in the political system of the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina, economic aspects can also strongly condition it. In this work we will address the economic limitations to the autonomy of the municipalities through the increasing quantity of funds that the Province gives with specific assignation in theirs Budgets. We will identify the complex network of provincial norms that limit their economic competences and, consequently, decision-making capabilities. Either because they force or condition the direction of the funds, these types of regulations affect the powers, local public policies and capacities of municipal authorities. We conclude that the distribution criteria show great differences and strongly affect small municipalities with low collection capacity.

Resumen Aun cuando la autonomía jurídica sigue siendo una asignatura pendiente en el sistema político de la Provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina, los aspectos económicos también pueden condicionarla fuertemente. En este trabajo abordaremos las limitaciones económicas a la autonomía de los municipios a través de la creciente transferencia de fondos por parte de la Provincia con asignación específica. Identificaremos el complejo entramado de normas provinciales que limitan sus competencias económicas y consecuentemente, capacidades de decisión. Ya sea porque obligan o condicionan el direccionamiento de los fondos, este tipo de normas afectan las competencias, las políticas públicas locales y capacidades de las autoridades municipales. Concluimos que los criterios de reparto evidencian grandes diferencias y afectan fuertemente a los municipios pequeños con baja capacidad recaudatoria.