Abstract Introduction: Biodiversity is being lost at an accelerating rate because of global change. Tools such as species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to improve knowledge about species’ conservation status and help develop management strategies to mitigate biodiversity loss. SDMs are especially important for species with restricted distributions, such as endemic species. Objective: To determine how potential distribution predicted by SDMs for eight threatened bat species differed from the distribution maps reported by the IUCN. Also, to infer the area of distribution and state of endemism of each specie, and to evaluate the importance of the Tumbesian region for their conservation. Methods: Based on presence records across the species’ entire ranges, we used SDMs to assess the conservation status of these eight species in the Tumbesian region of Ecuador and Peru. Results: The areas estimated by SDMs were 35-78 % smaller for four species (Eptesicus innoxius, Lophostoma occidentale, Platalina genovensium and Lonchophylla hesperia) and 26-1 600 % larger for three species (Amorphochilus schnablii, Promops davisoni and Rhogeessa velilla) than those reported by the IUCN. For Tomopeas ravus, the area estimated by the SDM and IUCN was similar but differed in spatial distribution. SDMs coincided with areas of endemism reported by previous authors for E. innoxius, R. velilla, and T. ravus, but were different for A. schnablii, P. genovensium, P. davisoni, and L. hesperia, due in part to projected distributions for these latter species in dry inter-Andean valleys according to the SDMs. Conclusions: The Tumbesian region represents a significant portion (40-96 %) of the predicted distribution of seven of the eight species studied, underscoring the importance of this region for bat conservation. Our results show likely distributions for these species and provide an important basis for identifying research gaps and developing conservation measures for threatened bats in the Tumbes biodiversity hotspot.

Resumen Introducción: La biodiversidad se está perdiendo a un ritmo acelerado como resultado del cambio global. Herramientas como los modelos de distribución de especies (MDEs) han sido ampliamente usados para mejorar el conocimiento sobre el estado de conservación de las especies y ayudar a desarrollar estrategias de gestión para mitigar la pérdida de biodiversidad. Objetivo: Determinar cómo la distribución potencial predicha por los MDEs para ocho especies de murciélagos amenazados difiere de los mapas de distribución reportados por la UICN. También, inferir el área de distribución y estado de endemismo de cada especie, y evaluar la importancia de la región tumbesina para su conservación. Métodos: Basados en registros de presencia del rango global de las especies, usamos MDEs para evaluar el estado de conservación de estas ocho especies en la región tumbesina de Ecuador y Perú. Resultados: Las áreas estimadas por los MDEs eran 35-78 % más pequeñas para cuatro especies (Eptesicus innoxius, Lophostoma occidentale, Platalina genovensium y Lonchophylla hesperia) y 26-1 600 % más grandes para tres especies (Amorphochilus schnablii, Promops davisoni y Rhogeessa velilla) que aquellas reportadas por la UICN. Para Tomopeas ravus, el área estimada por el MDE y la UICN fue similar, pero difirió en la distribución espacial. Los MDEs coincidieron con áreas de endemismo informadas por autores previos para E. innoxius, R. velilla y T. ravus, pero fueron diferentes para A. schnablii, P. genovensium, P. davisoni y L. hesperia, debido en parte a las distribuciones proyectadas para estas últimas especies en valles secos interandinos según los MDEs. Conclusiones: La región tumbesina representa una porción significativa (40-96 %) de la distribución predicha de siete de las ocho especies estudiadas, subrayando la importancia de esta región para la conservación de murciélagos. Nuestros resultados muestran las probables distribuciones para estas especies y proporcionan una base importante para identificar vacíos de investigación y desarrollar medidas de conservación para murciélagos amenazados en el punto caliente de biodiversidad de Tumbes.

Resumen (Introducción) Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco es una especie forestal de gran importancia por sus servicios ecosistémicos y su comercialización. Actualmente, se ha documentado que el cambio climático está afectando las poblaciones del norte del continente; sin embargo, no se ha evaluado cómo afectaría esto a la distribución de la especie en el futuro. (Objetivo) El objetivo de este trabajo fue modelar la idoneidad ambiental y la distribución potencial de P. menziesii en 3 periodos (2040, 2060 y 2080). (Metodología) Se estimó la idoneidad y distribución potencial, con base en registros y variables bioclimáticas, con ayuda de MaxEnt; se realizaron transferencias a 2 escenarios de emisiones de carbono en 3 periodos; por último, se evaluó la pérdida de extensión y disminución de idoneidad ambiental en porcentaje. (Resultados) P. menziesii tiene una distribución potencial actual de 164 110 km2, las zonas con mayor idoneidad ambiental (> 0.5) se ubicaron en el norte del país, específicamente en los estados del norte. No obstante, bajo los escenarios de cambio climático, estas áreas sufrieron mayor disminución de la idoneidad ambiental (> 50 %) y se redujo su extensión entre 50.7 % y 92.6 %; en contraste, las poblaciones más resilientes contra el cambio climático fueron las del sur. (Conclusiones) Pseudotsuga menziesii se ve favorecida por las bajas temperaturas, debido a esto, se espera un decrecimiento drástico en su distribución potencial. Aunada a ello, la idoneidad ambiental bajará a más del 50 % en las regiones norte de la nación. Con una pérdida drástica de superficie, la prevalencia de la especie pudiera encontrarse en un punto de declive.

Abstract (Introduction) Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco is a forest species of great importance for its ecosystem services and commercialization. Currently, it has been documented that climate change is affecting populations in the north of the continent; Nevertheless, how these changes will affect the distribution of the species in the future has not been assessed. (Objective) The objective of this work was to model the environmental suitability and potential distribution of P. menziesii in 3 time periods (2040, 2060 and 2080). (Methodology) Environmental suitability and potential distribution were estimated based on records and bioclimatic variables with the help of MaxEnt; transfers were made to 2 scenarios of carbon emissions in 3 time periods; finally, the loss of extension and decrease of environmental suitability were evaluated as a percentage. (Results) P. menziesii has a current potential distribution of 164 110 km2, the areas with the highest environmental suitability (> 0.5) were located in the north of the country, specifically in the states of north. However, under the climate change scenarios, these zones suffered a greater decrease in their environmental suitability of > 50 %, and their extension was reduced between 50.7 % and 92.6 %, in contrast, the most resilient populations to climate change were those in the south. (Conclusions) Pseudotsuga menziesii is favored by low temperatures, due to this, a drastic reduction in its potential distribution is expected, coupled with this, environmental suitability will drop to more than 50 % in the northern regions of the country. With a drastic loss of area, the prevalence of the species could be at a point of decline.

ABSTRACT Against the background of a sharp decline in soybean planting, rising imports, and natural disasters in China, finding appropriate distribution areas for soybean has become a matter of urgency so that soybean planting policies can be formulated and soybean food security ensured. Among the numerous ecological niche models, the most suitable one for predicting potential distribution areas of soybean in the frigid region must be identified. Based on 65 soybean occurrence points and nine environmental variables, three ecological niche models, MaxEnt, BIOCLIM, and DOMAIN, were applied to the prediction of potential distribution areas for soybean. According to the analytical comparison, the three models predicted the potential distribution of soybean and, specifically, MaxEnt, stood out above the other two models as regards predicting the soybean distribution (Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, AUC = 0.916, Kappa = 0.685). The potential distribution areas (from low suitability to high suitability) predicted by MaxEnt was the largest and accounted for 59.5 % of the total area. The potential suitable distribution area of soybean was mainly concentrated in relatively flat terrain. The Sanjiang Plain and the Northeast Plain accounted for 9.4 % of the total area in the frigid region and are highly suitability for soybean. At the same time, annual mean temperature, elevation and Apr solar radiation were the key determinants affecting soybeans’ habitat. On the whole, the selection of ecological niche models and the prediction of soybean potential distribution can provide an essential reference for soybean planting and planning. Moreover, it would be a reliable example for the subsequent related research on soybean habitats. imports China ensured identified 6 variables BIOCLIM DOMAIN comparison specifically Receiver curve 0916 0 916 0.916 0.685. 0685 0.685 . 685 0.685) from 595 59 5 59. terrain 94 9 4 9. time temperature soybeans habitat whole planning Moreover habitats 091 91 0.91 068 0.68 68 09 0.9 06 0.6 0.

ABSTRACT Amanita phalloides is a native European deathly ectomycorrhizal mushroom that was introduced to North America and has been expanding its distribution during the last decades. This species is morphologically similar to wild edible mushrooms and if its distribution expands to Mexico, it could represent a risk in terms of food security for local communities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential climatic suitability that exists for A. phalloides in North America and overlay it with the distribution of mycophilic communities in Mexico under a baseline climatic scenario and climate change scenarios. To find climatic suitability we modeled its potential distribution with the algorithm that had the best predictive power after pilot test (MaxEnt) using species presences and eight climatic variables chosen with biological and statistical criteria. We worked with CanESM5 because it is one of the best models to simulate climate in North America and SSP5-8.5 scenario in order to be consistent with the precautionary principle. Our results suggest that even when the species has not yet been registered in Mexico, when using European records to model, this country presents 33.61% of climatic suitability for this species under the baseline scenario, potentially affecting about 70% of indigenous communities which are the main consumers of edible mushrooms. Under climate change scenarios, an increase in climatic suitability is expected in Mexico, while decreases are expected in United States and Canada. When using North American records to model, almost no climatic suitability is found in Mexico; however, the implementation of warning campaigns in Mexico is still needed.

RESUMEN Amanita phalloides es un hongo ectomicorrízico mortal nativo de Europa que ha sido introducido en Norteamérica y cuya distribución se ha expandido en las últimas décadas. Esta especie es morfológicamente muy similar a especies silvestres comestibles y si su distribución se expande a México puede representar un riesgo para comunidades locales. El propósito de este estudio fue evaluar si existe idoneidad climática para A. phalloides en Norteamérica y si se empalma con comunidades micofílicas de México en un escenario climático base y en escenarios de cambio climático. Para identificar la aptitud climática se modeló a la especie con el algoritmo que obtuvo el mejor desempeño (MaxEnt) después de una prueba piloto con presencia de especies y ocho variables climáticas seleccionadas con criterios biológicos y estadísticos. Se trabajó con CanESM5 porque las evaluaciones de este modelo indican que simula bien el clima de Norteamérica, y con el SSP5-8.5 para ser consistentes con el principio precautorio. Los resultados sugieren que, aunque la especie no ha sido registrada en México, al utilizar registros europeos para modelar se encuentra aptitud climática en 33.61% del país en el escenario base, la cual se empalma con 70% de las comunidades indígenas, que son las mayores consumidoras de hongos silvestres. En escenarios de cambio climático, se espera un incremento en la aptitud climática de México y disminuciones en Estados Unidos y Canadá. Cuando se usan únicamente los registros norteamericanos para modelar, prácticamente no se encuentra aptitud climática en México. En cualquier caso, la implementación de campañas de alerta en México es necesaria.

ABSTRACT Background: Today, the biggest threat to mammalian predators with wide distribution areas is habitats fragmentation or changing climate conditions. We aimed to reveal the habitat suitability modeling and mapping of the Brown bear, which is an important large mammal in Turkey’s borders, under change climate. The habitat suitability modelling was determined using the present (2010) and future (2040-2070-2100) chelsa climate scenarios (IPSL-CM6A-LR SSP126-SSP370-SSP585) Maxent method with the present data obtained by examining all studies on Brown bear. Then, the mapping result values for the different years and scenarios were classified as 0.5 unsuitable habitats, 0.51-0.8 suitable habitats and 0.81-1.0 most suitable habitats. Results: We determined that the variables contributing to the habitat suitability model of Brown bear are annual precipitation amount, the average annual air temperature, the precipitation amount of the wettest month, the ruggedness and elevation. According to the mapping results for different years and scenarios; Brown bear have suitable habitat a minimum of 14.87% of the study area in today, 12.56% in 2040 year, 10.93% in 2070 year and 8.24% in 2100 year. According to the SSP585 climate scenario of 2100 year, the habitat suitability of the Brown bear decreases by approximately 45%. Also, the climate envelope model created with MaxEnt revealed, the change climate in the 2100 year endangered the Brown bear. Conclusion: Therefore, these results will be a source of information for the sustainability of the extinction of the Brown bear, for the pre-protection of existing and potential habitats and for reducing the impact of change climate conditions. Background Today conditions Turkeys Turkey s borders 2010 (2010 204020702100 (2040-2070-2100 IPSLCM6ALR IPSLCMALR IPSL CM6A LR CM A SSP126SSP370SSP585 SSPSSPSSP SSP126 SSP370 SSP SSP126-SSP370-SSP585 Then 05 0 5 0. 0.510.8 05108 0.51 0.8 51 8 0.51-0. 0.811.0 08110 0.81 1.0 81 1 0.81-1. Results temperature month elevation 1487 14 87 14.87 today 1256 12 56 12.56 204 1093 10 93 10.93 207 824 24 8.24 210 SSP58 45 45% Also revealed Conclusion Therefore preprotection pre protection 201 (201 20402070210 (2040-2070-210 IPSLCM ALR CMA SSP126SSP370SSP58 SSP12 SSP37 SSP126-SSP370-SSP58 510 0.510. 0510 051 08 0.51-0 811 0.811. 0811 081 1. 0.81-1 148 14.8 125 12.5 20 109 9 10.9 82 2 8.2 21 SSP5 4 (20 2040207021 (2040-2070-21 SSP126SSP370SSP5 SSP1 SSP3 SSP126-SSP370-SSP5 0.510 0.51- 0.811 0.81- 14. 12. 10. 8. (2 204020702 (2040-2070-2 SSP126SSP370SSP SSP126-SSP370-SSP ( 20402070 (2040-2070- 2040207 (2040-2070 204020 (2040-207 20402 (2040-20 (2040-2 (2040- (2040 (204

ABSTRACT Coniophora olivacea has been traditionally considered as an important decay agent of building timbers of broadleaf and conifer woods, and causes significant damage on doors, window frames and other wood structures exposed to the environment. A more restricted role as tree pathogen has been also reported in cold climates. Studies of the predicted distribution of potentially invasive species are a useful tool to focus management efforts. Maximum-Entropy models allow predictions based on climatic and altitudinal layers as well as on previous data on the occurrence of species. The aim of this work is to report the presence of this wood decay fungus for the first time in Patagonia, and also to predict the potential spread pattern of this species using Maximum-Entropy.

RESUMEN Coniophora olivacea se ha considerado tradicionalmente un importante degradador de madera en obra de coníferas y latifoliadas, y también se reportan daños en puertas, marcos de ventanas y otras estructuras de madera expuestas a la intemperie. Un rol más restringido como patógeno forestal se ha citado en climas fríos. Los estudios que predicen la distribución de especies potencialmente invasoras son una herramienta para focalizar los esfuerzos de manejo de las mismas. Los modelos de Máxima En- tropía permiten predicciones basadas en capas altitudinales y climáticas, así como también en datos preexistentes sobre la distribución de las especies. El objetivo de este trabajo es reportar la presencia de este degradador por primera vez en Patago- nia, y estudiar sus patrones de propagación usando modelos de Máxima Entropía orientados a predecir su comportamiento.

Resumen Introducción. El tizón foliar por Cercospora (TFC) y la mancha púrpura de la semilla (MPS) son dos enfermedades endémicas de soja (Glycine max) en la Argentina. Objetivo. Seleccionar las variables bioclimáticas (VB) relacionadas con los valores de severidad mayor o igual al 90 % del TFC y/o de incidencia mayor o igual al 50 % de la MPS en Argentina. Materiales y métodos. En la región sojera de la Argentina durante los años 2015 y 2016 se utilizaron 45 VB disponibles en Worldclim (temperaturas, precipitaciones y radiación), para la modelización con el programa MaxEnt. De los mapas obtenidos en la modelización, se extrajeron las probabilidades de una severidad (SEV) del TFC ≥ 90 % y/o una incidencia (I) de la MPS ≥ 50 % para cada punto geográfico evaluado en esta experiencia, para luego utilizarlos en la generación de las regresiones lineales múltiples. Resultados. De las 45 VB analizadas las que más se relacionaron con ambas enfermedades fueron la precipitación y la temperatura. La radiación fue la VB con menos asociación tanto con la severidad (SEV) del tizón foliar por Cercospora como con la incidencia de la mancha púrpura de la semilla. Conclusión. Las variables bioclimáticas temperaturas (entre los 25 °C y los 30 °C) y las precipitaciones entre los meses de diciembre a abril tuvieron las mayores asociaciones con los valores de severidad mayor o igual al 90 % del TFC y/o de incidencia mayor o igual al 50 % de la MPS en Argentina.

Abstract Introduction. Cercospora Leaf Blight (CBL) and Purple Seed Stain (PSS) are two endemic diseases of soybean (Glycine max) in Argentina. Objective. To select the bioclimatic variables (VBs) associated to the severity values equal to or greater than 90 % of the CBL and/or incidences equal to or greater than 50 % for the PSS in Argentina. Materials and methods. In the soybean region of Argentina between 2015 and 2016, 45 VBs available in Worldclim (temperatures, precipitations, and radiation) were used for modeling with the MaxEnt program. From the maps obtained in the modeling, the probabilities of a severity (SEV) of CBL ≥ 90 % and/or an incidence (I) of PSS ≥ 50 % were extracted for each geographical point evaluated in this study, subsequently used in generating multiple linear regressions. Results. Among of the 45 analyzed VBs, precipitation and temperature showed the strongest association with both diseases. Radiation exhibited the least association with both Cercospora Leaf Blight severity (SEV) and Purple Seed Stain incidence. Conclusion. Bioclimatic variables such as temperatures (between 25 °C and 30 °C) and precipitation between the months of December to April exhibited the strongest associations with severity values equal to or greater than 90 % of the CBL and/or incidences equal to or greater than 50 % for PSS in Argentina.

Resumen Introducción: La Rata de Magdalena, Xenomys nelsoni, es un roedor endémico de México, de distribución restringida a las selvas bajas caducifolias densas, en una pequeña región de la costa del Pacífico mexicano. Es una especie poco conocida, catalogada como “En Peligro” de acuerdo con la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (IUCN). Este desconocimiento unido a la alta tasa de deforestación de su hábitat hace que su conservación sea prioritaria. Objetivo: Realizar un recuento histórico de los registros depositados en las colecciones científicas, generar mapas de distribución potencial y analizar el estado de conservación de la especie. Método: Los datos de ocurrencia de las especies se obtuvieron de la literatura y bases de datos digitales y se analizaron por décadas. Se utilizaron los programas GARP y MaxEnt para generar los modelos de nicho ecológico. La importancia de las variables en el modelo se estimó mediante un análisis Jackknife. Resultados: A lo largo de 129 años 19 recolectores registraron 69 ejemplares, de los cuales 65 están depositados en siete colecciones internacionales y una nacional. Aunque la especie sólo se ha recolectado en Jalisco y Colima, la distribución potencial de X. nelsoni incluye también el estado de Michoacán. De esta área estimada, sólo el 1.5 % se encuentra dentro de un Área Natural Protegida. Conclusiones: Los resultados de la distribución potencial podrían ser utilizados para verificar la presencia de la especie en lugares donde no ha sido recolectada como el norte de la Reserva de la Biosfera Chamela-Cuixmala y en algunas zonas de la provincia fisiográfica Costas del Sur en el estado de Michoacán. Es necesario incrementar los muestreos en regiones poco estudiadas predichas por el modelo y aumentar el área de protección.

Abstract Introduction: The Magdalena Rat, Xenomys nelsoni, is a rodent endemic to Mexico, whose distribution is restricted to dense tropical dry forests in a small region on the Pacific coast of Mexico. It is a poorly known species categorized as “Endangered” by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This lack of knowledge and the high rates of deforestation of its habitat makes its conservation a priority. Objective: To summarize the historical records deposited in scientific collections, to create potential distribution maps, and to analyze the conservation status of the species. Methods: We obtained species occurrence data from literature and digital databases, analyzing them by the decade. We used GARP and MaxEnt software to generate the ecological niche models. The importance of the variables in the model was estimated using the Jackknife technique. Results: Over 129 years, 19 collectors registered 69 specimens, of which 65 are deposited in one national and seven international collections. Although the species has only been collected in Jalisco and Colima, the potential distribution for X. nelsoni also includes the state of Michoacán. Of this estimated area, only 1.5 % is in a Protected Natural Area. Conclusions: The results of the potential distribution could be used to verify the presence of the species in places where it has not been collected, such as the northern part of the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve and in some areas of the physiographic province Costas del Sur in the state of Michoacán. It is needed to increase samplings in the least studied regions predicted by the model and expand the area of protection.

ABSTRACT Finger citron (Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis (Hoola van Nooten) Swingle; Rutaceae: Citrus) is an important plant for both medicine and food. Due to the lack of suitability analysis, many problems have arisen in its planting. According to the daily observation data, Kriging interpolation was selected to spatialize precipitation and temperature data. MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to simulate the suitable areas of finger citron in China from the perspectives of bioclimate, soil, topographic factors and human activities in 2050s and 2090s. Results showed that temperature annual range (Bio7), annual precipitation (Bio12), human footprint (Hf), elevation (El) and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were identified as the dominant environmental variables related to the distribution of finger citron. Spatiotemporal distribution of annual precipitation (Bio12) showed that in the future, the precipitation in South China tends to decrease first (2050s) and then increase (2090s). The spatio-temporal analysis of temperature annual range (Bio7) showed that the 20-30 ℃ region was relatively stable in the Sichuan Basin and the middle and lower reaches of the Pearl River Basin. Under the future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area showed a significant increase trend in 2090s, and the change of most, moderately and poorly suitable habitats showed no obvious law. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the centroid of the most suitable habitat of finger citron would move to the northwest, southeast and southwest respectively. Our results can effectively carry out to promote the recovery of its population.

Resumen La especie Heterophrynus boterorum es endémica de Colombia, fue descrita en 2013 y han sido registrados pocos especímenes. Presenta variación morfológica, la cual podría asociarse con las condiciones ambientales, o a procesos de aislamiento. Se modeló la distribución potencial de la especie usando MaxEnt, para conocer otras posibles localidades de ocurrencia y la influencia de las variables ambientales que pueden condicionar su presencia. Adicionalmente, se contrastó la distribución potencial con el Sistema de Áreas Protegidas en Colombia. La especie presenta una distribución potencial hacia la región central de los Andes, sobre las Cordilleras Central y Occidental. La precipitación y la temperatura, en especial durante la temporada más seca, fueron las variables más influyentes en el modelo, lo cual es coherente con los requerimientos de humedad y estabilidad climática en Amblypygi. Solo una de las poblaciones conocidas está registrada dentro de un área protegida, por tanto, es necesario diseñar mejores estrategias de conservación para preservar a H. boterorum.

Abstract The species Heterophrynus boterorum is endemic to Colombia, and was described in 2013 with just a few specimens. It has morphological variation that may be correlated with environmental conditions, or with isolation processes. We modeled the potential distribution of this species using software Maxent in order to know of other possible occurrence localities and the influence of environmental variables which can condition its presence. Additionally, we contrasted the potential distribution with the National System of Protected Areas of Colombia. The species has a potential distribution in the central region of the Andes in the Cordillera Central and Occidental, which connects all known populations. Precipitation and temperature, especially during the driest season, were the most influential variables in the model, which is coherent regarding the requirements for humidity and climatic stability in Amblypygi. Only one of the known populations is recorded in a protected area, so it is necessary to design better conservation strategies to preserve H. boterorum.

Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are one of the most widely used tools to predict areas with potential for occurrence of native, invasive and endangered species, based on current and future environmenal and climate conditions. Despite their global use, evaluating the accuracy of SDMs based only on presence records is still a challenge. The performance of models depends on the sample size and species prevalence. Recently, studies to model the distribution of species in the Caatinga biome in Northeast Brazil have gained force, raising the question about the minimum number of presence records adjusted to different prevalences that are necessary to generate accurate SDMs. In this context, the objective of this study was to indicate minimum numbers of presence records for species with different prevalences in the Caatinga biome to obtain accurate SDMs. For that purpose, we used a method involving simulated species and performed repeated evaluations of the models’ performance in function of the sample size and prevalence. The results indicated that for this approach in the Caatinga biome, the minimum required numbers of specimen records were 17 and 30 for species with narrow and widespread distributions, respectively. (SDMs native conditions use challenge prevalence Recently force context purpose 1 3 distributions respectively

Abstract The Caatinga biome is the largest dry tropical forest region in South America as well as one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to the climate changes forecast for this century. Climate forecasts for the biome include increased air temperature, reduced rainfall and aridization. This biome does not have a homogeneous landscape; instead it has several rainforest enclaves. This article describes a study to model the potential distribution of four epiphytic cactus species (Epiphyllum phyllanthus (L.) Haw., Rhipsalis floccosa Salm-Dyck ex Pfeiff., Rhipsalis lindbergiana K. Schum and Rhipsalis russellii Britton & Rose.) in the biome under future climate scenarios and traces out a prognosis for the enclaves and the biome. For that purpose, we used the MaxEnt modeling method, considering two future time intervals (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) and the interval 1961-1990 for the current situation, with the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The projections for future potential distribution showed a spatial contractions greater than 88% found in the areas of high potential presence for the target species throughout the biome and in all the scenarios. The results strengthen the expectation of aridization in the Caatinga biome, with the loss or shrinkage of rainforest enclaves as time progresses. century temperature landscape Epiphyllum L. L (L. Haw Haw. SalmDyck Salm Dyck Pfeiff Pfeiff. K Rose. Rose purpose method 20412060 2041 2060 (2041-206 20612080 2061 2080 2061-2080 19611990 1961 1990 1961-199 situation RCP45 RCP RCP4 5 RCP4. 85 8 8. 88 progresses (L 2041206 204 206 (2041-20 2061208 208 2061-208 1961199 196 199 1961-19 204120 20 (2041-2 206120 2061-20 196119 19 1961-1 20412 2 (2041- 20612 2061-2 19611 1 1961- (2041 2061- (204 (20 (2 (

Abstract Melanoides tuberculata is a freshwater snail native to Old World tropical areas but has invaded tropical and subtropical regions around the world. In Argentina, populations established in natural environments were reported from northeastern tropical provinces. Here we report for the first time the presence of M. tuberculata in a geothermally warmed channel in temperate Southern Pampas. We mapped its distribution in the channel, searched for its presence in five nearby basins, estimated the risk of establishment and expansion in Argentina with distribution models and analyzed shape variation through geometric morphometrics. Melanoides tuberculata was recorded exclusively in the channel in sites with temperatures between 20 and 40°C, with almost no overlap with other snails. No evidence of M. tuberculata was found in nearby basins. The distribution model predicted that only northernmost areas from Argentina are suitable for this species, where it could impact snail communities and food webs if introduction through the aquarium trade is not prevented. The absence of males indicates parthenogenetic reproduction and probably a recent invasion. Shell shape variation in this population, 15 % of which is attributable to allometry, encompasses the shapes of specimens from other South American populations, suggesting that all belong to the same lineage. world provinces M Pampas basins morphometrics 2 40C C 40 40°C snails species prevented invasion population 1 allometry lineage 4

ABSTRACT Background: Over the last decade, a significant area of Zagros forests, especially in Ilam Province, west of Iran, has been affected by the phenomenon of oak decline. The most basic item for fighting the decline of these forests is to know site suitability, the parameters affecting it, determining the criteria affecting the decline and preparing a map of the decline potential of these forests. In this study, the efficiency of Maxent on preparing site suitability map of Dalab and Bankol and the most important criteria affecting P.Oak decline was investigated by TOPSIS. The integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) was used to prepare a zoning map of decline potential of P.Oak site. Validation of maps was done with receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and field visits. Results: The results showed that pc-forest, distance from rivers and temperature are the most important criteria of the distribution of P.Oak. In addition, many parts of both sites were found to lack site suitability. The results of TOPSIS showed that the most important criteria of P.Oak decline are socio-economic criteria. Conclusions: Decline potential in Bankol was much higher and the pressure caused by stressful criteria was higher in this site. The results showed 6 general stresses of land use change, grazing, pests, charcoal disease, fires and tourism in two sites. Dalab has shown a better condition in terms of decline potential. The reason for this is the operation of conservation management in this site. The obtained results show the efficiency of the used methods. Background decade Province Iran it study POak P Oak InVEST (InVEST ROC (ROC visits Results pcforest, pcforest pc forest, forest pc-forest addition socioeconomic socio economic Conclusions change grazing pests disease methods

RESUMEN Los bosques templados mexicanos se encuentran entre los más biodiversos del mundo. En la actualidad enfrentan presiones antrópicas aunadas al cambio climático. Quercus candicans es una especie dominante en el dosel, ampliamente distribuida, común en las zonas húmedas de estos ecosistemas. Su importancia ecológica, la vulnerabilidad de su hábitat y su amplia distribución lo convierten en un modelo útil para evaluar la vulnerabilidad de las especies forestales arbóreas mexicanas al cambio climático. Se utilizó la modelación de nicho ecológico para estimar la idoneidad climática futura de esta especie y los posibles cambios de su distribución potencial en dos escenarios de emisiones y tres periodos de tiempo. También se identificaron las áreas donde podrían surgir nuevos climas y donde las predicciones deben interpretarse con cautela. Además, se analizó cómo podría cambiar la idoneidad climática en todo el sistema nacional de áreas protegidas. En ambos escenarios de emisiones, se predijo que las áreas con condiciones climáticas adecuadas experimentarían una reducción neta de más del 40% para 2070. Esto corresponde a más de 100 000 km2 que potencialmente pueden ser climáticamente inadecuados. En las áreas protegidas nacionales, se proyecta una contracción de aproximadamente 30%. Los climas nuevos, es decir, aquellos no presentes en la actualidad, pueden aumentar de manera considerable en el escenario de mayores emisiones (RCP 8.5), representando el 10% de las montañas templadas mexicanas, en comparación con el 1% en el RCP 4.5. El incremento en áreas idóneas que no se entrecruzan con nuevos climas ocurre en zonas altamente afectadas por el cambio en el uso de la tierra y otras presiones antrópicas. La protección oportuna y eficaz de las especies arbóreas de bosques templados (como Q. candicans) debería permitir migraciones a través de gradientes altitudinales, ya que se proyectan áreas de estabilidad e idoneidad climática en las secciones de mayor altitud de las cadenas montañosas.

ABSTRACT Mexican temperate forests are among the most biodiverse in the world. At present, they face anthropogenic pressures and climatic changes. Quercus candicans is a canopy-dominant, widely distributed species common in the moist habitats of these ecosystems. Its ecological importance, habitat vulnerability, and wide distribution make it a useful model of the vulnerability of Mexican tree forest species to climate change. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate future climatic suitability for this species and its potential range shifts under two emissions scenarios and three-time frames. We also identified areas where novel climates could arise and where predictions should be interpreted cautiously. Additionally, we analyzed how climatic suitability could change across the national protected areas system. In both emissions scenarios, areas with suitable climatic conditions were predicted to experience a net reduction of more than 40% by 2070. This corresponds to more than 100 000 km2 becoming climatically unsuitable. In the national protected areas, we forecast a contraction of approximately 30%. Climatic novelty increased considerably in the higher emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), accounting for 10% of the Mexican temperate mountains, compared to 1% on RCP 4.5. Areas of expansion of suitability not intersected by novel climates occur in areas highly affected by land-use change and other anthropogenic pressures. Effective protection of temperate forests’ tree species such as Q. candicans would need to allow migrations across altitudinal gradients, as areas of stability and expansion of climatic suitability are forecasted to occur at higher altitude sections of mountain ranges.