Abstract The pathogen causing the so-called fusarium wilt of the Musaceae, Fusarium oxysporum, f. sp. Tropical Race 4 (Foc TR4), recently classified as Fusarium odoratissimum Maryani, Lombard, Kema & Crous, 2019, is a fungus that poses a phytosanitary threat to global food security. It is considered the most devastating disease affecting the genus Musa, accounting for considerable losses in banana production in the affected regions. Foc TR4 was first spotted in plantations of the of Cavendish banana trees in Taiwan in 1967, then spreading to Malaysia, Java, Gran Canaria, the Philippines, and North Australia in the 1990s. In the 18 years that followed, it spread further to countries such as Laos, Vietnam, India, Myanmar, and Thailand; in other words, for nearly 30 years, its presence was restricted to Southeast Asia. However, during this period, there was the first transcontinental dispersal of fusarium into the Eastern hemisphere, spreading toward the Middle East and Africa, specifically Oman, Jordan, northern Mozambique, Lebanon, and Pakistan, then reaching Turkey in the year 2020. A transcontinental alert emerged again at the end of 2019 when Foc TR4 was first reported in America, specifically in La Guajira, Colombia, which certainly poses a potential threat to banana regions throughout America. The dispersal and potential establishment of Foc TR4 in the Americas can severely affect the regional economy and food security, where around 36.4% of global production is produced, with the marketing of some 14.5 million tons. Jointly, the Regional Agency for Agricultural Health (OIRSA*), the Andean Community (CAN*), the Southern Plant Health Committee (COSAVE*), the North American Plant Protection Organization (NAPPO) as Regional Plant Protection Bodies (RPPBs), as well as the National Plant Protection Organizations (NPPOs) of the member countries and other countries across the Americas, argue that the fusarium wilt of the Musaceae poses a continental phytosanitary threat due to potential adverse effects on the banana production chain. Therefore, the objective of this research was to characterize the areas facing a phytosanitary risk of Foc TR4 under different risk levels. We used a phytosanitary geospatial approach to identify potential scenarios for the introduction and establishment of the pathogen on a global scale, with a particular focus on pantropical America. The specific objectives were to: 1) model the environmental similarity of the pathogen/host using the Maxent or ecological niche model; 2) estimate the economic damage potential (EDP) derived from the spatial association of trade nodes (source/destination); and 3) estimate the phytosanitary risk of the fusarium wilt of the Musaceae through a multi-criteria spatial assessment at different geographic scales (global and sub-continental “pantropical America”). The phytosanitary geospatial analysis integrated epidemic and spatial components, facilitating the definition of focal areas facing the highest global phytosanitary risk in Southeast Asia (insular region), South Asia, Central Africa, and Madagascar) and South America, in addition to various regions of Central and North America where conditions exist for the spread of the disease. In the Americas, we estimated approximately 15.8 million km2 with a phytosanitary risk, classified into five risk levels: very high, high, medium, low, and very low. A greater spatial resolution made possible to characterize the pantropical region of the Americas and identify the regions facing some level of phytosanitary risk in 2 countries in North America, 7 in Central America, 13 in South America, and 23 in the Caribbean region. However, there are territories with optimal characteristics for the establishment of the disease, i.e., potentially facing a very high phytosanitary risk (> 0.9), encompassing extensive areas in Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico, Guyana, Guatemala, Venezuela, Panama, and Colombia, which altogether encompass 26,598 km2, statistically supported by Moran’s Index. The results obtained can be considered a technical/scientific tool with the potential to strengthen and focus actions to prevent the spread of this pathogen on the pantropical region of America. It is considered an input that can strengthen the traditional pest risk analysis (PRA) carried out by regional and national plant protection organizations.
Resumen La comúnmente llamada Fusariosis de las musáceas es un patógeno que representa una amenaza para la seguridad alimentaria global. Es responsable de pérdidas considerables en la producción de plátano y banano en el mundo. Por casi 30 años, su presencia se restringió al Sureste asiático, sin embargo, en agosto de 2019 se detectó por vez primera en Colombia y se consideró un nuevo riesgo fitosanitario en América. Se modelaron los patrones espaciales de Fusarium oxysporum, f. sp. cubense raza 4 tropical (FocR4T) a nivel global y subcontinental (América pantropical) bajo un enfoque que integró los componentes epidémico y espacial, e incluyó la distribución potencial (patógeno/hospedante) y el potencial de daño económico por asociación espacial de nodos comerciales (origen/destino), lo cual se integró mediante la evaluación multicriterio (MCDA). A nivel territorial se caracterizaron cinco niveles de riesgo fitosanitario (muy alto, alto, medio, bajo y muy bajo). A escala global se determinó la existencia de cuatro áreas focales donde existen condiciones para la ocurrencia de la enfermedad. En la América pantropical se determinó la existencia de 26 598 km2 en riesgo fitosanitario muy alto (>0.9) ubicado por mayor extensión en Ecuador, Brasil, México, Guyana, Guatemala, Venezuela, Panamá y Colombia, aunque también existen 15.8 millones de km2 con un nivel de riesgo inferior. La cartografía obtenida representa una herramienta valiosa para fortalecer y direccionar las acciones preventivas en la dispersión de este patógeno en la región y se considera un insumo técnico/científico que fortalece el análisis de riesgo de plagas realizado por las organizaciones regionales y nacionales de protección fitosanitaria.