RESUMEN Los manglares están expuestos a amenazas como el aumento del nivel del mar, la erosión costera, el aumento de la frecuencia e intensidad de eventos extremos, además de presiones socioeconómicas. Este estudio tuvo como objetivo realizar un análisis de vulnerabilidad y riesgo climático para el socioecosistema de manglar de Colombia. Se utilizaron 22 indicadores de amenaza, 8 de sensibilidad y 18 de capacidad adaptativa; mediante un análisis numérico multivariado se generaron los índices de vulnerabilidad y riesgo climático para los manglares del Pacífico y del Caribe de Colombia. Los manglares que presentaron mayor riesgo en el Caribe se ubicaron en los municipios de Manaure, Tubará y Puerto Escondido, mientras que en el Pacífico estas áreas de alto riesgo se ubicaron en la costa sur, en los municipios de Olaya Herrera, Francisco Pizarro y La Tola, y en la costa norte de Bahía Solano. Los indicadores de amenaza que capturaron la mayor variabilidad del análisis fueron: el aumento del nivel del mar, el cambio en la línea de costa, el cambio en la oferta hídrica, el cambio en la cobertura de manglares por cambio en la línea de costa, el cambio en la temperatura y la precipitación debido a El Niño y La Niña, y la huella humana. Estos resultados son un insumo para la gestión climática de los manglares en Colombia y contribuirán al Programa Nacional de Manglares. Asimismo, podrán contribuir al Plan Nacional de Restauración de Manglares, la Contribución Nacionalmente Determinada de Colombia (NDC), la Estrategia Climática de Largo Plazo de Colombia E2050, y los Planes Territoriales de Adaptación al Cambio Climático de los departamentos y municipios.

ABSTRACT The mangroves are exposed to threats such as sea level rise, coastal erosion, increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, in addition to socioeconomic pressures. This study aimed to carry out a vulnerability and risk climate analysis for the Colombian mangrove socioecosystem. 22 threat indicators, eight of sensitivity and 18 of adaptive capacity were used, and through multivariate numerical analysis, the vulnerability and climate risk indices for Colombian Pacific and Caribbean mangroves were generated. The mangroves that presented the highest risk in the Caribbean were located in the Manaure, Tubará and, Puerto Escondido municipalities, while in the Pacific these high-risk areas were located on the southern coast in the Olaya Herrera, Francisco Pizarro, and La Tola municipalities, and in the northern coast in the Bahía Solano municipality. The threat indicators that captured the greatest variability in the analysis were: sea level rise, change in the coastline, change in water supply, change in mangrove coverage due to change in the coastline, change in temperature and precipitation due to El Niño and La Niña, and human footprint. These results are input for climate management of mangroves in Colombia and will contribute to the National Mangrove Program. Likewise, it can contribute to the National Mangrove Restoration Plan, the Nationally Determined Contribution of Colombia (NDC), the Long-Term Climate Strategy of Colombia E 2050, and the Territorial Plans for Climate Change Adaptation of the states and municipalities.

RESUMEN La sobrepesca, la pesca industrial y el cambio climático generan impactos que afectan al recurso pesquero marino, la principal fuente de ingreso y alimento de las poblaciones costeras de pescadores artesanales. La creación de condiciones que incrementen la capacidad de adaptación de los pescadores disminuirá su vulnerabilidad a los impactos. Esta investigación propone determinar una Zona Exclusiva de Pesca Artesanal-ZEPA como estrategia de manejo sostenible de los recursos pesqueros y de adaptación climática para los pescadores artesanales del área de estudio. Se utilizó el programa Marxan para identificar tres escenarios para la ubicación de la ZEPA y se realizó una cartografía participativa con pescadores para obtener el cuarto escenario. Se encontró similitud alta entre el escenario 2 y 4, lo que muestra que el enfoque científico (Marxan) y participativo (población) coinciden en la ubicación de ZEPA. La ZEPA definitiva se ubicó en la zona marino costera de los municipios de Tumaco y Francisco Pizarro, con un área total de 2 008 km2. Incluyó objetos de conservación importantes para la pesca artesanal como caladeros de pesca artesanal, ecosistemas (manglares, playas y estuarios), áreas de ocurrencia de especies (sierra, pargos, corvina, piangua, camarón tití), entre otros. Se identificó que más de 80 % de los pescadores estuvo de acuerdo en que la estrategia le aportaría a reducir su vulnerabilidad frente a amenazas como fenómenos climáticos, sobrepesca, contaminación, entre otros. Se resalta la contribución a la adaptación al cambio climático de la población del área de estudio.

ABSTRACT Overfishing, industrial fishing and climate change generate impacts that affect the marine fishery resource, the main source of income and food for coastal populations of artisanal fishers. The creation of conditions that increase the adaptive capacity of fishers will decrease their vulnerability to impacts. This research proposes to determine an Exclusive Zone for Artisanal Fishing-ZEPA as a strategy for sustainable management of fishery resources and climate adaptation for artisanal fishers in the study area. Marxan was used to identify three scenarios for the location of the ZEPA and participatory mapping was carried out with fishers to obtain the fourth scenario. High similarity was found between scenarios 2 and 4, which shows that the scientific (Marxan) and participatory (population) approaches coincide in the location of the ZEPA. The final ZEPA was located in the coastal marine zone of the municipalities of Tumaco and Francisco Pizarro, with a total area of 2,008 km2. Included important conservation targets for artisanal fisheries such as artisanal fishing grounds, ecosystems (mangroves, beaches and estuaries), areas of occurrence of species (seerfish, snappers, sea bass, piangua, marmoset shrimp) among others. More than 80 % of the fishers agreed that the strategy would help reduce their vulnerability to threats such as climatic phenomena, overfishing, pollution, among others. The contribution to climate change adaptation of the study area’s population is highlighted.

RESUMEN Las especies exóticas introducidas suelen considerarse a veces como oportunistas, llegadas a sus hábitats de acogidas por errores, o simplemente por casualidad. Sin embargo, la vulnerabilidad de un ecosistema puede ser evaluada en función de una serie de especies exóticas que puedan poseer. En este estudio se ha seleccionado una docena de especies exóticas invasoras de Canarias (“dirty dozen”, seleccionadas del Real Decreto 630/2013 y del Real Decreto 216/2019) y se ha realizado una prospección de carreteras de costa a cumbre (5), atravesando todas ellas los principales ecosistemas zonales de la isla. Se seleccionaron cinco carreteras que van desde los casi 0 metros a nivel del mar hasta los 2450 metros la que más altura tiene. Las especies más ampliamente distribuidas que hemos encontrado han sido Pennisetum setaceum, Nicotiana glauca y Agave americana, altamente relacionadas con la degradación del medio o agricultura. Aquellos ecosistemas más relacionados con la agricultura son los más vulnerables a la penetración de especies exóticas, y es un resultado que se mantiene para las zonas de barlovento y sotavento, coincidente con el termófilo, que es el sitio donde inicialmente se estableció la agricultura en Canarias. También se ha podido determinar cómo la altitud, sobre todo a partir de los 1700 metros, actúa como un filtro que impide la colonización por especies invasoras ya que las condiciones ambientales preferentes de dichas especies son las de medianías, que son las que coinciden con el establecimiento de la agricultura.

ABSTRACT Introduced exotic species are often considered opportunistic, having arrived in their host habitats due to errors or simply by chance. However, the vulnerability of an ecosystem can be assessed based on a series of exotic species it may harbor. In this study, a dozen invasive exotic species from the Canary Islands ("dirty dozen," selected from Royal Decree 216/2019) have been chosen, and a survey has been conducted from coastal to summit roads (4), traversing all major zonal ecosystems of the island. Four roads were selected, ranging from nearly 0 meters above sea level to the highest point at 2450 meters. The most widely distributed species we have found are Pennisetum setaceum, Nicotiana glauca, and Agave americana, highly associated with environmental degradation or agriculture. Ecosystems more closely linked to agriculture are the most vulnerable to the infiltration of exotic species, a result that holds true for both windward and leeward areas. This coincides with the thermophilic zone, where agriculture was initially established in the Canary Islands. It has also been determined that altitudes, especially above 2000 meters, would be practically impossible to colonize by invasive species since the preferred environmental conditions of these species are in the mid-altitude zones, which coincide with the establishment of agriculture.

RESUMEN Este trabajo analizó la importancia de integrar las políticas de reducción de riesgos de desastres y la adaptación al cambio climático en los planes de desarrollo socio-económico de los municipios costeros en Cuba. Para ello se llevó a cabo una revisión bibliográfica para localizar las principales fuentes teóricas y bibliográficas sobre reducción de riesgos de desastres, adaptación al cambio climático, municipios costeros y políticas gubernamentales y triangularlas para crear una herramienta de integración en cuatro fases. Esta herramienta permitirá perfeccionar los planes de desarrollo territorial y hacerlos más efectivos, a la vez que potenciará una visión integrada de la reducción de riesgo de desastre y la adaptación al cambio climático como base fundamental para la sostenibilidad de las intervenciones de desarrollo en Cuba.

ABSTRACT This paper analyzed the importance of integrating disaster risk reduction and climate change adapting policies into the socio-economic development plans of coastal municipalities in Cuba. To this end, a literature review was carried out to locate the main theoretical and bibliographical sources on Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation, coastal municipalities and government policies and triangulate them to create a four-phase integration tool. This tool will improve the territorial development plans and make them more effective while promoting an integrated vision of disaster risk reduction and adapting to climate change as a fundamental basis for the sustainability of development in Cuba.

ABSTRACT The Guatemalan Caribbean has a deepwater fishing area close to the shore around the Cayman Trench. This study reports the first record of the bluntnose sixgill shark (Hexanchus griseus) from this fishing area. Fishery-independent surveys using longlines at ~430-465 m depth, ~11 km northeast of El Quetzalito fishing village, were conducted in 2022 and 2023. Two bluntnose sixgill sharks were captured during these surveys. The sharks were females with total lengths of 300 and 310 cm, with morphological characteristics consistent with this species. These are the first confirmed records of bluntnose sixgill sharks in the western Caribbean Sea. Expanding coastal fisheries to deeper waters presents an emerging threat to deep-sea chondrichthyans in the region. Therefore, periodic fisheries monitoring is needed to estimate their vulnerability to fishing pressure.

Abstract Introduction: The objective of this work is to study the ethnobiology of two marine wetlands in southern Chile, identifying local indicators of the impact of climate change, through the analysis of local ecological knowledge. Work was carried out in the marine wetlands of Coihuín and Maullín, located in the Province of Llanquihue, Los Lagos Region, southern Chile. Both places are important sites for the conservation of migratory shorebirds. Methodology: Between November 2022 and March 2023, 35 semi-structured interviews were conducted with people who inhabit and use these marine wetlands. The results indicate that the main work activity is shore collection (of algae and shellfish) and cultivation of Pelillo (Agarophyton chilense). Conclusions: There is important local ecological knowledge of the coastal communities that inhabit the marine wetlands studied. A total of 24 species of plants, algae and animals recognized locally for their medicinal properties were identified. On the other hand, a total of 38 local indicators of the impact of climate change were identified. Social vulnerability to the need to face/adapt to environmental changes, local demands and future lines of research are discussed.

Resumen Objetivo: el objetivo de este trabajo es estudiar la etnobiología de dos humedales marinos del sur de Chile, identificando indicadores locales de impacto del cambio climático, mediante el análisis del conocimiento ecológico local. Se trabajó en los humedales marinos de Coihuín y de Maullín, ubicados en la Provincia de Llanquihue, Región de Los Lagos, sur de Chile. Ambos lugares son sitios de importancia para la conservación de aves playeras migratorias. Metodología: entre noviembre del 2022 y marzo 2023, se realizaron 35 entrevistas semiestructuradas a personas que habitan y utilizan estos humedales marinos. Los resultados indican que la principal actividad laboral es la recolección de orilla (de algas y mariscos) y cultivo del alga Pelillo (Agarophyton chilense). Conclusiones: existe un importante conocimiento ecológico local de las comunidades litorales que habitan los humedales marinos estudiados. Se identificó un total de 24 especies de plantas, algas y animales reconocidos localmente por sus propiedades medicinales. Por otra parte, se identificó un total de 38 indicadores locales de impacto del cambio climático. Se discute la vulnerabilidad social ante la necesidad de afrontar/adaptarse a los cambios ambientales, las sugerencias locales y futuras líneas de investigación.

RESUMEN La crisis ambiental por el cambio climático ha obligado a muchos Estados a dirigir esfuerzos hacia la transición medioambiental para reducir la probabilidad de ocurrencia de una situación con un impacto negativo sobre su población o medioambiente. El Perú no es la excepción. En tal sentido, surge la necesidad de identificar y categorizar sus distritos según un determinado riesgo socioambiental. Ante tal reto, se construyó e implementó una metodología cuantitativa multietápica, la cual hizo uso tanto del aprendizaje automatizado (supervisado y no supervisado) como de la econometría espacial. Los resultados de la metodología, visualizados a través de índices de riesgo emergentes, evidenciaron la existencia de 165 distritos considerados zonas con riesgo socioambiental (ZRS), ubicados en su mayoría en la franja costera. Finalmente, se concluye que el patrón y replicabilidad del modelo de desarrollo urbanístico en el Perú actualmente no es coherente con los esfuerzos de conservación y preservación del medioambiente.

ABSTRACT The environmental crisis due to climate change has forced many States to direct efforts towards environmental transition to reduce the probability of occurrence of a situation with a negative impact on their population or environment. Peru is no exception. In this sense, the need arises to identify and categorize its districts according to a certain socio-environmental risk. Faced with this challenge, a multistage quantitative methodology was developed and implemented, which made use of both machine learning (supervised and unsupervised) and spatial econometrics. The results of this methodology, visualized through emerging risk indix, evidenced the existence of 165 districts considered socio-environmental risk zones (SERZ, in Spanish known as ZRS), mostly located in the coastal strip. Finally, it is concluded that the pattern and replicability of urban development model in Peru is currently not coherent with efforts towards environmental conservation and preservation.

Abstract Resilience of urban mobility is an emerging topic, with most studies focusing on natural disasters or technical disturbances. However, there is a gap in understanding the resilience and vulnerability of urban mobility in the face of economic threats and inadequate transport policies, particularly in developing countries such as Brazil, characterized by social inequality and urban segregation. This study sheds light on the issue of urban inequalities and segregation, aiming to identify the most vulnerable and resilient areas of Rio de Janeiro in the event of an economic crisis. We assessed the resilience and vulnerability of the public transport system with commonly used accessibility indicators, applying fuzzy logic to data from 160 districts. We considered a scenario without the fare subsidy program. The results indicate that districts with better access to high-capacity transport systems and job opportunities exhibit higher levels of resilience and lower vulnerability. However, the study also uncovers socio-spatial inequalities, with resilience values tending to be higher in coastal areas and central business districts, exacerbating disparities. Addressing urban inequalities and segregation requires not only improving travel times and transportation systems but also considering the economic impact on vulnerable populations and promoting decentralized employment opportunities. topic disturbances However policies Brazil crisis indicators 16 program highcapacity high capacity sociospatial socio spatial disparities 1

Resumo A resiliência da mobilidade urbana é um tema emergente, com a maioria dos estudos focando em desastres naturais ou distúrbios técnicos. No entanto, há uma lacuna na compreensão da resiliência e da vulnerabilidade da mobilidade urbana diante de ameaças econômicas e políticas de transporte inadequadas, principalmente em países em desenvolvimento, como o Brasil, caracterizados por desigualdade social e segregação urbana. Este estudo lança luz sobre a questão das desigualdades e da segregação urbana, com o objetivo de identificar as áreas mais vulneráveis e resilientes do Rio de Janeiro, no caso de uma crise econômica. Avaliamos a resiliência e a vulnerabilidade do sistema de transporte público usando indicadores de acessibilidade comumente usados, aplicando lógica difusa a dados de 160 distritos. Consideramos um cenário sem o programa de subsídio tarifário. Os resultados indicam que os distritos com melhor acesso a sistemas de transporte de alta capacidade e oportunidades de emprego apresentam níveis mais elevados de resiliência e menor vulnerabilidade. No entanto, o estudo também revela desigualdades socioespaciais, com valores de resiliência tendendo a ser maiores nas áreas costeiras e nos distritos centrais de negócios, exacerbando as disparidades. É evidente que enfrentar as desigualdades urbanas e a segregação requer não apenas melhorar os tempos de viagem e os sistemas de transporte, mas também considerar o impacto econômico nas populações vulneráveis e promover oportunidades de emprego descentralizadas. emergente técnicos entanto inadequadas desenvolvimento Brasil Janeiro econômica usados 16 tarifário socioespaciais negócios disparidades descentralizadas 1

Abstract The organization of fish communities into habitat use groups facilitates a replicable understanding of species distribution due to the distinctive characteristics and ecological roles of these groups. Partitioning beta diversity and assessing both species contribution to beta diversity (SCBD) and local contribution to beta diversity (LCBD) can evaluate the ecological importance of each group and measure the uniqueness of each site. This study aimed to comprehend how different habitat groups within the marine fish assemblage in the Ubatumirim Bay contribute to beta diversity and to correlate the uniqueness of each sampling site to their attributes to better understand the importance of habitat use groups and the community composition variation in the bay. We sampled ichthyofauna at six locations within the bay, employing a shrimp trawl net at varying depths. We categorized the 95 identified species into five distinct habitat groups: reef-associated, pelagic-neritic, demersal, benthopelagic, and pelagic-oceanic, each with different ecological characteristics and preferences. However, no significant differences were detected in SCBD among these groups. An increase in LCBD values was observed with the decrease in mean sediment diameter, indicating a higher environmental complexity, possibly acting as an environmental filter. One of the sampled sites, Couves Island, stood out with a significantly higher LCBD value, which underscores the importance of such diverse environments in maintaining regional biodiversity. These findings can serve as a valuable baseline reference in conservation planning and management, particularly in assessing the effectiveness of the recently established Marine Environment Protection Area. For instance, comparing the current observations with future surveys could quantify the impact of this protection initiative, thus providing evidence of management efficacy and showing the potential effects of impacts (such as predatory tourism) in the Ubatumirim Bay area. (SCBD (LCBD bay depths 9 reefassociated, reefassociated reef associated, associated reef-associated pelagicneritic, pelagicneritic pelagic neritic, neritic pelagic-neritic demersal benthopelagic pelagicoceanic, pelagicoceanic oceanic, oceanic pelagic-oceanic preferences However diameter complexity filter sites Island value biodiversity Area instance initiative tourism area

Abstract Anthropization process and climatic changes, mainly deforestation and sea level rise, are factors significantly contributing to the loss of mangrove ecosystems. The aim of our study is to analyze the effects of the dynamics of human activities closely associated with these ecosystems’ degradation. We identify and compare soil use and occupation variations based on information provided by 140 randomly chosen participants at the Caracol County - Haiti. The results analyzed through multivariate regression tests, the most significant exploratory variable for the mangroves’ degradation process was “mangrove occupation”, regardless of age, gender, schooling, time in the same residence, profession, home distance from the mangrove, landslide events, and risk of floods. We have concluded that distance from home, ecological function, intervention in biodiversity conservation, as well as water-climatic and geo-physical threats are factors closely correlated to mangroves’ environmental conservation and management. changes rise ecosystems 14 Haiti tests mangroves occupation, , occupation” age gender schooling residence profession events floods function waterclimatic water geophysical geo physical management 1

Resumen El proceso de antropización y el cambio climático, principalmente la deforestación y el aumento del nivel del mar, son factores que contribuyen significativamente a la pérdida de los ecosistemas de manglares. La investigación analizó los efectos de la dinámica de las actividades humanas en la degradación de estos ecosistemas. Nosotros identificamos y comparamos las variaciones en el uso y ocupación del suelo a partir de información de 140 participantes elegidos al azar en el Municipio de Caracol - Haiti. Los resultados indicó eso la variable más significativa para la degradación del manglar fue la “ocupación del manglar”, independientemente de la edad, genero, escolaridad, tiempo en la misma residencia, profesión de los participantes, distancia residencia/manglar, eventos de deslizamiento y riesgo de inundación. Concluimos que la distancia de la residencia, la función ecológica, la intervención en la conservación de la biodiversidad, las amenazas hidroclimáticas y geofísicas son factores correlacionados con la conservación y manejo ambiental de los manglares. climático mar manglares 14 Haiti manglar, , manglar” edad genero escolaridad residencia residenciamanglar residencia/manglar inundación ecológica biodiversidad 1

Resumo O processo de antropização e as mudanças climáticas, principalmente o desmatamento e a elevação do nível do mar, são fatores que contribuem significativamente para a perda dos ecossistemas de mangue. A pesquisa analisou os efeitos da dinâmica das atividades humanas à degradação desses ecossistemas. Foram avaliadas as variações de uso e ocupação do solo com base em informações de 140 participantes escolhidos aleatoriamente no município de Caracol - Haiti. Os resultados mostraram que a variável mais significativa para a degradação dos manguezais foi a “ocupação do mangue”, independente de idade, gênero, escolaridade, tempo na mesma residência, profissão dos participantes, distância residência/mangue, eventos de deslizamento de terra e risco de inundações. Concluímos que a distância da residência para o mangue, função ecológica, intervenção na conservação da biodiversidade, ameaças hidroclimáticas e geofísicas são fatores correlacionados à conservação e ao manejo ambiental dos manguezais. climáticas mar mangue 14 Haiti , mangue” idade gênero escolaridade residênciamangue residência/mangue inundações ecológica biodiversidade 1

Abstract Functional diversity (FD) is one of the aspects of biodiversity that can best represent eventual changes in the environment. Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) can be used to minimize the potential impacts of fishing on fish stocks. The objective of this study was to evaluate the role of the MPA network in the Abrolhos Bank (Brazil) in relation to the FD of fish fauna. Underwater visual censuses were carried out in no-take, partially protected and unprotected zones. We used FD metrics to assess the MPA network in terms of FD in each zone. The functional hypervolume of the target fish species was calculated. From fishers’ information, we determined the Use Value of the main target species and proposed a Fisheries Functional Vulnerability Index (FFVI), which can indicate management priorities for the species at a local level. The results showed that MPAs maintained higher FD, especially in no-take areas. Two no-take sites showed significant functional divergence values, while one no-take site and one partially protected site showed greater functional richness than unprotected sites. A total of 23 target species accounted for 56% of the functional hypervolume. The FFVI indicated the most vulnerable species. The results indicate that functional metrics may be more informative for assessing the impact of fisheries. In addition, the findings reinforce the need to incorporate the local knowledge of resource users, as recommended by international institutions. (FD environment (MPAs stocks Brazil (Brazil fauna notake, notake no take, take zones zone calculated fishers information FFVI, , (FFVI) level areas values 2 56 fisheries addition users institutions (FFVI 5

Abstract Coastal dunes have a crucial role in offering the ecosystem service of natural coastal protection. This paper investigates the importance of dunes in providing the ecosystem service of natural coastal protection on the North Coast of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (RS) in southern Brazil. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST®) Coastal Vulnerability Model was used to quantify the relative susceptibility to coastal erosion and flooding within the study area. First, the model was run to assess the susceptibility to coastal hazards considering the presence of dunes. Then, the model was run again without the presence of dunes. By comparing the results of the two model simulations, it was possible to identify where dunes contribute to reducing coastal exposure, which indirectly reflects their role in providing the ecosystem service of natural coastal protection. There are two main dune fields in the study area, one in the northern coastal sector and one in the southern sector, respectively in the municipalities of Torres and Cidreira. The index of exposure values produced by the two model simulations were very similar for locations along the Torres coastline. In contrast, along the coast of Cidreira, results from the model simulation without dunes produced higher exposure values than the simulation with the presence of dunes, suggesting that the dunes have an important role in offering natural coastal protection. Dunes are a natural barrier against coastal erosion and flooding, but they are not the only factor influencing the ecosystem service of coastal protection. In Torres, for instance, the local topography and the wind patterns contribute to reducing local exposure. The greatest threat in this sector is the urban sprawl. RS (RS Brazil InVEST® InVEST (InVEST® area First Then Cidreira coastline contrast instance sprawl (InVEST

Resumo As dunas desempenham um papel crucial nos ecossistemas da costa, fornecendo o serviço ecossistêmico de proteção costeira. Este artigo investiga a relevância das dunas na oferta do serviço ecossistêmico de proteção costeira no Litoral Norte do Rio Grande do Sul - RS. A análise empregou o modelo Coastal Vulnerability do Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs - InVEST para quantificar a suscetibilidade à erosão e inundação. Os resultados refletem o valor relativo do nível de exposição a esses riscos costeiros considerando a presença de dunas. Posteriormente, o modelo foi usado novamente, desta vez excluindo a presença das dunas. Assim, foi possível identificar onde a presença das dunas contribui para reduzir a exposição costeira e, indiretamente atribuir no papel das dunas em prover o serviço de proteção costeira. A análise comparativa dos resultados entre as duas simulações mostrou maiores diferenças no setor sul da área de estudo. Os dois principais campos de dunas na área de estudo estão localizados em Cidreira e Torres. No município de Torres, a simulação sem a presença de dunas não apresentou diferenças expressivas de exposição costeira. Já em Cidreira, os valores de exposição costeira aumentaram, indicando que neste local a presença das dunas desempenham um papel relevante no serviço ecossistêmico de proteção costeira. Com isto, as dunas são uma barreira natural contra eventos como de erosão e inundação na linha de costa, porém no processo de mapeamento do serviço ecossistêmico de proteção costeira não é a única variável que é identificada. Isto ficou evidente na porção norte, em Torres, a topografia local, associada com a dinâmica dos ventos influência na barreira natural contra estes eventos. A maior ameaça nesta região está ligada ao processo de expansão da zona urbana. Já na porção sul as dunas contribuem para promover o serviço ecossistêmico de proteção. costa RS Posteriormente novamente Assim Torres aumentaram isto identificada norte urbana

Climate-related severe weather events pose a threat to transport infrastructure. Damage to transport infrastructure, in turn, threatens access to socio-economic opportunities (such as employment, healthcare and education). The aim of this paper is to quantify the volume of transport infrastructure at risk of weather-related hazards in the City of Cape Town, and to estimate the direct economic value thereof. Geographical Information Systems are used to overlay areas that are highly exposed to climate-related threats on the city's transport network and infrastructure, enabling the identification and quantification of the volume of infrastructure at risk. Cost estimates for the rehabilitation or reconstruction of this infrastructure obtained from various experts in the South African transport arena are applied to calculate the economic value of the infrastructure at risk. In total, the transport infrastructure at high risk in the case city is valued at R20 billion. Fires and coastal flooding pose the greatest threat. The analysis presented can inform planners and decision-makers on how to improve the resilience and where to reduce the vulnerability of transport infrastructure in the city.

Resumen Objetivo: Diseñar un proceso prospectivo participativo con base en los escenarios SSP para estimar la vulnerabilidad futura al cambio climático de un territorio costero. Tomando como caso de estudio San Blas, Nayarit; una zona rural con actividad turística en el Pacífico mexicano. Diseño metodológico: Con base en los principios de prospectiva territorial, el método consistió en dos secciones. La elaboración de un diagnostico prospectivo en donde se presenta un modelo para analizar la vulnerabilidad territorial histórica, actual y su tendencia. Y el diseño de un proceso prospectivo participativo, que fue compuesto por la selección de actores clave, la delimitación espacio-temporal, elección de escenarios y dinámica del taller prospectivo. Resultados: De acuerdo con el diagnostico; la vulnerabilidad de la zona aumentó de nivel bajo a nivel medio entre 2000 y 2019, y se proyecta que incremente a nivel medio-alto en 2038. Las zonas más vulnerables resultaron las cubiertas por ecosistemas estuarinos y manglares. De la propuesta metodológica de prospectiva participativa se presenta una guía en formato cuadernillo de trabajo, en donde se describe a detalle la dinámica para conducir el taller abordando tres escenarios SSP. Limitaciones de la investigación: La principal limitante fue la escasez de información a nivel local para analizar cada uno de los componentes de vulnerabilidad en el diagnóstico prospectivo. La aplicación de la propuesta metodológica del taller prospectivo y sus resultados serán motivo de análisis en una segunda fase de la investigación. Hallazgos: La actividad turística orientado al ecoturismo puede ser el vehículo que conduzca la propuesta y aplicación de estrategias de adaptación para reducir la vulnerabilidad de la zona al cambio climático.

Abstract Purpose: To design a participatory prospective process based on SSP scenarios to estimate the future vulnerability to climate change in a coastal territory taking San Blas, Nayarit, a rural area with tourist activity on the Mexican Pacific, as a case study. Methodological design: Based on the principles of territorial prospective, the method consisted of two sections: The development of a prospective diagnosis where a model is presented to analyze historical, current, and trend-based territorial vulnerability and the design of a participatory prospective process, which included the selection of key actors, spatial-temporal delimitation, scenario selection, and dynamics of the prospective workshop. Results: According to the diagnosis, the vulnerability of the area increased from a low to medium level between 2000 and 2019, and it is projected to increase to a medium-high level in 2038. The most vulnerable areas were those covered by estuarine and mangrove ecosystems. Regarding the participatory prospective methodology, a guide in the form of a workbook is presented detailing the dynamics to conduct the workshop, addressing three SSP scenarios. Research limitations: The main limitation was the scarcity of local-level information to analyze each of the vulnerability components in the prospective diagnosis. The application of the proposed methodology for the prospective workshop and its results will be subject to analysis in a second phase of the research. Findings: Ecotourism-oriented tourist activity can serve as the vehicle to drive the proposal and implementation of adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change.

Resumen: El modelado de la línea de costa es indicativo de las tendencias a las que está sometido el sistema costero, ya que es la zona de contacto de la transición continente-océano. En este contexto, los arcos de las playas de Restinga de Marambaia y Macumba/Recreio-Barra da Tijuca (SE de Brasil) fueron evaluados en cuanto a la respuesta de la línea de costa a los forzamientos meteoceanográficos en las escalas temporales de largo y medio plazo, así como se mapearon sus grados de vulnerabilidad. En la escala de largo plazo (1986-2018), se utilizaron imágenes satelitales Landsat, datos de reanálisis de olas del modelo WaveWatch3, registros meteorológicos y mediciones del nivel medio del mar. En la escala de mediano plazo (2016-2018), se levantaron once perfiles topográficos, con muestreo de sedimentos, en las playas de Macumba/Recreio-Barra, además del análisis de registros de boyas oceanográficas en aguas profundas y poco profundas. Por último, estas informaciones permitieron la elaboración de un Índice de Vulnerabilidad de la Costa a la erosión y a las inundaciones. En general, el 18% de la línea de costa está erosionada, el 52% está estable y el 30% avanza. En el periodo analizado, se contabilizaron unos 400 eventos de tormentas, que durante los años de La Niña fueron más enérgicos y culminaron en una erosión más severa. El nivel del mar en la región muestra una tendencia al aumento (1,93 mm/año). La combinación de estos resultados y el grado de ocupación urbana de las playas estudiadas muestran una baja vulnerabilidad en el sector occidental de Marambaia, mientras que los sectores centrales y extremo oriental son altamente vulnerables. En Macumba, el sector oeste presenta una baja vulnerabilidad, en contraste con el sector este que es muy vulnerable. En el arco Recreio-Barra, la vulnerabilidad aumenta de oeste a este. Esto indica que la influencia humana desempeña un papel importante en las zonas que son naturalmente propensas a una alta vulnerabilidad, lo que requiere una mayor comprensión de las condiciones naturales asociadas a las intervenciones humanas.

Resumo: O comportamento da linha de costa é um indicativo das tendências à que o sistema costeiro está submetido, pois é a interface de contato da transição continente-oceano. Neste sentido, a Restinga da Marambaia e os arcos praiais Macumba/Recreio-Barra da Tijuca (SE do Brasil) foram avaliados quanto à resposta da linha de costa às forçantes meteo-oceanográficas nas escalas temporais de longo e médio prazo, bem como foram mapeados seus graus de vulnerabilidade. Na escala de longo prazo (1986-2018), foram utilizadas imagens de satélite Landsat, dados de reanálise de ondas do modelo WaveWatch3, registros meteorológicos e medições do nível médio do mar. Na escala de médio prazo (2016-2018), foram levantados onze perfis topográficos, com coleta de amostras de sedimentos, nas praias Macumba/Recreio-Barra, além da análise dos registros de boias oceanográficas em águas profundas e rasas. Por fim, estas informações permitiram elaborar um Índice de Vulnerabilidade Costeira à erosão e inundação. De modo geral, 18% da linha de costa encontra-se sob erosão, 52% encontra-se estável e 30% está avançando. No período analisado, foram contabilizados cerca de 400 eventos de tempestade, que durante os anos de La Niña foram mais energéticos e culminaram em uma erosão mais severa. O nível do mar na região apresenta tendência de aumento (1,93 mm/ano). O reflexo destes resultados, somado aos graus de ocupação urbana nas praias estudadas, exibem baixa vulnerabilidade no setor oeste da Marambaia, enquanto que os setores central e extremo leste configuram-se como altamente vulneráveis. Na Macumba o setor oeste exibe baixa vulnerabilidade, em contraste com o setor leste que é muito vulnerável. No arco Recreio-Barra nota-se o aumento da vulnerabilidade de oeste para leste. Estes resultados indicam que a influência antrópica tem um papel importante em áreas que são naturalmente propensas à alta vulnerabilidade, exigindo uma maior compreensão das condições naturais associadas às intervenções antrópicas.

Abstract: The coastline pattern is indicative of the trends to which the coastal system is subjected, since it is the contact interface of the continent-ocean transition. In this context, the Restinga da Marambaia and the Macumba/Recreio-Barra da Tijuca beach arcs (SE Brazil) were evaluated as to shoreline response to meteo-oceanographic forcings at the long and medium term time scales, as well as their vulnerability degrees were mapped. On the long-term scale (1986-2018), Landsat satellite imagery, wave reanalysis data from the WaveWatch3 model, meteorological records, and mean sea level measurements were used. At the medium-term scale (2016-2018), eleven topographic profiles were surveyed, with sediment sampling, at Macumba/Recreio-Barra beaches, in addition to the analysis of oceanographic buoy records in deep and shallow waters. Finally, this information allowed the elaboration of a Coastal Vulnerability Index to erosion and flooding. In general, 18% of the coastline is eroded, 52% is stable, and 30% is advancing. In the analyzed period, about 400 storm events were accounted for, which during the La Niña years were more energetic and culminated in more severe erosion. The sea level in the region shows a tendency to increase (1.93 mm/year). The combination of these results and the degree of urban occupation of the studied beaches show low vulnerability in the western sector of Marambaia, while the central and extreme eastern sectors are highly vulnerable. In Macumba the western sector exhibits low vulnerability, in contrast with the eastern sector that is very vulnerable. In the Recreio-Barra arc, vulnerability increases from west to east. These are indicative that human influence plays an important role in areas that are naturally prone to high vulnerability, requiring a greater understanding of the natural conditions associated with human interventions.