Resumo Este projeto teve como objetivo identificar os impactos dos modelos de negócios atuais (agilidade de negócios) e dos principais controles de produtividade (KPIs), mais relevantes em um subsetor de pequenos restaurantes franqueados na Costa Rica (2020-2023). Para o qual se desenvolve uma investigação qualitativa, com entrevistas a 31 gestores de pequenos restaurantes que utilizam franquias nacionais e estrangeiras, para determinar diversas subcategorias de análise e estabelecer denominadores comuns que permitiram a superação da pandemia e a estruturação de uma análise de inclusão e exclusão, para priorizar os aspectos críticos de sucesso, a análise das causas, consequências e efeitos utilizando o método Root Cause para propor melhorias duradouras, sendo a principal constatação: a rigidez do modelo de franquia, a limitada agilidade do negócio e o uso de acesso limitado a maior tecnologia, principalmente devido ao custo e ao conhecimento, dificultou o enfrentamento do Cisne Negro da Pandemia por COVID-19).

Résumé Ce projet visait à identifier les impacts des modèles commerciaux actuels (agilité commerciale) et des contrôles clés de productivité (KPI), les plus pertinents dans un sous- secteur des petits restaurants franchisés au Costa Rica (2020- 2023). Pour lequel une enquête qualitative est développée, avec des entretiens avec 31 gérants de petits restaurants qui utilisent des franchises nationales et étrangères, pour déterminer diverses sous-catégories d’analyse et établir des dénominateurs communs qui nous ont permis de surmonter la pandémie et la structuration d’une analyse d’inclusion et d’exclusion, pour prioriser les aspects critiques du succès, l’analyse des causes, conséquences et effets selon la méthode Root Cause pour proposer des améliorations durables, le principal constat étant : la rigidité du modèle de franchise, l’agilité commerciale limitée et l’utilisation d’un accès limité L’essor de la technologie, principalement en raison du coût et des connaissances, a rendu plus difficile la lutte contre le cygne noir de la pandémie por COVID-19).

Abstract This project aimed to identify the impacts of current business models (business agility) and key productivity controls (KPIs), most relevant in a subsector of small franchised restaurants in Costa Rica (2020-2023). For which a qualitative investigation is developed, with interviews with 31 small restaurant managers who use national and foreign franchises, to determine various subcategories of analysis and establish common denominators that allowed us to overcome the pandemic and the structuring of an analysis of inclusion and exclusion, to prioritize the critical aspects of success, the analysis of the causes, consequences and effects using the Root Cause method to propose long-lasting improvements, the main finding being: the rigidity of the franchise model, the limited business agility, and the use Limited access to greater technology, mainly due to cost and knowledge, made it more difficult to face the Black Swan of the Pandemic por COVID-19).

Resumen Este proyecto buscó identificar los impactos de los actuales modelos de negocio (agilidad empresarial) y los controles clave de productividad (KPIs) más relevantes en un subsector de restaurantes pequeños franquiciados en Costa Rica (2020- 2023), por lo que se realizó una investigación cualitativa con entrevistas a 31 gerentes de restaurantes pequeños, usuarios de franquicia nacional y extranjera, para determinar así diversas subcategorías de análisis y establecer con esto denominadores comunes que permitieron sobrepasar la pandemia y la estructuración de un análisis de inclusión y exclusión, asimismo, para jerarquizar los aspectos críticos de éxito, el análisis de las causas, consecuencias y efectos mediante el método de Causa-Raíz para proponer mejoras de larga duración. Este es el principal hallazgo: la rigidez del modelo de franquicia, la limitada agilidad empresarial y el uso limitado de mayor tecnología, principalmente por costo y conocimiento, que hicieron más difícil afrontar el “Cisne negro” de la Pandemia por COVID-19).

RESUMO O cisne-negro (Cygnus atratus, Latham, 1790) é uma ave mantida como ornamental em zoológicos. Por apresentar bicos longos, tende a ter prognóstico reservado em afecções musculoesqueléticas, como traumas de bico secundários e fraturas de ossos do crânio, com lesões irreversíveis. O objetivo deste relato é apresentar uma inovação clínica cirúrgica no reparo de fissura na gnatoteca de um cisne-negro, com a utilização de materiais não convencionais. Observou-se que um dos cisnes mantidos em uma área de exibição de um zoológico apresentava dificuldade para se alimentar, com perda de peso associada. Constatou-se perda tecidual e lesão lacerativa na região sublingual caudal de seu bico. A lesão foi corrigida por meio de sutura simples separada na região cranial do bico e posterior sutura em x com fio cirúrgico de aço, finalizando com aplicação de resina odontológica na região distal para realização de ponte de sustentação do bico. Após 12 dias, o animal conseguiu se alimentar novamente e se manteve perfeitamente adaptado à restauração, restabelecendo a função anatômica e fisiológica de seu bico.

ABSTRACT The black swan (Cygnus atratus, LATHAM, 1790) is a bird kept as an ornamental in zoos. Because of their long beaks they tend to have a reserved prognosis in musculoskeletal disorders such as beak trauma, secondary to skull bone fractures, presenting irreversible lesions. The aim of this report is present a clinical surgical innovation in the repair of a black swan’s gnathotheca fissure with the application of non-conventional materials used. It was observed that one of the swans kept in a zoo display area had difficulty feeding, with associated weight loss. It was observed tissue loss and a lacerative lesion in the caudal sublingual region of its beak. The lesion was corrected by a separate simple suture in the cranial region of the beak and with a x-clamping using steel surgical wire and the application of dental resin in the distal region to perform a sustentation bridge in the beak end-gap. After 12 days, the animal was able to feed again and remained perfectly adapted to the restoration, reestablishing the anatomical and physiological function of its beak.

RESUMO Estuda-se o impacto dos choques (fluxo de notícias) na volatilidade do mercado de ações nas diferentes regiões econômicas, nomeadamente os mercados de ações desenvolvidos, emergentes, de fronteira e BRIC durante a pandemia de COVID-19, um ‘Evento Cisne Negro’. Os retornos diários dos índices MSCI relevantes a partir de 30 de janeiro 2020 a 30 de outubro de 2020 são examinados usando a Curva de Impacto de Notícias do modelo EGARCH para obter uma perspectiva sobre o comportamento da volatilidade nos mercados de ações nos mercados de ações desenvolvidos, emergentes, de fronteira e BRIC. Evidências sugerem que os mercados desenvolvidos no Pacífico e na Europa, os BRICs, os mercados emergentes na Ásia, Europa, América Latina e os mercados de fronteira na Ásia foram associados à resposta de volatilidade assimétrica a choques. Além disso, os mercados desenvolvidos na América do Norte e os mercados fronteiriços na África foram associados a uma resposta de volatilidade simétrica. Observa-se que a resposta da volatilidade a choques em diferentes regiões não é uniforme e varia de acordo com o tamanho e sinal do choque. As descobertas do estudo fornecem insights para os investidores e acadêmicos na compreensão do comportamento da volatilidade globalmente durante um Evento Cisne Negro e fornecem informações críticas nas decisões globais de portfólio.

ABSTRACT We study the impact of shocks (news flow) on stock market volatility in different economic regions, namely the developed, emerging, frontier, and BRIC stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic, which was a‘Black Swan Event’. The daily returns of relevant MSCI indices from January 30, 2020 to October 30, 2020 are examined using the EGARCH model’s News Impact Curve to gain a perspective on the volatility behaviour in stock markets in the developed, emerging, frontier, and BRIC countries' stock markets. Evidence suggests that the developed markets in the Pacific and Europe, the BRIC countries, the emerging markets in Asia, Europe, and Latin America and the frontier markets in Asia were associated with asymmetric volatility response to shocks. Further, the developed markets in North America, and the frontier markets in Africa were associated with a symmetric volatility response. We observe that the volatility response to shocks in different regions is not uniform and varies according to the size and sign of the shock. The findings of the study provide insights to the investors and the academics in understanding the behaviour of volatility globally during a Black Swan Event, and provides critical inputs in global portfolio decisions.

The initial impact of the Covid-19 pandemic was felt through its life-threatening flu-like infections that caused the death of tens of thousands of people around the world, but an even more serious and enduring effect evolved from the lock-down strategies of governments to contain the infections. It caused mass disruptions in the social and economic life of nations and communities: people were isolated from friends, family and their recreation facilities, businesses went bankrupt, supply chains crumbled, and unemployment increased. The ultimate economic and social consequences ofthis policy-driven destruction of global systems are unfathomable. They confuse people, causing a feeling of hopelessness and incompetence in their search for solutions to the policy-initiated spillover problems they have to face. They are faced with an uncontrollable wave of change, the nature of which they can only try to understand, and which, it is hoped, will lead to a more desirable future outcome. When they reflected on the emergence of the pandemic, people suddenly became aware of a number of warnings issued since the 1990s about the likelihood of a Covid-19-type flu-like pandemic that would ravage the world. Why were these warnings ignored? Moreover, why did this pandemic become so utterly disruptive that people now struggle to find solutions to it? Three futurists at the international Centre for Post-normal Policy and Futures Studies describe the Covid-19 pandemic as a "perfect post-normal storm" in "post-normal times". This paper uses aspects of their research to explain the disruptive effect of the Covid-19 pandemic, applying them to the South African situation. The wave of disruptions that were caused by pandemic control is in essence complex systemic. It is very difficult to understand complex systemic change if traditional thinking and established systems of specialised knowledge (the so-called "cognitive homeland") are used. What is required is, first, to acknowledge a state of "invincible ignorance" in established thinking: an acknowledgement that established thinking must be replaced with new thinking. This requires an exploration of the "manufactured normalcy field", which refers to the thought systems that reaffirm normalcy despite major shifts in circumstances. Such an exploration covers, among other things, inquiries into the underpinnings of the "manufactured normalcy field", contrasting worldviews, paradigms, values, metaphors, and perspectives. The possible impact of "strange attractors" to guide a process of self-organisation in complex systemic change is also important to consider. Such "strange attractors" can emerge from information management, values management, heuristic learning designs which may usher in shifts in collective insights, paradigm shifts and new worldviews. South Africans are often reminded that Covid-19 created a new normal which requires them to adapt their outlook on life and their lifestyles. In fact, this country's pre-Covid-19 world was far from normal - since the 1990's South Africans have been living an unsettled life in an unsettled country. In other words, for thirty years they have been trapped in a state of limbo of post-normal times, the nature of which is described by the Centre for Post-normal Policy and Futures Studies as "an in-between period where the old ways are dying and new ways have yet to be discovered".

Die Covid-19-pandemie is aanvanklik gekenmerk deur lewensbedreigende griepagtige infeksies, maar later het grootskaalse beheergedrewe ontwrigting die toon begin aangee. Die inperkingsmaatreëls vir infeksiebeheer het mense van hul werkplek, hul vriende, hul familie en hul ontspanningsgeriewe afgesny. Voorsieningskettings het verbrokkel, sakeondernemings het ineengeval en werkloosheid het toegeneem. Die uiteindelike maatskaplike en ekonomiese gevolge hiervan is vandag onpeilbaar en dit bring groot verwarring mee: dit is 'n golf van verandering wat nie beheer kan word nie; dit kan hoogstens verstaan en gestuur word. Deur terugskouing en nadenke het mense skielik begin besef dat daar reeds dekades gelede waarskuwings gepubliseer is oor die moontlikheid van ontwrigtende globale griepagtige pandemies. Waarom is tóé nie daarop ag geslaan nie? 'n Tweede vraag is waarom het hierdie pandemie die bestaande wereldorde sodanig ontwrig dat mense sukkel om oplossings daarvoor te vind. Drie toekomsnavorsers by die internasionale Centre for Post-normal Policy and Futures Studies beskryf die Covid-19-pandemie as 'n "perfekte postnormale storm" en voeg daarby dat ons vandag in "postnormale tye" leef. Hierdie artikel gebruik enkele aspekte van hulle navorsing om die Covid-19-ontwrigting te verklaar en ook van toepassing te maak op die Suid-Afrikaanse situasie. Die voortstuwende ontwrigting wat Covid-19-beheermaatreëls veroorsaak het, is in wese kompleks sistemies. Dit is 'n groot uitdaging om kompleks sistemiese verandering te verstaan vanuit gevestigde gespesialiseerde kennis ("kognitiewe tuisland"). Dit vereis eers die erkenning van "onoorwinlike onkunde" in die gevestigde denkpatrone en dat ou denke daarom vervang moet word deur nuwe denke: 'n eksplorasie in die denklandskappe van wêreldbeskouings, paradigmas, waardes, mites, metafore en perspektiewe. Die rol van geleide selforganisasie deur die bestuur van sogenaamde "vreemde aanlokkers" (strange attractors) word bespreek. In 'n maatskaplik-ekonomiese omvorming kan onder meer inligtingsbestuur, waardebestuur en leerprosesse aanleiding gee tot nuwe kollektiewe insigte, paradigmaskuiwe en nuwe wêreldbeskouings, wat as "vreemde aanlokkers" vir geleide selforganisasie kan dien.

The present manuscript derives from earlier interrogations I published at Tourism and Society journal, University Externado of Colombia, Vol 20. This collection was originally entitled Today`s tourism: between the black Swan and the fictionality of the real. My previous work departed from the needs of digesting Nassim Taleb´s insights aimed at exploring the effects of terrorism in tourism. It is important not to lose the sight of the fact the aftermaths generated by recent terrorist attacks on leisure spots and tourist destinations are not conclusive, but it calls the attention to the needs of discussing terrorism beyond the misconceptions of economic-centered paradigm; oddly an academic wave that today predominates in tourism fields. On the introductory section, I hold the thesis that the impossibilities to predict terrorism comes from the surprise-factor, which is indicative of the terrorist mind. The second and third sections beg some questions revolving around the dichotomy between tourism and security. In fourth, the paper reveals the ontological complexity of the human beings before the danger, as well as the role of uncertainty in the idea of security. While the same point was addressed by S. Freud (per his view of Thanatos vs. Eros), there still is an open debate, which needs to be touched. Hence I infer that terrorism does not affect seriously tourism because consuming tends circulate for new geopolitical and aesthetic circuits, which paradoxically lay the foundations to new forms (more radicalized) of terrorism. This moves to the same direction of great writers like Jean Baudrillard, and Jacques Derrida among others who have contributed to the specialized literature. Equally important, though the discussion given around the fields of terrorism, tourism and security, there is no consensus or any all-encompassing model that helps understanding how the flock of white Swans adjust their destinations and travel habits in the global days.

Se parte de un ensayo reciente de la autora publicado en la revista Turismo y Sociedad de la Universidad Externado de Colombia, titulado Turismo Hoy: entre el cisne negro y la realidad de la ficción. El mismo parte de asimilar la metáfora de El cisne negro del economista Nassim Taleb, con el fenómeno del turismo para indagar sobre los efectos del terrorismo en los flujos de turistas. La observación de los recientes hechos de terrorismo atípicos y extremos en destinos turísticos no llega a ser concluyente, pero sí indicativa de la necesidad de ir transformando la visión del turismo más allá de los estudios de mercado inmersos en la sociedad capitalista del consumo. Se plantea la hipótesis simple de que frente al terrorismo posmoderno, la predicitiblidad de la afectación de los flujos de turistas pierde claridad. Se revisan los más recientes hechos terroristas que impactan a desprevenidos turistas; se plantean interrogantes sobre el desempeño de la relación turismo/seguridad y se abordan cuestionamientos sobre la complejidad del ser humano frente al peligro, acudiendo al mito griego de Eros y Thánatos. Finalmente, se intuye que el terrorismo representado en el cisne negro llega a perturbar (no atemorizar) a los flujos de turistas. Una realidad sobre la cual ya han escrito pensadores como Baudrillard o Derrida. Las bandadas de cisnes blancos se acomodan para ejercer su derecho a viajar, pero el cómo lo hacen puede cobrar muchas formas.

Resumen Las universidades, que en la segunda mitad del siglo anterior experimentaron un desarrollo sin precedentes en su número y cobertura, hoy se ven confrontadas a fenómenos sociales y tecnológicos inéditos ligados a la globalización, que las obligan a reinventarse radicalmente so pena de quedar relegadas en el competido mundo de la oferta educativa. Fenómenos como la deslocalización de sus usuarios, los avances en la neurociencias del aprendizaje, la puja por los maestros de excelencia, el desarrollo de los medios educativos virtuales y el mercado transnacional de la oferta educativa, entre otros, pondrán a prueba la capacidad que tiene la universidad para crear e integrar nuevas formas de desarrollar sus tareas esenciales de docencia, investigación y extensión. A partir de la teoría del Cisne Negro de Nassim Taleb, este artículo plantea algunos elementos de cultura pedagógica e institucional que podrían ayudar a las universidades a responder exitosamente a las nuevas condiciones en las que tendrán que operar las universidades en un mundo globalizado.

Resumo As universidades, que na segunda metade do século anterior experimentaram um desenvolvimento sem precedentes em seu número e cobertura, hoje se veem confrontadas a fenómenos sociais e tecnológicos inéditos unidos à globalização, que as obrigam a reinventar-se radicalmente sob pena de ficar relegadas no competido mundo da oferta educativa. Fenómenos como a deslocalização de seus usuários, os avanços nas neurociências da aprendizagem, o lance pelos maestros de excelência, o desenvolvimento dos meios educativos virtuais e o mercado multinacional da oferta educativa, entre outros, porão a prova à capacidade que tem a universidade para criar e integrar novas formas de desenvolver suas tarefas essenciais de docência, pesquisa e extensão. A partir da teoria do Cisne Negro de Nassim Taleb, este artigo propõe alguns elementos de cultura pedagógica e institucional que poderiam ajudar às universidades a responder com sucesso às novas condições nas que terão que operar as universidades num mundo globalizado.

Abstract The universities, having gone through an unprecedented development in terms of number and coverage in the second half of the past century, are now confronted with new social and technological phenomena linked to globalization, which obliges them to radically reinvent themselves under penalty of being relegated in the competitive world of supply of education. Phenomena such as relocation of their users, advances in learning neurosciences, competition in terms of teacher quality, educational and virtual media development, and transnational market of educational supply, among others, will test the university's capacity to create and integrate new ways to develop its essential duties of teaching, researching and continuing education. On the basis of the Black swan theory developed by Nassim Taleb, this article presents some cultural and institutional pedagogy elements that might help universities to respond to the new conditions under which they will have to operate in a globalized world.

Résumé Les universités, ayant expérimenté un développement sans précédent en matière de quantité et de couverture, sont aujourd'hui confrontées à des phénomènes sociaux et technologiques inédits liés à la globalisation les obligeant radicalement à se réinventer sous peine d'etre reléguées dans le monde concurrentiel de l'offre éducative. Des phénomènes comme la délocalisation de leurs utilisateurs, les progrès dans le domaine des neurosciences de l'apprentissage, la compétition en termes de qualité des professeurs, le développement des médias éducatifs et virtuels, et le marché transnational de l'offre éducative, entre autres, mettront à l'épreuve la capacité de l'Université de créer et d'intégrer de nouvelles manières de développer les fonctions essentielles d'enseignement, de recherche et de formation continue. Sur la base de la théorie du cygne noir développée par Nassim Taleb, cet article propose certains éléments de culture pédagogique et institutionnelle qui pourraient aider les universités à répondre avec succès aux nouvelles conditions dans lesquelles elles devront opérer dans un monde globalisé.

Resumen La aprehensión del doble con una sensación de extrañeza y una angustia incontrolable, se produce cuando la imago de la madre -en tanto objeto malo internalizado- retorna desde lo real al espacio simbólico, donde otro semejante con identidad propia, aparece en escena y es tan similar que actúa mostrando el envés de la intimidad del sujeto, haciendo manifiestos sus rasgos reprimidos y acentuando sus positivos como si tuviera mayores posibilidades de éxito en ser y alcanzar los objetivos del sujeto. Los sentimientos de persecución que la protagonista experimenta al desencadenarse su psicosis, patentizan el estadio del espejo como la relación inaugural erótica en la que el individuo queda fijado bajo la impronta de una imagen que lo enajena de sí mismo y en la que el yo se cristaliza en la tensión conflictual que descubre su estructura y su constitución paranoica, donde se confunden los dos momentos en los que el sujeto se niega a sí mismo y en el que hace cargos al otro; negaciones fundamentales que Freud puso en valor como las tres formas de delirios paranoicos: de Celos, de Erotomanía y de Interpretación.

Resumo Apreensão do dobre com uma sensação de estranheza e ansiedade incontrolável ocorre quando a imago da mãe, enquanto-objeto mau internalizado-retorna do real para o espaço simbólico onde outro semelhante com a sua própria identidade, aparece tornando manifesto suas características reprimidas e acentuando as traças positivas como tendo uma melhor chance de ser bem sucedido e alcançar os objetivos do sujeito. Os sentimentos de perseguição que experiência a protagonista quando sua psicose desencadeiase, manifestar claramente o estágio do espelho como o relacionamento inaugural erótico em que o indivíduo é fixado sob o selo de uma imagem que o afasta de si mesmo e que foi cristalizado a tensão conflituosa que encontra a sua estrutura e constituição paranoica, onde os dois momentos são confusos em que o sujeito nega a si mesmo e no qual ele cobra o outro, ele faz acusações o outro; negações fundamentais que Freud coloca em valor como as três formas de delírios paranoicos: ciúme, Erotomania e interpretação.

Abstract Apprehension ofthe doublewith asense of strangenessand uncontrollable anxiety, occurs when the imago ofthe mother-internalized as bad object-returns from the realtothesymbolicspacewhereothersimilarwith itsown identity, appearsand isso similarthat acts showing the underside ofthe privacy ofthe subject, making manifest that He repressed his features and accentuating the positive as having a better chance of success in being and achieve the objectives ofthe subject. Feelings of persecution that the protagonist experienced when triggered his psychosis, clearly manifest the mirror stage as erotic inaugural relationship in which the individual is fixed underthe printing ofan image which alienates himfrom himself and which was crystallized the conflictual tension that finds its structure and paranoiac constitution, where the two moments are confused in which the subject denies himself and in which he makes charges the other; fundamental negations that Freud put in value as the three forms of paranoid deliriums: jealousy, erotomania and Interpretation.

Rare events, known as 'Black Swans', have determined the course of history. One of these was the global economic crisis of 2008. Such events highlight fields like strategic management and their shortcomings in helping to prepare organisations. The Strategic Framework for Improbable Circumstances was designed to add to the strategic management process by improving organisational preparation for these rare events. The framework was validated through interviews with experts who showed the need for such a framework, and who confirmed that it is a good first step for organisations to take towards addressing these Black Swan events.

Rare gebeurtenisse, ook bekend as 'Swart Swane', het die verloop van die verlede bepaal. Een van hierdie gebeurtenisse was die wêreldwye ekonomiese krisis van 2008. Hierdie Swart Swane het die fokus geplaas op strategiese bestuur, en op die tekortkominge van hierdie studieveld om besighede beter voor te berei om Swart Swane beter te hanteer. Die Strategiese Raamwerk vir Onwaarskynlike Omstandighede is ontwikkel as 'n byvoeging tot die strategiese bestuursproses deur die organisasie se voorbereiding vir hierdie tipe gebeurtenisse te verbeter. Die validasie van die raamwerk was gedoen deur onderhoude met deskundiges wat bewys het dat so raamwerk benodig word, en uitgewys het dat dit 'n goeie eerste stap was vir besighede om Swart Swane te trotseer.

In The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb considers the importance in human affairs of "Black Swan" events of low probability but high impact. In the process he argues, in a confrontational manner, that historians' causal narratives are mainly invalid on a number of grounds but especially because the unpredictability of Black Swan (or other) events implies that subsequent narratives connecting events are merely "good-sounding stories". This article analyses Taleb's arguments against historical explanation and concludes that they are largely unsatisfactory. It questions Taleb's link between explanation and prediction in the context of history, arguing that Taleb's own concept of randomness as insufficient information implies greater knowledge after an event. However Taleb offers insights which can be of value to historians, and a more irenical relationship would be desirable.

In The Black Swan, beskou Nassim Nicholas Taleb die belangrikheid in menslike aangeleenthede van "Black Swan"-episodes as van geringe moontlikheid maar sterk impak. In die proses redeneer hy, op 'n konfronterende wyse, dat geskiedskrywers se oorsaaklike vertellings hoofsaaklik ongeldig is, op 'n hele aantal gronde, maar veral omdat die onvoorspelbaarheid van Black Swan- (of ander) episodes impliseer dat daaropvolgende vertellings wat episodes aan mekaar koppel, bloot "good-sounding stories" is. Hierdie artikel ontleed Taleb se redenasies teen historiese verklaring en kom tot die slotsom dat hulle grootliks onbevredigend is. Dit bevraagteken Taleb se verband tussen verduideliking en voorspelling in die eks van geskiedenis, deurdat hy redeneer dat Taleb se eie konsep van ewekansigheid as synde ontoereikende inligting, meer kennis na 'n episode impliseer. Taleb bied egter insigte wat waardevol kan wees vir historici, en 'n meer versoenende verhouding sou wensliker gewees het.

Neste artigo, procuramos analisar uma possível cisão na ética contemporânea servindo-nos do modelo das forças conflituosas do apolíneo e do dionisíaco conforme propostas por Nietzsche. Analisamos e destacamos as orientações éticas relacionadas ao consumo e aos conflitos subjetivos a elas relacionados. Para realizar tal estudo, usamos como ponto de partida uma análise do filme Cisne Negro (2010), de Darren Aronofsky, que traz à tona questões centrais para a análise que nos propomos realizar, complementando-o, ainda, com outras referências literárias e publicitárias.

In this article we analyzed a possible division in contemporary ethic using the model of the conflicting forces of apollonian and Dionysian, as proposed by Nietzsche. We analyze and emphasize the ethical guidelines related to consumption and the subjective conflicts related to them. To develop this study our starting point was an analysis of the movie Black Swan (2010), by Darren Aronofsky, which brings up central questions to the analysis that we propose to accomplish. To complement our analysis we also use other references from literature and advertising.

En este artículo se analiza una posible división en la ética contemporánea utilizando el modelo de las fuerzas contradictorias de apolíneo y dionisíaco, según lo propuesto por Nietzsche. Analizamos las directrices éticas relacionadas con el consumo y los conflictos subjetivos relacionados con las mismas. Para desarrollar este estudio nuestro punto de partida fue un análisis de la película Cisne Negro (2010), de Darren Aronofsky, que nos lleva a cuestiones centrales para el análisis. Para complementar nuestro análisis también utilizamos otras referencias de la literatura y la publicidad.

The economic meltdown and 9/11 in many respects were watershed events; they triggered unexpected effects that collectively have played a fundamental role in reshaping an emergent global landscape. It is one characterised by unprecedented technological innovation, socio-political upheaval, contextual uncertainty and as often termed to be "Black Swan" events that are extremely disruptive and have a significant impact on communities and institutions. The convergent emergent systemic effects and the uncertainty and unpredictability it engendered have exposed fundamental difficulties associated with traditional management practices based on ordered systems. The research study methodology underpinning this paper is that of a multidisciplinary literature review directed at exploring management perspectives that are deemed to be more effective for dealing with a context of innovative and discontinuous change. A key finding emerging from the research is the need to make use of the appropriate methodology for managing coexisting ordered and complex systems. Further found is the need for a culture of resiliency to deal with the transition from chaos to complex and ordered states.

Poucas descobertas tiveram um impacto tão grande e tamanha relevância para a Medicina clínica como a medição não-invasiva da pressão arterial diastólica. Vários fisiologistas e clínicos talentosos estavam, sem sucesso, em busca de um método não-invasivo para determinar a pressão diastólica. No entanto, a quantificação da pressão arterial diastólica não foi conseguida por qualquer um desses pesquisadores clínicos ou fisiológicos, mas por uma figura improvável e inesperada: Nikolai Sergeevich Korotkoff (1874-1920), um jovem cirurgião do exército russo, trabalhando em condições precárias sob as dificuldades de diversas guerras. É fácil descartar o feito de Korotkoff como uma descoberta fortuita semelhante à de Alexander Fleming na descoberta da penicilina. No entanto, a recente teoria do cisne negro de Nassim N. Taleb pode servir para ilustrar sua descoberta de uma nova e, talvez, surpreendente, forma.

Very few discoveries have had such a large impact on and relevance to clinical medicine as the noninvasive measurement of the diastolic blood pressure. A number of gifted physiologists and clinicians were ineffectively in search of a noninvasive method to determine the diastolic pressure. Nonetheless, the quantification of the diastolic BP was not achieved by any of these clinical or physiological researchers, but by an unlikely and unexpected figure: Nikolai Sergeevich Korotkoff (1874-1920), a young Russian army surgeon, working under precarious conditions in the hardship of diverse wars. It is easy to dismiss the achievement of Korotkoff as a serendipitous discovery, similar to that of Alexander Fleming in the discovery of penicillin. However, Nassim N. Taleb's recent black swan theory may serve to illustrate his discovery in a new and, perhaps, surprising way.

Introducción: Diversas formas de expresión artística, como la literatura y el cine, constituyen fuentes inagotables para el estudio de la enfermedad mental. La aplicación de modelos psico-dinámicos puede contribuir al entendimiento del espectro entre los trastornos de personalidad y la psicosis, enriqueciendo su abordaje fenomenológico en la práctica clínica psiquiátrica. Objetivo: Examinar, desde puntos de vista psicodinámicos, al personaje central de la película estadounidense Black Swan, así como la naturaleza de sus síntomas psicóticos. Métodos: Revisión de fuentes y corrientes teóricas relevantes. Resultados y conclusiones: El análisis resalta la utilidad de considerar un modelo dimensional psicodinámicamente orientado en el entendimiento de las llamadas incursiones psicóticas; así como la aplicabilidad de teorías psicoanalíticas de la psicosis a la práctica psiquiátrica general, buscando un abordaje clínico más fexible, y, quizá, más cercano a la experiencia subjetiva del paciente.

Introduction: Different forms of artistic expression, such as literature and cinema, constitute an inexhaustible source for the study of mental illness. The use of psychodynamic models may contribute to a better understanding of the spectrum between personality disorders and the psychosis spectrum, thus enriching the phenomenological approach in the psychiatric clinical practice. Objective: To examine from psychodynamic standpoints the main character of the American film Black Swan, and the nature of her psychotic symptoms. Methods: Reviewing of sources and relevant theoretical currents. Results and conclusions: Analysis shows the usefulness of a psychodynamically- oriented dimensional model for understanding the so-called psychotic breaks as well as the applicability of psychoanalytic psychosis theories in general psychiatric practice, as they may provide a more fexible clinical approach, closer to the patient's subjective experience.

The idea of the 'Black Swan' comes from the fact that prior to the discovery of Australia, it was assumed by the medieval uropeans that are all swans were white, because no European at the time had ever seen a black swan, even though these did exist. The sight of one black swan in Australia by the European explorers invalidated millennia of belief that all swans were white. However, in the context of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a brilliant author of the book by the same name, a Black Swan is a metaphor referring to any event that is rare, has an extreme impact, and is explainable and predictable, but only in hindsight. Taleb points out to us how we confidently predict the future based upon our past experiences when in reality we have no real idea what the future will bring. While we know that Black Swans are hugely disruptive and can radically alter the course of our future, we still allow them to enter our waters and disrupt our cosy plans with unexpected and devastating impact. Even though we can see how these black fowls have affected us and the majority of those living in our surroundings, whether positively or negatively, we continue to be blinded to their existence. Black Swans occur when there is a disjoint between what we know and what we think we know. This disjoint is fuelled by facets of our human psychology that make us overconfident in our pronouncement about the future. Despite the fact that we cannot forecast the future accurately in a world of Black Swans, this paper tries to point the reader to the fact that if we endeavour to keep our minds and eyes wide open, we should be able to identify the generators of Black Swans, and learn to mitigate their impact. We should be able to swim with the Black Swan