Abstract Negative impacts of climate change are expected in the production of Coffea arabica L. one of the most commercialized tropical agroproducts in the world. However, most studies work with global circulation models, being of little use in making decisions on the scale of farm management. Given this, the objective of this study was to identify the suitability for the cultivation of C. arabica in the face of climate change and how tree cover mitigates the impacts of climate change in an agroforestry plot. The indices of climatic extremes were calculated (1961 to 2016 for Coatepec; 1985 to 2016 for Briones) and a trend analysis was carried out (Mann-Kendall). The temperature inside a plot, and on an open site, was monitored for two years (2017-2019). This was related to the climatic requirements of C. Arabica. Trends of increase (p < 0.05) of the minimum and minimum extreme annual temperatures were identified in the two stations near the plot (0.24 and 0.69 °C·decade-1 in Coatepec and 0.46 and 0.79 °C·decade-1 in Briones). The maximum temperature did not present significant increases, reducing the thermal amplitude. Both annual and seasonal precipitation shows trends of increase in intensity. All these conditions are still suitable for the cultivation of C. arabica. At the plot scale, the importance of tree cover is demonstrated, which in this agroforestry system allows to reduce the maximum temperature by 1.9 °C compared to an open site. Tree cover has also made it possible to mitigate extreme events.

Resumen Se prevén impactos negativos del cambio climático en la producción de Coffea arabica L. uno de los agroproductos tropicales más comercializados en el mundo. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los estudios trabajan con modelos de circulación global, siendo poco útiles en la toma de decisiones a escala de manejo de una finca. Ante ello, el objetivo de este estudio fue identificar la aptitud para el cultivo de C. arabica ante el cambio climático y cómo la cobertura arbórea mitiga los impactos del cambio climático en una parcela agroforestal. Se calcularon los índices de extremos climáticos (1961 a 2016 para Coatepec; 1985 a 2016 para Briones) y se realizó un análisis de tendencias (Mann-Kendall). Se monitoreó la temperatura en el interior de una parcela, y en un sitio abierto, durante dos años (2017-2019). Esto se relacionó con los requerimientos climáticos de C. arabica. Se identificaron tendencias de incremento (p<0,05) de las temperaturas mínima y mínima extrema anual en las dos estaciones cercanas a la parcela (0,24 y 0,69 °C·década-1 en Coatepec y 0,46 y 0,79 °C·década-1 en Briones). La temperatura máxima no presentó incrementos significativos, reduciendo la amplitud térmica. Tanto la precipitación anual y estacional muestran tendencias de incremento en intensidad. Todas estas condiciones siguen siendo aptas para el cultivo de C. arabica. A escala de parcela, se demuestra la importancia de la cobertura arbórea, que en este sistema agroforestal permite reducir la temperatura máxima 1,9 °C en comparación con un sitio abierto. Asimismo, la cobertura arbórea ha permitido mitigar eventos extremos.

ABSTRACT. Hemileia vastatrix, the fungus that causes the most devastating disease of Coffea arabica L. (coffee rust), could increase its altitude distribution due to climate change, causing adverse effects. Therefore, realized a prospecting of the effect of climate change on the incidence of H. vastatrix. This study was conducted out taking data from the coffee growing area of Coatepec, Veracruz, Mexico. The trends of maximum, minimum temperature and climatic extremes indexes (1961-2010) proposed by the Team of Experts on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were analyzed. Trends were related to conditions suitable for the proliferation of Hemileia vastatrix. The area has experienced an increase in the maximum temperature (0.2 °C decade-1) and minimum (0.3 °C decade-1). Annual rainfall and daily intensity have increased, increasing the susceptibility to incidence and severity from coffee rust and other fungal diseases.

RESUMEN. Hemileia vastatrix, hongo causante de la enfermedad más devastadora de Coffea arabica L. (roya del café), podría incrementar su distribución altitudinal debido al cambio climático, causando efectos adversos. Por ello, el objetivo fue se realizar una prospección del efecto del cambio climático en la incidencia de H. vastatrix. La investigación se realizó tomando datos de la zona cafetalera de Coatepec, Veracruz, México. Se analizaron las tendencias de temperatura máxima, mínima e índices de extremos climáticos de 1961 al 2010, propuestos por el Equipo de Expertos en Detección e Índices de Cambio Climático (ETCCDI). Las tendencias se relacionaron con las condiciones para la proliferación de H. vastatrix. La zona ha experimentado un aumento de temperatura máxima (0.2 °C década-1) y mínima (0.3 °C década-1); la precipitación y su intensidad diaria se han incrementado, aumentando la susceptibilidad a la incidencia y severidad de la roya del café y de otras enfermedades fúngicas.

INTRODUCTION Climate variability, the primary expression of climate change, is one of the most important environmental problems affecting human health, particularly vector-borne diseases. Despite research efforts worldwide, there are few studies addressing the use of information on climate variability for prevention and early warning of vector-borne infectious diseases. OBJECTIVES Show the utility of climate information for vector surveillance by developing spatial models using an entomological indicator and information on predicted climate variability in Cuba to provide early warning of danger of increased risk of dengue transmission. METHODS An ecological study was carried out using retrospective and prospective analyses of time series combined with spatial statistics. Several entomological and climatic indicators were considered using complex Bultó indices -1 and -2. Moran’s I spatial autocorrelation coefficient specified for a matrix of neighbors with a radius of 20 km, was used to identify the spatial structure. Spatial structure simulation was based on simultaneous autoregressive and conditional autore-gressive models; agreement between predicted and observed values for number of Aedes aegypti foci was determined by the concordance index Di and skill factor Bi. RESULTS Spatial and temporal distributions of populations of Aedes aegypti were obtained. Models for describing, simulating and predicting spatial patterns of Aedes aegypti populations associated with climate variability patterns were put forward. The ranges of climate variability affecting Aedes aegypti populations were identified. Forecast maps were generated for the municipal level. CONCLUSIONS Using the Bultó indices of climate variability, it is possible to construct spatial models for predicting increased Aedes aegypti populations in Cuba. At 20 × 20 km resolution, the models are able to provide warning of potential changes in vector populations in rainy and dry seasons and by month, thus demonstrating the usefulness of climate information for epidemiological surveillance.

INTRODUCTION Death from acute myocardial infarction is due to many factors; influences on risk to the individual include habits, lifestyle and behavior, as well as weather, climate and other environmental components. Changing climate patterns make it especially important to understand how climatic variability may influence acute myocardial infarction mortality. OBJECTIVES Describe the relationship between climate variability and acute myocardial infarction mortality during the period 2001–2012 in Havana. METHODS An ecological time-series study was conducted. The universe comprised 23,744 deaths from acute myocardial infarction (ICD-10: I21–I22) in Havana residents from 2001 to 2012. Climate variability and seasonal anomalies were described using the Bultó-1 bioclimatic index (comprising variables of temperature, humidity, precipitation, and atmospheric pressure), along with series analysis to determine different seasonal-to-interannual climate variation signals. The role played by climate variables in acute myocardial infarction mortality was determined using factor analysis. The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt statistical tests were used for trend analysis with a significance level of 5%. RESULTS The strong association between climate variability conditions described using the Bultó-1 bioclimatic index and acute myocardial infarctions accounts for the marked seasonal pattern in AMI mortality. The highest mortality rate occurred during the dry season, i.e., the winter months in Cuba (November–April), with peak numbers in January, December and March. The lowest mortality coincided with the rainy season, i.e., the summer months (May–October). A downward trend in total number of deaths can be seen starting with the change point in April 2009. CONCLUSIONS Climate variability is inversely associated with an increase in acute myocardial infarction mortality as is shown by the Bultó-1 index. This inverse relationship accounts for acute myocardial infarction mortality’s seasonal pattern.

Entre as ervas aromáticas, o manjericão possui importância econômica no Brasil, sendo seu consumo tanto in natura quanto para processamento industrial, na obtenção de óleo essencial. Porém, as informações quanto à qualidade aromática dessas plantas em função das técnicas de cultivo são escassas. Avaliou-se a produtividade de duas espécies de manjericão, de folha estreita (Ocimum minimum L.) e de folha larga (Ocimum basilicum L.) em ambiente protegido. Os sistemas de cultivo utilizados foram: 1) hidroponia (floating); 2) substrato preparado e 3) substrato comercial. As amostragens foram realizadas durante o período de florescimento das plantas. O experimento foi realizado em Campinas (SP), em casa de vegetação com controle de umidade e iluminação naturais, utilizando-se o delineamento inteiramente casualizado, com três repetições. Foram avaliados também o rendimento e composição química dos óleos essenciais das plantas. O sistema hidropônico apresentou a maior produtividade de massa verde, aproximadamente 44% superior aos outros dois tipos de cultivo, para ambas as espécies estudadas. Não houve diferença significativa entre as formas de cultivo quanto ao rendimento e composição química dos óleos essenciais dentro da mesma espécie. Quanto à produção de óleo essencial, as plantas de manjericão de folha estreita apresentaram rendimento aproximadamente 10% mais elevado em relação às de folha larga, além de diferenças significativas na composição dos óleos essenciais entre as espécies.

Among the aromatical herbs, basil is of great economic importance in Brazil. This species is used as fresh herb and also for essential oil extraction. To evaluate the productivity of basil in protected environment, two species, Ocimum minimum L. (narrow leaf basil) and Ocimum basilicum L. (wide leaf basil) were cultivated under greenhouse conditions, using a hydroponic system and two types of substrata. The experiment was carried out in a completely randomized design with three repetitions. Samples were obtained during the flowering period. The yield and the chemical composition of the essential oils were evaluated. The highest yield of green mass from the two species, was obtained in the hydroponic system, with higher productivity (aprox. 44%) than the plants cultivated in prepared commercial substratum. Plants of Ocimum minimum L. produced more essential oil (aprox. 10%) than plants of Ocimum basilicum L. Significant differences were found in the chemical composition of essential oil between species. No differences were observed in the chemical composition of essential oil, comparing the three cultivation systems.