ABSTRACT The present study aimed to characterize the dynamics of NDVI and meteorological conditions, relating both to the annual dynamics of biomass accumulation in natural pastures of the Pampa biome as a way of subsidizing growth modeling. Forage accumulation rate data from a long-term experiment, NDVI data from the MODIS images, and meteorological data measured at the surface were used. We verify that the agrometeorological element associated to the accumulation of forage in the natural grasslands is different according to the season, which is typical of the subtropical climate. Winter is the critical season for livestock production due to the lower forage accumulation rate and lower values of NDVI, conditioned by the decrease of solar radiation and air temperature. In the summer, the limiting factor to forage accumulation is the hydric condition. It was also verified that the variability in the growth of grasslands can be associated with the ENSO phenomenon, being the El Niño favorable and the La Niña unfavorable, especially in the spring-summer period. Considering the verified associations, spectral indices combined with agrometeorological elements are recommended to the adjustment of models of forage accumulation in the Pampa biome natural grasslands.

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a redução do vigor vegetativo da cobertura vegetal do Pampa do Brasil e do Uruguai, por meio da identificação de tendências negativas em séries temporais de imagens. Utilizaram-se séries temporais de imagens de NDVI/EVI do sensor Modis, de 2000 a 2011; imagens de índices de umidade do solo do "climate forecast system reanalysis"; e dados de precipitação pluvial de estações meteorológicas. O estudo quantificou tendências lineares e não lineares nas séries de NDVI e EVI, em áreas de campos. Na tendência monotônica de Mann-Kendall, a 5% de probabilidade, 81,9% da área total estudada foi significativa com o NDVI, e 74,8%, com o EVI; no entanto, o EVI apresentou contraste superior na estimativa dos parâmetros. Os resultados mostraram maior sinal negativo a oeste, com valores médios de R²>0,15, r<-0,3 e τ <-0,15 na tendência dos índices de vegetação, e tendência decrescente para NDVI, EVI e precipitação pluvial, com menores valores médios de umidade do solo. A tendência negativa dos índices de vegetação, relacionada à combinação da ocorrência de deficit hídrico em solos rasos com o sobrepastoreio, indica alterações no padrão de cobertura vegetal do Pampa, com redução do vigor vegetativo.

The objective of this work was to evaluate the reduction in the vegetative vigor of Pampa vegetation cover in Brazil and Uruguay, by identifying negative trends in images time series. The following were used: time series of NDVI/EVI images from the Modis sensor, from 2000 to 2011; images from soil moisture indices from the climate forecast system reanalysis; and precipitation data from meteorological stations. The study quantified linear and nonlinear trends in the NDVI and EVI series in grassland areas. With the Mann-Kendall monotonic trend, at 5% probability, 81.9% of the total area studied was significant with NDVI, and 74.8% with EVI; however, EVI showed superior contrast in the estimation of parameters. The results showed: highest negative signal in the west, with average values of R²>0.15, r<-0.3, and τ <-0.15 in the tendency of the vegetation indices; and decreasing tendency for NDVI, EVI, and rainfall, with lower mean soil moisture values. The negative trend of the vegetation indices, related to the combination of drought occurrence in surface soils with excessive grazing, indicates changes in the pattern of Pampa vegetation cover, with reduction in vegetative vigor.