RESUMO: Apesar da redução na taxa de desmatamento nos últimos anos, o impacto do aquecimento global por si só pode causar alterações na cobertura vegetal. O Objetivo deste trabalho foi investigar as possíveis alterações no maior bioma brasileiro, a Floresta Amazônica, levando em consideração diferentes cenários de mudanças climáticas. Os modelos de vegetação dinâmica permitem representar as mudanças na distribuição de vegetação bem como nos processos biogeoquímicos diante de mudanças no clima. Na primeira parte do trabalho, o modelo de vegetação dinâmica Inland foi forçado com condições iniciais e de contorno geradas a partir de dados de reanálise (CFSR) e pela regionalização da simulação histórica de um modelo global do sistema terrestre (HadGEM2-ES) com o modelo Eta. Estas simulações foram validadas utilizando os dados da torre de Santarém-K83. Na segunda parte, avaliou-se o impacto de uma futura mudança climática sobre o bioma floresta através das projeções do modelo Inland forçado com um modelo regional climático. As projeções mostram que algumas áreas de floresta tropical na Amazônia são substituídas por tipo de floresta decídua e pastagem natural no cenário RCP4.5 e apenas por pastagem natural no cenário RCP8.5 no final do século XXI. No Estado do Amazonas, o modelo indica uma redução de cerca de 9% da área de floresta tropical no cenário RCP4.5 e uma redução maior no cenário RCP8.5 de cerca de 50%. Embora o aumento da concentração de CO2 atmosférico possa favorecer o crescimento das árvores, as projeções do modelo Eta-HadGEM2-ES mostram aumento da temperatura e redução da precipitação na região Amazônica, levando a degradação da floresta nestas simulações.

ABSTRACT: Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarém tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.

ABSTRACT: Soil is a natural resource that has been affected by human pressures beyond its renewal capacity. For this reason, large agricultural areas that were productive have been abandoned due to soil degradation, mainly caused by the erosion process. The objective of this study was to apply the Universal Soil Loss Equation to generate more recent estimates of soil loss rates for the state of São Paulo using a database with information from medium resolution (30 m). The results showed that many areas of the state have high (critical) levels of soil degradation due to the predominance of consolidated human activities, especially in growing sugarcane and pasture use. The average estimated rate of soil loss is 30 Mg ha-1 yr-1 and 59 % of the area of the state (except for water bodies and urban areas) had estimated rates above 12 Mg ha-1 yr-1, considered as the average tolerance limit in the literature. The average rates of soil loss in areas with annual agricultural crops, semi-perennial agricultural crops (sugarcane), and permanent agricultural crops were 118, 78, and 38 Mg ha-1 yr-1 respectively. The state of São Paulo requires attention to conservation of soil resources, since most soils led to estimates beyond the tolerance limit.

ABSTRACT: The soil is a key component of the Earth System, and is currently under high pressure, due to the increasing global demands for food, energy and fiber. Moreover, the management of agricultural systems is often inadequate and ignores the agricultural suitability of lands, and particularly the vulnerability of soils. This paper demonstrates the application of the concept of the Soil Lifetime Index (SLtI) for the entire state of São Paulo, at a spatial resolution of 30 m. The SLtI methodology represents a tolerance criterion and a diagnostic tool to assess the level of soil degradation by water erosion, based on estimated soil loss rates and on an average soil renewal rate. Two approaches were applied to determine: i) the remaining time (years) until the solum (horizons A + B) is removed by water erosion to a critical depth of 1.0 m (original approach); ii) the remaining time (years) until the top 0.25 m of the nutrient-rich soil surface is removed by water erosion (new approach). Several areas in the state have reached a very critical soil depletion level, due to the predominance of consolidated agricultural activities, mainly of sugarcane and livestock production (as in the mesoregions of Ribeirão Preto, Bauru, Assis, Itapetininga and Araraquara). Only 35 % of the study area is in conserved state; 65 % of the study area is in the state of resource degradation, requiring intervention to diminish soil loss rates - and of this total, SLtI is zero in 1 and 0.25 % of the study area, respectively, for the original (critical depth of 1 m) and the new approach (0.25 m). It was estimated that at the current soil loss rates, within 100 years, 20,000 km2 of the total area of the state of São Paulo (248,209 km2) will have reached the critical depth of 1.0 m, and the top 0.25 m of the soil surface from an area of approximately 76,000 km2 will have been completely removed if the current pace of resource exploitation is maintained.

Elaborou-se um novo mapa global de vegetação natural naresolução horizontal de 1 grau para uso em modelos climáticos de circulação geral. Utilizou-se a classificação de vegetação de Dorman e Sellers com a inclusão de um novo bioma: floresta tropical estacional, que compreende as florestas tropicais decíduas e semidecíduas. Para este novo tipo de bioma, apresentaram-se os valores de parâmetros biogeofísicos domodelo de processos à superfície SSiB. Sob essa nova classificação de vegetação, obteve-se um mapa de consenso entre dois mapas globais de vegetação natural amplamente utilizados em estudos climáticos. Mostrou-se que esses dois mapas alocam biomas diferentes em cerca de 1/3 dos pontos de grade continentais. Para obter um novo mapa global de vegetação natural, as áreas de não-consenso foram preenchidas utilizando-se um conjunto de mais de 100 mapas regionais disponíveis na Internet. Para minimizar os riscos de se usar informação de baixa qualidade, os mapas regionais foram obtidos de sítios confiáveis da Internet, e o procedimento de preenchimento baseou-se no consenso entre vários mapas regionais obtidos de fontes independentes. Elaborou-se o novo mapa de modo a reproduzir em grande escala a distribuição dos principais tipos de vegetação (uma vez que se pauta em dois mapas globais de vegetação natural confiáveis) e também detalhes regionais (uma vez que se baseia em consenso de mapas regionais) com precisão.

We developed a new world natural vegetation map at 1 degree horizontal resolution for use in global climate models. We used the Dorman and Sellers vegetation classification with inclusion of a new biome: tropical seasonal forest, which refers to both deciduous and semi-deciduous tropical forests. SSiB biogeophysical parameters values for this new biome type are presented. Under this new vegetation classification we obtained a consensus map between two global natural vegetation maps widely used in climate studies. We found that these two maps assign different biomes in ca. 1/3 of the continental grid points. To obtain a new global natural vegetation map, non-consensus areas were filled according to regional consensus based on more than 100 regional maps available on the internet. To minimize the risk of using poor quality information, the regional maps were obtained from reliable internet sources, and the filling procedure was based on the consensus among several regional maps obtained from independent sources. The new map was designed to reproduce accurately both the large-scale distribution of the main vegetation types (as it builds on two reliable global natural vegetation maps) and the regional details (as it is based on the consensus of regional maps).