Resumo Objetivo: Determinar a estratégia ótima de investimento em equilíbrio de Nash para o mercado imobiliário residencial do Rio de Janeiro, considerando a incerteza na demanda por imóveis e o número de concorrentes ativos no mercado. Metodologia: Foi desenvolvido um modelo de jogos de opções reais. Os parâmetros do modelo foram estimados com ferramentas econométricas a partir de dados reais do mercado imobiliário carioca. Resultados: Os resultados quantitativos obtidos são intuitivos no sentido de que, quanto maior a quantidade de concorrentes, menor o nível de demanda exigido para o investimento em novas unidades, e quanto maior a volatilidade da demanda, maior o nível de demanda para ser ótimo o investimento. Contribuições: Este trabalho modificou a metodologia de Grenadier (2002), fornecendo uma especificação mais adequada e robusta da incerteza para a função de demanda, permitindo interpretações econômicas mais intuitivas.

Abstract Purpose: To determine the optimal investment strategy in Nash equilibrium for the residential real estate market of Rio de Janeiro, considering the uncertainty in the demand for real estate and the number of active competitors in the market. Design/methodology/approach: A Real Options Game model was developed. The parameters of the model were estimated with econometric tools using data from the Rio de Janeiro real estate market. Findings: The quantitative results obtained are intuitive in the sense that the larger the number of competitors, the lower the level of demand required for investment in new units, whereas the greater the volatility of demand, the greater the demand threshold for the investment to be optimal. Originality/value: This study modified the methodology of Grenadier (2002), providing a more adequate and robust specification of the uncertainty for the demand function, thus allowing more intuitive economic interpretations.

ABSTRACT This study presents a new approach for the definition of weight restrictions in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) for the one output, multiple inputs case, using the results of a Linear Regression model (LRM) developed with the same DEA variables. Thus, the limits of Wong-Beasley and Cone Ratio methods are chosen without interference from a decision maker, with DEA weight search intervals defined from the estimated standardized coefficients of a linear regression (which represent the statistical importance of the inputs for the definition of the DEA efficiency scores). As an example, weight restrictions for a DEA model (Constant Returns to Scale (CRS)) were obtained through the unrestricted, Wong-Beasley and Cone Ratio methods applied to a dataset consisting of hospital admissions (output), number of beds and number of health professionals (inputs) in the year 2016; and rankings were compared by a Spearman correlation procedure. The regression model had R 2 = 0.89 with coefficients 0.43 (professionals) and 0.54 (beds); and the Spearman correlation among rankings was at least R S 2 = 0.84. In conclusion, rankings were consistent and interpretable, and the approach circumvents the need for a subjective intervention by a decision maker when defining weight restrictions in DEA.

Abstract Governments worldwide have been encouraging private participation in transportation infrastructure. To increase the feasibility of a project, public-private partnership (PPP) may include guarantees or other support to reduce the risks for private investors. It is necessary to value these opportunities under a real options framework and thereby analyze the project's economic feasibility and risk allocation. However, within this structure, sponsors have an implicit option to abandon the project that should be simultaneously valued. Thus, this article proposes a hypothetical toll road concession in Brazil with a minimum traffic guarantee, a maximum traffic ceiling, and an implicit abandonment option. Different combinations of the minimum and maximum levels are presented, resulting in very high or even negative value added to the net present value (NPV). The abandonment option impacts the level of guarantee to be given. Governments should calibrate an optimal level of guarantees to avoid unnecessarily high costs, protect the returns of the sponsor, and lower the probability of abandonment.

No mercado de gás natural (GN), muitos contratos incorporam flexibilidades no volume, conhecidas como opções de swing, as quais concedem ao titular a opção de exercer o direito de receber volumes maiores ou menores, de acordo com o mercado. Neste artigo, o preço do GN é a principal fonte de incerteza e foi modelado com um processo estocástico seguindo o modelo de dois fatores de Schwartz e Smith (2000) ao qual foi incorporada a sazonalidade trimestral. Para estimar os preços à vista do GN, usando os preços dos contratos futuros do Henry Hub, implementou-se o filtro de Kalman. O apreçamento da opção foi realizado através do modelo de árvore binomial bivariável desenvolvido por Hahn e Dyer (2011). O valor da opção de swing foi positivo nos dois casos analisados, mostrando que essa opção tem valor e deve ser analisada para inclusão nos contratos de GN. As características do contrato analisado foram as mesmas especificadas em Jaillet, Ronn e Tompaidis (2004).

In the natural gas (NG) market, contracts incorporate flexibility in the volume of the product. These contracts are known as swing options. Such contracts allow the option holder to exercise the right to receive greater or smaller amounts of NG contracted in accordance with market. Variation in the price of NG, which is the main source of uncertainty, was modeled in this study as a stochastic process using the two-factor model of Schwartz and Smith (2000), which was incorporated into assessment of the quarterly seasonality. To estimate NG spot prices using the Henry Hub prices of futures contracts traded on the NYMEX, it was necessary to implement the Kalman filter. The pricing of the option was conducted using the binomial tree model bi-variable developed by Hahn and Dyer (2011). The value of the swing option was positive in both cases analyzed, indicating that this option should be considered for inclusion in NG contracts. The characteristics of the analysis were the same as those specified in Jaillet, Ronn and Tompaidis (2004).

A introdução do carro flex-fuel no mercado brasileiro em 2003 mudou a forma de decisão do consumidor. Se antes era necessário escolher o combustível pelo tipo de veículo, movido somente a gasolina ou somente a álcool, hoje é possível escolher um tipo de carro com duas opções de combustível. Essa flexibilidade gera uma vantagem econômica para o seu proprietário, mas qual o benefício financeiro de um carro flex-fuel em comparação a um carro movido somente a gasolina? Geograficamente, onde se localiza o proprietário que se beneficia mais dessa flexibilidade? Este estudo aplica a teoria de opções reais e a simulação estocástica para valorar a opção do carro flex para as cinco regiões geográficas do Brasil. Considera-se que os preços dos insumos são estocásticos e seguem o movimento de reversão à média. A previsão dos preços e o valor da opção são gerados através da simulação de Monte Carlo. Os resultados indicam que a opção de escolher o combustível mais barato adiciona considerável valor para o proprietário do carro flex em todas as regiões e modelos de carro considerados, sendo a região Sudeste a mais beneficiada pela opção flex.

The introduction of the flex-fuel car to the Brazilian market in 2003 considerably changed the consumer decision making process. Previously, it was necessary to choose the automobile type, and then the market moved to only gasoline or only sugarcane ethanol; currently, it is possible to choose a car that can run with a combination of these fuels. This flexibility generates economic advantages for the owner, but what are the financial benefits of flex-fuel technology? Geographically, where must the owner be located to have this flexibility? The present paper empirically applies the real options theory to an analysis of the options embedded in the flex-fuel car for five Brazilian geographic regions. The regional price differences and the consumer preferences within these regions were analyzed. For this purpose, historical fuel prices were considered to be stochastic, thus following mean reverting stochastic processes. Price forecasts and option values were generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that the option to choose the most inexpensive fuel adds considerable value for the flex-fuel car owner in all regions and car models considered, with the southern region seeing the greatest benefit in the flex option.

Este trabalho estudou o Índice de Sustentabilidade Empresarial (ISE) da Bolsa de Mercadorias e Futuros e Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo (BM&FBOVESPA), com o objetivo principal de analisar o desempenho histórico dos investimentos sustentáveis no mercado acionário brasileiro, considerando o período de dezembro de 2005 a dezembro de 2010. Foram utilizados, principalmente, os seguintes índices de desempenho: Sharpe, Treynor, Jensen, Sortino, Modigliani & Modigliani e Omega. Concluiu-se que, embora os investimentos sustentáveis tenham registrado características interessantes no mercado acionário brasileiro, tais como baixo risco diversificável e aumento de liquidez, não obtiveram, no período de análise, um desempenho financeiro satisfatório. À medida que a adoção de critérios que exijam elevado desempenho das empresas no que tange às questões sobre sustentabilidade se tornar obrigatória, esses investimentos tenderão à valorização.

We studied the Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE) of the Brazilian Mercantile, Futures and Stock Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA), with the main objective of analyzing the performance of sustainable investments in the Brazilian stock market during the period from December 2005 to December 2010. We mainly used the following measures: Sharpe, Treynor, Jensen, Sortino, Modigliani and Modigliani, and Omega. Our results show that although sustainable investments exhibited some interesting characteristics, such as low diversifiable risk and increasing liquidity, they did not achieve satisfactory financial performance in the analysis period. As the adoption of criteria that demand high performance of companies in relation to sustainability issues becomes mandatory, the value of these investments will tend to increase.