Has war become obsolete? Some argue that macro-historical social processes are leading war into obsolescence, while for others that pattern is explained by the fact that war is a lingering potential outcome of international politics. I argue that both answers reveal a fundamental problem with the debate about the ‘end of war’. The focus on securing predictions about the end of war keeps analyses trapped in either a teleological or nomothetical linearity and overshadows the varied set of contingent mechanisms that allow for non-violent outcomes to prevail in contentious political episodes. The ‘War on War’ could benefit from analyses that asses shifting configurations of mechanisms in power politics.

Abstract This essay aims to discuss the appropriation of the concept of emerging power to the field of international relations, the theoretical impact it inflicts on the discipline, and the duality of its formation as a theoretical category. The adjective emerging has been appropriated into the vocabulary of international relations, but such lexical novelty comprises a debate with earlier theorisations on intermediate states. It is argued that this dialogue between the transience in the narratives of change, brought up by the qualifier emerging powers, and the stasis from the theoretical accumulation on the condition from which it breaks through is a constitutive foundation for the concept as an analytical device for international relations.

Resumo O trabalho analisa o léxico “emergente” em sua apropriação no estudo das Relações Internacionais. O trabalho parte da observação de que o emprego desse predicado a fenômenos das Relações Internacionais carrega transformações em seu significado original, na literatura sobre mercados financeiros. A análise proposta está estruturada em três etapas. Primeiramente, observamos as transformações semânticas do termo em sua literatura original, bem como a historicidade envolta em sua apropriação pelas Relações Internacionais. Essa apropriação será sustentada, à continuação, através de um estudo quantitativo, utilizado como proxy da disseminação do emprego do léxico emergente na disciplina. Por fim, a análise conduz um estudo qualitativo sobre os padrões semânticos no emprego do termo na disciplina, de modo a obter um protótipo conceitual do termo apropriado. Na conclusão, serão discutidos alguns aspectos teórico-metodológicos dos resultados para utilizar o termo “emergente” como um conceito nas Relações Internacionais.

Abstract This work analyses the lexicon “emerging” in its appropriation as a category of International Relations. It is aimed to delimit a conceptual prototype of term from the connotative spectrum arisen from its denotation of international political subjects. The conceptual prototype of an “Emergent” is delimitated from the analysis of the “conceptual stretching” resulting from the “conceptual travelling” during its appropriation by International Relations. The analyses are constituted of three steps. At first, it is observed the semantic transformations of the lexicon in its original literature, in the light of the underlying historicity of the process. This appropriation is measured through the study of the term frequency of reference in seventeen editorial databases. The ending stage is consisted of labeling “family resemblances” in all publications qualified as A1 and A2 in the Qualis CAPES system that uses the lexicon “Emerging Market”, “Emerging Country” and “Emerging Power”. The analysis reveals that the transformation in the referents of the term “Emerging Markets” bequeath a political meaning for the qualifier, conducting itself to denotate International Relations phenomena. This process is correlated to an expansion of the references to the lexicon in academic journals on the matter. Acknowledging that, the conceptual prototype set the attributes of its essablished use. The work intends to contribute to the concept formation by systematizing its “State of Art” in International Relations. The connotative spectrum of the purposed conceptual prototype is expected to be theoretically hierarchized in further efforts.

RESUMO Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar o conceito de potências emergentes criado para a compreensão dos assuntos internacionais. O trabalho observa que o emprego do léxico emergentes - em relação aos mercados, países ou poderes - como qualificador para uma gama de fenômenos de relações internacionais tornou-se parte integrante da questão. Apesar disso, a denotação empírica do predicado está à frente da quantidade de esforços em sua contextualização teórica. Nossa hipótese metodológica é que a negação racional dos conceitos predominantes do espectro conotativo, reconhecendo a sabedoria incorporada sobre fenômenos cognatos sintetiza um quadro teórico sobre a sua utilização precisa.

ABSTRACT This paper aims to analyze the concept of emerging power established to the understanding of international affairs. The work observes that the use of the lexicon emerging - regarding to markets, countries or powers - as qualifier for a range of international relations phenomena became a constituent part of the matter. In spite of that, the empirical denotation of the predicate is ahead of the amount of efforts on its theoretical contextualization. Our methodological hypothesis is that the rational denial of the concepts prevailing connotative spectrum by acknowledging the embedded wisdom about cognate phenomena synthesizes a theoretical framework on its accurate use.