ABSTRACT The identification of erosion-susceptible areas is fundamental for the adoption of soil conservation practices. Thus, the best way to estimate the spatial pattern of soil erosion must be identified, in which the process uncertainties are also taken into consideration. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the spatial and temporal uncertainty of soil loss under two scenarios of sugarcane harvest management: green cane (GC) and burnt cane (BC). The study was carried out on a 200-ha area, in Tabapuã, São Paulo State, Brazil. A regular 626-point sampling grid was established in the area, with equidistant intervals of 50 m and a final plant density of about 3.3 samples per ha. The probability that the soil loss would exceed the tolerable limit of 6.67 t ha-1 yr-1 was estimated for each management scenario and after the five harvests. The temporal uncertainty was determined by integrating the estimated annual probabilities, representing the harvests. Areas with soil loss risks above the threshold were identified based on probability maps, generated from the individual and combined dichotomous variables. Soil losses from the BC were highest, during all five harvests. With the exception of the 5th harvest and the entire cultivation cycle under GC, all soil loss estimates were spatially dependent. From the 4th harvest under GC, the probability of the soil loss exceeding the threshold was above 80 % in zero percent of the area, whereas, for BC, the probability exceeded 80 % in 40 % of the area. The production cycle allowed the delimitation of priority areas for the adoption of conservation practices in each management. In the BC, areas with steeper slopes were more likely to exceed the threshold with lower uncertainties.

A avaliação da incerteza espacial das predições das perdas de nutrientes por erosão, associada aos modelos de paisagem, é importante ferramenta na análise e no planejamento conservacionista do solo. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a incerteza espacial e o local na predição das taxas de empobrecimento do solo por nutrientes (P, K, Ca e Mg) em razão da erosão hídrica em dois sistemas de colheita da cana-de-açúcar (cana crua e queimada), utilizando-se a simulação sequencial gaussiana (SSG). O estudo foi realizado em uma área de 200 ha, localizada em Tabapuã, Estado de São Paulo, sudeste do Brasil. Uma malha de amostragem regular foi estabelecida na área, com intervalos equidistantes de 50 m, totalizando 626 pontos. A taxa de empobrecimento do solo foi calculada com base na relação entre concentração dos nutrientes no sedimento erodido e os atributos químicos do solo original, ponto a ponto. Os dados foram submetidos à análise estatística descritiva e geoestatística. A taxa média de empobrecimento do solo para todos os nutrientes avaliados foi superior no cenário de cana queimada em relação ao cenário de cana crua (teste t-Student; p<0,05). Em ambos os cenários, a ordem da perda dos nutrientes foi: Ca>Mg>K>P. Áreas com maior taxa de empobrecimento do solo foram relacionadas à maior declividade da paisagem. As menores incertezas estão associadas às áreas com maiores taxas de empobrecimento do solo e declividades. Por sua vez, as maiores incertezas estão associadas às áreas de transição entre as pedoformas côncava e convexa.

The assessment of spatial uncertainty in the prediction of nutrient losses by erosion associated with landscape models is an important tool for soil conservation planning. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the spatial and local uncertainty in predicting depletion rates of soil nutrients (P, K, Ca, and Mg) by soil erosion from green and burnt sugarcane harvesting scenarios, using sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS). A regular grid with equidistant intervals of 50 m (626 points) was established in the 200-ha study area, in Tabapuã, São Paulo, Brazil. The rate of soil depletion (SD) was calculated from the relation between the nutrient concentration in the sediments and the chemical properties in the original soil for all grid points. The data were subjected to descriptive statistical and geostatistical analysis. The mean SD rate for all nutrients was higher in the slash-and-burn than the green cane harvest scenario (Student’s t-test, p<0.05). In both scenarios, nutrient loss followed the order: Ca>Mg>K>P. The SD rate was highest in areas with greater slope. Lower uncertainties were associated to the areas with higher SD and steeper slopes. Spatial uncertainties were highest for areas of transition between concave and convex landforms.