RESUMO: Com base nos dados do painel de 134 municípios (cidades, distritos) na província de Shandong de 1998 a 2017, as características de variação espacial e temporal da ecoeficiência agrícola na província de Shandong foram analisadas usando vários métodos, como o modelo SBM (Medida baseada EM estacas) supereficiente. Considerando indesejados produção e modelo STIRPAT (Impactos estocásticos da regressão da população, da afluência e da tecnologia), ajudará a esclarecer a direção da melhoria da eco eficiência agrícola na província de Shandong e fornecerá uma base para o desenvolvimento da agricultura ecológica. Os resultados mostraram que (1) em 1998-2017, a ecoeficiência agrícola da província de Shandong mostrou uma tendência ascendente na flutuação, mas o valor geral da eficiência foi baixo. (2) A distribuição espacial da distribuição esporádica inicial da área de alto valor se formou gradualmente de oeste para leste, distribuição zonal “ “baixo-alto-baixo-alto”” (3) O lucro líquido per capita dos agricultores e o valor acrescentado da indústria primária foram significativamente correlacionados positivamente com a ecoeficiência agrícola da província de Shandong. O nível de mecanização, a área de plantio per capita, o apoio financeiro ao nível agrícola e a estrutura de plantio, entre eles, o valor acrescentado da indústria primária e o apoio financeiro à agricultura em 0,75 quantil, a estrutura de plantio em 0,25 e 0,75 quantil na ecoeficiência agrícola da província de Shandong não é significativa.

ABSTRACT: Based on the panel data of 134 counties (cities and districts) from 1998 to 2017, the temporal-spatial variation characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural eco-efficiency in Shandong Province were analyzed by using various methods, such as the super-efficiency SBM (slacks-based measure) model considering undesired output and the STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model, which helps clarify the improvements needed for agricultural eco-efficiency and provides a basis for the development of ecological agriculture in Shandong Province. Results showed the following: (1) During 1998-2017, the agricultural eco-efficiency of Shandong Province showed a fluctuating increasing tendency, but the overall efficiency value wasrelatively low. (2) The agricultural eco-efficiency of Shandong Province had a significant regional disparity, and its spatial agglomeration gradually weakened. The spatial distribution had a sporadic distribution of high value areas at first and then gradually formed the “low-high-low-high” zonal distribution from west to east. (3) The net income per capita of farmers and the added value of the primary industry had a significantly positive correlation with the agricultural eco-efficiency of Shandong Province, while the mechanization level, the planting area per capita, the level of financial support to agriculture and the planting structure exhibited a mainly negative correlation with the agricultural eco-efficiency of Shandong Province. Moreover, the added value of the primary industry and the financial support to agriculture in the 0.75 quantile had no significant influence on the agricultural eco-efficiency of Shandong Province, and the planting structure in the 0.25 and 0.75 quantiles also had no significant influence.

De acuerdo con el uso actual del suelo en la ciudad de Yancheng, en el este de China, este artículo establece la seguridad ecológica del sistema de tierras desde las perspectivas económica, social y ecológica. A partir de la Teoría de las Catástrofes y el modelo ambiental de presión-estado-respuesta (PSR), el propósito de esta investigación fue determinar el grado de seguridad ecológica del suelo en la localidad de Yancheng entre 2002 y 2011 y determinar las condiciones para asegurar el desarrollo sustentable de la región. Los resultados muestran que sobre estos diez años los valores de presión, estado, respuesta y sintéticos fueron evaluados como seguros en 2003 y 2007, como nivel medio en 2002, entre 2004 y 2006, cayeron a inseguros en 2008 y 2009, y muy inseguros para 2011 y 2012. El nivel de seguridad y las condiciones de suelo en Yancheng se han disminuido generalmente. Durante este período, el patrón de uso de la tierra en la ciudad de Yancheng estuvo bajo una gran presión por el conflicto entre la rápida urbanización y el desarrollo económico y la conservación y la rehabilitación ecoambiental. Esta investigación muestra que las condiciones para los ecosistemas terrestres no son óptimas y que por lo tanto es necesario llamar la atención de los departamentos de Gobierno responsables. Las posibles políticas futuras deben enfocarse en mitigar estos problemas a través del control al crecimiento urbano y el mejoramiento de la calidad de vida, la protección de los humedales y los bosques, la aplicación de conceptos científicos al desarrollo, la coordinación del avance económico y el suelo, y el fortalecimiento de las funciones de control en la planeación del uso de la tierra.

Based on actual land use in Yancheng city, this paper establishes the ecological security of the land index system from the perspectives of economy, society and ecological environment. Using the catastrophe theory and pressure-state-response (PSR) model, the purpose of the research was to judge the degree of land ecological security in Yancheng city from 2002 to 2011 and determine the requirements to ensure the sustainable development of this region. The results showed that over the ten years, the pressure, state, response and synthetic values of the land ecological security were evaluated as safe in 2003 and 2007 and at middle level in 2002 and for 2004 to 2006 and then dropped to insecure for 2008 to 2009 and very insecure for 2011 to 2012. The ecological security level and circumstance of land use in Yancheng city has generally declined. During this period, the land use pattern of Yancheng city was under tremendous pressure from the conflict between rapid urbanization and economic development, as well as conservation and rehabilitation of the eco-environment. This research shows that conditions for the land ecosystems of Yancheng city are not optimistic and, as such, should draw the attention of responsible government departments. Future policy options should aim to mitigate these problems through the control of population growth and the improvement to quality of life, protection of wetland and forest land, application of scientific concepts of development, coordination of economic development and land utility, and strengthening the control functions of land-use planning.