Flare type countermeasures that use the composition designated as MTV (Magnesium, Teflon®, Viton®), are the most used by Air Forces around the world. In Brazil, these “flares” are used in several locations and are subjected to different handling, storage and operation conditions that can affect their performance and compromise their service life. In this work, the Monte Carlo method was applied to estimate an empirical model to predict the lifetime of these countermeasures, using as variables the temperature and the relative humidity of the place where the material is used. The results were analyzed using multiple linear regression and analysis of variance. The kinetic parameters of material thermal degradation, such as Activation Energy and Pre-exponential Factor, and the estimated failure times of these countermeasures were determined. The results pointed out to strong temperature influence on material degradation resulting in different lifetimes for each site studied.

This article aims to estimate the shelf life of the PBX by thermal analysis estimated by the Arrhenius equation, equivalent to the time of storage at accelerated aging. The PBX was subjected to accelerated aging in an oven at controlled temperature 60 ºC for periods of 5, 10, 15 and 25 weeks, which are equivalent to 5, 10, 15 and 25 of natural aging, respectively, at a temperature of 25 ºC. The curves of thermal decomposition of the samples were obtained by the DSC (Differential Scanning Calorimetry) technique. The kinetic parameters, such as the activation energy and pre-exponential factor, were determined by the Ozawa method and the Kissinger method. Initial results of this study indicated that, for a period of 25 years of storage in the cargo hold, the material did not change this aging significantly. To study the life of PBX analyzes, vacuum chemical stability were also conducted to verify the safety of explosive handling.