FUNDAMENTO: Escores de risco apresentam dificuldades para obter o mesmo desempenho em diferentes populações. OBJETIVO: Criar um modelo simples e acurado para avaliação do risco nos pacientes operados de doença coronariana e/ou valvar no Instituto do Coração da Universidade de São Paulo (InCor-HCFMUSP). MÉTODOS: Entre 2007 e 2009, 3.000 pacientes foram operados consecutivamente de doença coronariana e/ou valvar no InCor-HCFMUSP. Desse registro, dados de 2/3 dos pacientes foram utilizados para desenvolvimento do modelo (técnica de bootstrap) e de 1/3 para validação interna do modelo. O desempenho do modelo (InsCor) foi comparado aos complexos 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (2000BP) e EuroSCORE (ES). RESULTADOS: Apenas 10 variáveis foram selecionadas: Idade > 70 anos; sexo feminino; cirurgia de revascularização coronariana + valva; infarto de miocárdio < 90 dias; reoperação; tratamento cirúrgico da valva aórtica; tratamento cirúrgico da valva tricúspide; creatinina < 2mg/dL; fração de ejeção < 30%; e eventos. O teste de Hosmer Lemeshow para o InsCor foi de 0,184, indicando uma excelente calibração. A área abaixo da curva ROC foi de 0,79 para o InsCor, 0,81 para o ES e 0,82 para o 2000BP, confirmando que os modelos são bons e similares na discriminação. CONCLUSÕES: O InsCor e o ES tiveram melhor desempenho que o 2000BP em todas as fases da validação; pórem o novo modelo, além de se identificar com os fatores de risco locais, é mais simples e objetivo para a predição de mortalidade nos pacientes operados de doença coronariana e/ou valvar no InCor-HCFMUSP.

BACKGROUND: Risk scores show difficulties to attain the same performance in different populations. OBJECTIVE: To create a simple and accurate risk assessment model for patients submitted to surgery due to coronary and/or valvular disease at Instituto do Coração da Universidade de São Paulo (InCor-HCFMUSP). METHODS: Between 2007 and 2009, 3,000 patients were submitted to surgical procedure due to coronary artery and/or valvular disease at InCor-HCFMUSP. From this record, data of 2/3 of the patients were used for model development (bootstrap technique), and 1/3 for internal validation of the model. The performance of the model (InsCor) was compared to the 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet (2000BP) and EuroSCORE (ES) complexes. RESULTS: Only 10 variables were selected: age > 70 years, female sex; coronary revascularization + valve, myocardial infarction < 90 days; reoperation; surgical treatment of aortic valve; surgical treatment of tricuspid valve; creatinine < 2mg/dL; ejection fraction < 30%, and events. The Hosmer Lemeshow test for the InsCor was 0.184, indicating excellent calibration. The area under the ROC curve was 0.79 for the InsCor, 0.81 for the ES and 0.82 for 2000BP, confirming that the models are good and have similar discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: The InsCor and ES performed better than 2000BP at all stages of validation, but the new model, in addition to showing identification with the local risk factors, is simpler and more objective for mortality prediction in patients undergoing surgery due to coronary and/or valvular disease at InCor-HCFMUSP.

INTRODUCTION: In elderly patients with acute myocardial infarction, very little is known about the role of surgical myocardial revascularization and percutaneous coronary intervention (invasive therapies - IT), especially in the context of long-term outcomes after hospital discharge. METHODS: We analyzed 1588 patients with MI who had been included prospectively in a databank and followed for up to 7.5 years. In this population, 548 patients were >70 years old (elderly group - EG), and 1040 were <70 years of age (younger group - YG); 1088 underwent IT during hospitalization, and the remaining 500 were treated medically (conservative therapy - CT). Patients were monitored either by visit or by phone at least once a year. A standard questionnaire was administered to all patients. The impact of IT was analyzed with both non-adjusted and adjusted models. RESULTS: By the end of the follow-up period, the survival rates for the IT and CT groups were, respectively, 71.9% versus 47.2% in the global population (hazard ratio=0.55, P<0.001), 81.5% versus 66.6% in the YG (hazard ratio=0.68, P=0.018) and 48.8% versus 20.3% in the EG (hazard ratio=0.58, P<0.001). In the adjusted models, the hazard ratios were 0.62 (P<0.001) in the global population, 0.74 in the YG (P=0.073) and 0.64 (P=0.001) in the EG. CONCLUSION: Long-term follow-up of patients with myocardial infarction revealed that IT during the in-hospital phase was at least as effective in elderly patients as in younger patients.

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a geometria e a função do ventrículo esquerdo (VE) após a troca mitral com tração e fixação dos papilares, em portadores de insuficiência cardíaca terminal com insuficiência mitral secundária. MÉTODO: Dos 20 pacientes avaliados, 70% eram homens, com idade média de 50,2 anos e 55% recebiam inotrópicos. A fração de ejeção (FEVE) foi menor que 30% em todos; 85% estavam em classe funcional (CF) IV. Dezoito receberam próteses de pericárdio bovino e dois, mecânicas. Os períodos considerados foram: 3, 6, 12 e 18 meses. As variáveis consideradas: volume sistólico do VE (VS), a FEVE, os diâmetros sistólico e diastólico finais (DSF e DDF) e os volumes sistólico e diastólico finais (VSF e VDF). No estudo estatístico, empregou-se da análise de variância (AV) e o teste de Friedmann (F). A sobrevida foi aferida pelo método de Kaplan-Meyer. RESULTADOS: Dois (10%) faleceram no período imediato. A sobrevida no primeiro ano foi de 85%, no segundo, 44%, no terceiro, 44%, no quarto, 44% e no quinto, 44%. A comparação entre pré e 3 meses, empregando-se a AV, não revelou alteração significativa para o VS (p=0,086). Houve acréscimo da FEVE (p=0,008) e decréscimo do DDF (p=0,038); do DSF (p=0,008); do VDF (p=0,029) e do VSF (p=0,009). Os momentos pré, 3 e 6 meses, com o teste F, não revelaram alterações. Entre os momentos pré, 3 meses e final, empregando-se a AV, não houve significância. CONCLUSÃO: Há melhora da FEVE, dos VDF, VSF, DDF e DSF; até o terceiro mês. A partir de então, as variáveis permanecem estáveis.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed at evaluating results of mitral valve replacement using a new technique of complete chordae tendineae adjustment for left ventricular remodeling. METHODS: Twenty end-stage idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy patients with severe functional mitral valve regurgitation underwent mitral valve replacement. Seventeen (85%) were in functional class IV. Both anterior and posterior leaflets of the mitral valve were divided to obtain 4 pillars of chordae tendineae. These were displaced with traction toward the left atrium and anchored between the mitral annulus and a valvular prosthesis. To evaluate the left ventricular remodeling, Doppler echocardiography was performed. For statistical analysis, variance analysis and the Friedman's test were employed. RESULTS: Two (10%) early deaths occurred. Kaplan-Meyer showed survival at one year post-operative was 85%, 2 years it was 44%, at 3 years 44%, at 4 years 44% and at 5 years it was 44%. In the 48- and 54-month follow-ups, the McNemar test showed improvement in the functional class (p<0.001). In the third month of follow-up, variance analysis showed improvement in the ejection fraction (p=0.008) and reductions of the end diastolic diameter (p=0.038), end systolic diameter (p=0.008), end systolic volume (p=0.029) and end diastolic volume (p=0.009). No statistical differences were noted in the systolic volume. Comparing pre-operative and third- and six-month follow-ups, the Friedman test showed no statistical differences for all studied variables. Variance analyses between pre, three-month and final evaluations showed no significant differences. CONCLUSION: This technique of mitral valve replacement improved the left ventricle ejection fraction and decreased the end diastolic and systolic diameters and the end systolic diastolic volumes up to the third month of follow-up. From then on the variables stabilized.